Colorado Concern Help Forge a Tax Compromise

Colorado State Capitol

Colorado property taxes are rising rapidly, along with property valuations. Major powers in state government, the governor, both parties and numerous special interests know it could affect the midterm elections. Tax policy changes are inclined toward gridlock. Democrats control the legislature and prefer protecting programs, especially school funding, but the Democratic governor is prone to tax reductions and the interest groups are balanced on taxes between the K-12 education and its allies and the business community representing commercial and residential property owners.

Enter Colorado Concern using a fourth branch of Colorado government – the initiative. The group drafted a ballot initiative to lower property taxes for both residential and commercial owners and got onto the signature phase providing both motivation for action from the other branches and a seat at the table.

The process is working. The Colorado legislature, in a bipartisan fashion, is moving a property tax cut the governor will apparently sign. Gridlock was broken with threat of voter action at the ballot box and a lot of effort in and around the Capitol.

Read The Colorado Sun: Colorado governor, lawmakers unveil plan to slash property taxes by $700M to head off business group’s ballot measure

Abortion – It’s Back

It was well-known abortion rights were on the defensive and could be lost partially or totally during this Supreme Court term. But, the drama of an unprecedented Supreme Court draft opinion leak and the absolutist position of Justice Alito has put the issue front and center for the upcoming primaries and possibly the midterm elections.

Voters do not support overturning Roe v. Wade, but do accept restrictions. Frankly, just accepting the state of Mississippi’s 15-week limit could not have had the drama or polarizing effect as the Alito leak.

• 58% don’t overturn, 32% overturn (Gallup, 3-22); less likely to support an overturn Roe candidate 58%, independents 75%, swing states 57% (NBC, 3-22)
• 48% support 15-week ban, 43% oppose (WSJ, 3-22)
• 50% oppose 6-week ban, 42% support (WSJ, 3-22)

Pro-choice and anti-abortion activists face off in front of the Supreme
Court, Washington, D.C., May 3, 2022 | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Some election factors:

1. Democrats are in trouble this year. They welcome a topic different than inflation, crime or immigration that the majority of people agree with – maintaining Roe v. Wade.
2. They want to appeal to the swing voters, especially the young and suburban women that they did well with in 2020.
3. Taking something away from people (abortion rights) is often a stronger message than providing a benefit.
4. Will the Trump-McConnell Supreme Court become a villain in this election?
5. With the short news cycle, will the issue maintain salience into November?

See:
NBC News: With upcoming abortion decision, Supreme Court could rattle midterm campaigns
The Hill: More Americans support than oppose 15-week abortion bans: WSJ poll

U.S. and Japan Diplomacy Program: Impact of Ukraine on Asian Policy – PowerPoint

The Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research’s Diplomacy Program webinar series on the tensions and challenges in the Indo-Pacific will be posted shortly. The three March webinars with seven professors from Japan and the Korbel School were highly impacted by the Beijing Winter Olympics accord between Russia and China and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Professor Floyd Ciruli presented a PowerPoint with commentary describing the major issues that represented the geopolitical backdrop for our 2022 program.

SEE SLIDES HERE

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida attends a virtual meeting
with U.S. President Joe Biden, Jan. 21, 2022 | Credit Kyodo via Reuters

IN THE FORUM

Will the U.S. and Japan Step Up for Taiwan?
Can South Korea and Japan Work Together Despite Differences?
China-Russia Pact – A New World of Disorder
Authoritarian Behavior Costs Russia and China Support

Read the latest postings for Crossley Center events and Colorado, national and world public opinion analyses on the Crossley Center website.

Sweden and Finland Consider Joining NATO

The February 24 invasion of Ukraine has had enormous unintentional consequences for Russia. NATO, which had been struggling to find a unifying purpose and was denigrated by the Trump administration and Macron’s France, has been revived to confront the threat of Russian aggression. President Macron became a champion of NATO’s resistance to Russia and used it to help defeat an anti-NATO, pro-Vladimir Putin candidate, Marine Le Pen, in the April 24 presidential election. Germany, famous for its light military commitment to NATO as part of its WWII memory, has shifted to much more militant position with a significantly stepped-up budget commitment.

But possibly the most dramatic consequence of the invasion is the consideration of Sweden and Finland to shift from their historical neutral stance to join the alliance. Both countries joined the EU in 1995, but that didn’t require or involve joining NATO. Although the EU’s defense capacity is not comparable to NATO, a threat didn’t seem imminent. 

