April 15, 2010 and the Level of Taxes

Each April 15 produces a spate of polls on the public support or resistance to paying taxes. Gallup records that, after three decades of 60 percent or more of Americans say taxes were too high, the G.W. Bush era of tax cuts early in this century appeared to help drop the number to about half of the public.

And, it nearly equals those who say taxes were about right (only a sliver of 3% of Americans say taxes are too low). This year, 48 percent say taxes are too high and 45 percent about right.

Attitudes about taxes correspond to tax levels, or at least awareness of levels, from popular media, political discussion and actually paying taxes, especially income. The tax revolt so often predicted in 2009 has not started for most people. But one bit of news for those looking for signs that the Tea Party may have legs is that Gallup reports 63 percent of Americans expect their taxes to go up. Even a near majority of Democrats believe it’s likely.

Health Care - Who's Ahead?

It is still not clear if the Democrats maintain or if Republicans will gain political ground from the March 21 health care vote. Early polls appear to indicate that, while the bill and its approval is still not favored by a majority of the public, at least Democrats have increased the level of enthusiasm for voting among their core supporters.

And, of course, failure to pass was not an option. President Obama, Speak Pelosi and the Party’s reputation in general would have been devastated.

Both parties are fighting to define the post passage environment. Democrats are using Obama speeches and advertising (Congresswoman Markey is on TV in the Denver metro area) and Republicans are benefiting from Sarah Palin and the law suit challenges from the Republican attorneys general.

Gallup reports that, as of March 28, the Republicans appear to have surged ahead of Democrats in the generic ballot question, the first time in March.

As Gallup points out, Republicans only need to be close to Democrats to pick up congressional seats due to their history of stronger turnout. Years they lead in the congressional ballot test, they pick up seats – 1950, 2002 and 1994 when they won the House with a 54-seat pick up.

(See also: Gallup-Mar.25; Gallup-Mar. 30; 9News)

Global Warming Becomes a Political Issue

Concern over global warming peaked in 2007, but has dropped as an item of concern, including a five percent drop just in the last year (41% in 2007; 33% in 2009; down to 28% in 2010). There are many reasons for the drop, including a sense the environment has improved in recent years and a growing view that, while the economy is vulnerable, environmental protection is less important. In addition, global warming has become a polarizing political issue regularly attacked by talk radio and suffering from credibility issues due to controversies around the scientists and politicians who promote it.

New Gallup polls describe some of the reasons for the drop in concern as:

• Growing number of Americans believe the “seriousness of global warming is exaggerated by the news.”

• The issue has taken on a political context, and conservatives and moderates are more inclined to say the news exaggerates the seriousness of global warming.

• The credibility of global warming has even dropped with people who say they understand the issue very well and who claim to be active or sympathetic to the environmental movement.

(See Gallup polls on global warming: 126560, 126563 and 126788)

Democratic Underdog Wins the Caucuses

Andrew Romanoff, who needed to show grassroots support, won the caucus against U.S. Senator Michael Bennet. Romanoff, with little campaign financing, had more than half the caucus attendees, as shown in precinct straw polls conducted around the state.

Bennet, with millions in the bank, spent profusely on direct mail and get-out-the-vote robocalls. Most of the top leadership of the party, including the president, endorsed him. President Obama even visited the state in February to assist him. But, in his first election outing lost.

Romanoff must now translate the caucus support into more financing and momentum for the August 10 primary.

(See articles in Denver Post, Roll Call and National Journal)

Conservatives Do Well in Republican Caucus

In precinct caucus results with national implications, Ken Buck, Weld County district attorney, tied frontrunner former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton.

“Analysts including Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli said Buck’s strong showing signals that the vocal group of conservative activists could affect Republican elections.

‘The question has been how big is that group and whether they can make a difference,’ Ciruli said Tuesday. ‘Tonight is the first count.’

He cautioned that precinct caucuses are a microcosm of the most dedicated party members, and that the Buck campaign must still demonstrate is has the money to reach hundreds of thousands of primary voters.”

 Denver Post, 3-17-10

Although former Congressman Scott McInnis won a solid majority of caucus goers, conservative activists Dan Mares did manage to get above the 30 percent threshold for ballot access. Unless conservative attendees switch before the spring convention, McInnis will have a primary.

Concern for Environmental Problems Wanes

Although Americans strongly hold advanced developed countries’ attitudes toward the environment, including worry about global warming, the general perception that environmental conditions are improving, the deep recession and controversies surrounding global warming have reduced public concern about the environment.

A recent Gallup poll records Americans are less concerned about top environmental problems from a year ago.

The quality of drinking water consistently tends to be the public’s primary concern. Several polls conducted for Great Outdoors Colorado during the 1990s and 2000s confirm that water pollution is also the top worry in Colorado. This year, air pollution tends toward the middle of the list of concerns after being near the top concern in 1989. The decline reflects improvements in air quality, producing a lower salience in the news.

There have been dramatic drops in many of the concerns since 1989. For example, worrying about pollution of rivers, lakes and reservoirs dropped from 72 percent in 1989 to 46 percent in 2010.

Heightened concern about global warming has been a more recent phenomena, reflecting the intense publicity (the Al Gore factor), but a 13 percent drop off since its peak in 2007 (41%) has been significant.

2010 Predictions

The Denver Business Journal published our 2010 predictions as the new decade begins. Topics include: economy, national and Colorado politics, values, and communication technology. Change is accelerating and the oscillations are widening. The next decade will be a challenge for forecasters.