However, circumstances have changed. Russia’s much more aggressive foreign policy since the invasion of Georgia in 2006 and the hybrid military aggression in the Crimea and Ukraine in 2014 began shifting leadership opinion in the two countries toward a need for a stronger alliance. The full-scale invasion of 2022 has now moved public opinion toward joining NATO. Recent polls show 57% of Swedes support joining (up 6 points in a month) and 64 percent if Finland joins. In Finland, 20 to 30 percent support for joining NATO has increased to 60 percent in latest polls.

Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson (L) welcomes Finnish
Prime Minister Sanna Marin prior to a meeting on whether to seek 
NATO membership in Stockholm, Sweden, April 13, 2022
Photo: Paul Wennerholm/TT News Agency/AFP via Getty Images

Read:

Defense One: NATO membership for Sweden would be ‘a small step for the military, but a giant leap for the political system

Foreign Affairs: NATO’s Nordic expansion

Crime, Another Social Issue Democrats Are Struggling With

Crime, especially in big cities, has risen and is the third most important worry for Americans, with more than half (53%) saying they are “greatly worried” about it (Gallup, March 2022). Other polls show it’s the second highest concern after inflation for voters, and Republicans now have a 15-point advantage over Democrats on the issue (Fox, Jan. 2022).

Colorado is engaged in a high-profile legislative struggle to deal with a crime surge, which Republicans blame on Democrats’ recent criminal justice reform measures related to Fentanyl. Democratic progressives are resisting any changes that would recriminalize possession, especially of smaller amounts. Colorado Democrats join big city mayors, DAs and governors struggling with high crime rates and recent post George Floyd (2020) reforms.

Immigration: No Solutions, Lots of Political Impact

Democrats are being eviscerated by immigration. They appear to have no solution to the flood of immigrants at the southern border and its four border states (especially Texas and Arizona). Vulnerable congressional and senate candidates are panicking. Republicans are blaming President Biden and Democrats, and polls show immigration is likely to be important for the midterms.

Gallup reports that 58 percent of Americans are dissatisfied with the level of immigration, up 8 points since the start of the Biden administration and by about four-to-one dissatisfied people want less immigration. Americans concerned about the issue is also up. Sixty percent of Americans say they are worried about illegal immigration (41% worried a “great deal” and 19% a “fair amount”) (survey of March 1-18, 2022), a decade-long record high, just below the 45 percent worried a “great deal” in 2007 when illegal immigration legislation was being debated in Congress.

Republicans

Highlighting the election impact, Republican concern is higher than its usual elevated level, with 68 percent worried a “great deal.” Sixty-nine percent say they want less immigration. This concern represents the history of the Trump administration’s focus on the wall and the recent emphasis of Republican governors and Senate leaders on the border.

Democrats

Democrats, however, in recent years have lost concern about the issue. Only 18 percent of Democrats now have a “great deal” of concern. Only 11 percent of Democrats dissatisfied with the level of immigration want less. However, an equally small 15 percent want it to increase. Most of the political space is occupied by advocates for immigrants and nervous midterm Democrats who have made it nearly impossible for the Biden administration to craft politically acceptable solutions.

This poll was conducted before the Biden administration may allow the lifting of Title 42 (May 23), emergency COVID power that allowed border agents to turn migrants back without seeking asylum. It has become the main talking point for Republicans and alarm for Democrats today.

Macron Wins, But by Bigger Margin Than Expected

Previous blog posts have pointed out French pollsters have a good track record in their final election predictions in spite of not being able to publish any results collected beyond the Friday before the Sunday election (April 24).

This year, polls showed President Macron ahead from the start of the April 10 runoff. His point spread grew to ten points on Friday. He won by 16 points (58% to 42%), a difference at least partially explained by the likely continued trend toward Macron over the weekend. In addition, there was a larger than usual abstention from voting, which frequently makes final projections difficult.

Much of the national and international media coverage was taken by Marine Le Pen’s recovery from her 32 percent loss in 2017 and her focus on economic issues, which appeared to be attracting voters. But in the end, Le Pen was still highly vulnerable to her hard right history and platform. Nor was she helped after the Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine by her association with Russian nationalist politics (anti-EU, anti-NATO) and President Putin.

Will France’s nationalist right find a new, more acceptable champion? Will the concerns she articulated grow in national importance? Can Macron’s centrist party find a majority?

Read The Buzz:
If Debate Doesn’t Move Numbers, Macron Wins Close
French Pollsters Get It Right