Germany Has New Leader, But No Clear Direction

Angela Merkel, hailed for her leadership skills beyond Germany, led a final governing coalition that was highly unstable with repeated changes of key players. Nor was she able to pick a successor as her position weakened in recent years after local election losses.

That instability will continue after the recent close election with the electorate divided among four major parties. The winner, Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), barely beat Merkel’s Christian Democratic coalition (CDU/CSU). Although the SPD vote improved since the last elections (2017), it beat the CDU/CSU by only 1.5 percent, receiving barely a quarter (25.7%) of the national vote. Because of the fragmented result, it will likely take months of negotiations with other parties to build a parliamentary majority and assemble new government.

Scholz is a known quantity serving as the current finance minister in the Merkel government. The new configuration will be more left of the Merkel government because the SPD, which was the center-left member of the coalition, must form a coalition with the Green Party. But, it will be likely as unstable as Merkel’s final years as it must also join with the Free Democratic Party, a classical liberal free-market party. All three potential partners have very different positions on key issues. They are mostly united by wanting to end the dominance of the Christian Democrats.

As the election results show, the more left parties gained strength since 2017. The issue that dominated this election tuned on the devastating floods in July that made climate change the top issue, benefiting both the Greens and the SPD. Also, examining late polls show the candidates made a difference with CDU/CSU candidate Armin Laschet, seen joking and laughing at an event during the floods, damaging the party’s support after a storm of criticism.

Congratulations Chancellor – DU Campus in the Mountains

Congratulations to University of Denver Chancellor Jeremy Haefner for helping direct the purchase and creation of a new mountain campus in Larimer County near Roosevelt National Forest and Red Feather Lakes. It will serve as both a retreat and nature classroom.

Haefner will be installed this week as DU’s 19th chancellor. What a great gift for generations of future students.

Thanks to James Kennedy for the gift and the DU Board of Trustees for the leadership.

Japan’s Party Bosses Pick Fumio Kishida Over Taro Kono. Consensus Over Reform.

Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party selected former foreign minister, Fumio Kishida, a 64-year-old politician known for avoiding controversy and building party consensus. But, he’s less popular with the public than his leading opponent, Taro Kono, a Georgetown graduate and a good communicator, including in English, but he was known as a maverick who advocated reform.

The vote was close and required a second vote, which gave the party bosses more clout (LDP vote Sept. 29, full Diet vote Oct. 4). Conservatives united behind Kishida. The party leaders, although concerned about winning parliamentary elections scheduled October 31, felt simply having a new leader after the unpopular Yoshihide Suga and the improved conditions related to COVID-19 would be sufficient to hold their majority.

In terms of foreign policy, no change is expected. Kishida is an establishment candidate with a conservative reputation. The Biden administration has prioritized Asia and the China threat. Japan’s leadership has been fully supportive, and with the continued conservative orientation of the new prime minister and government, it should not change.

Fumio Kishida (R) succeeds Yoshihide Suga (L) as
Japan’s new prime minister | Photo via eminetra.com

See:
WSJ: In Japan, Missile Defense Advocate Set to Be Prime Minister
The Buzz: Japan’s Ruling Party Begins to Pick Next Prime Minister

China Rattling Its Sabers Toward Taiwan While Declaring Commitment to Peace

On October 2, China escalated its military threats toward Taiwan with a record number of incursions into Taiwan’s airspace. Two separate incursions took place with 20 planes in the daytime and 19 at night.

Shortly before, Chinese President Xi Jinping (Sept. 22) told the UN General Assembly: “China has never and will never invade or bully others, or seek hegemony.”

China sent anti-submarine aircraft, fighter jets and warships to
the southwest and southeast of Taiwan | Photo: Xinhua

See:

CNN: China sends 77 warplanes into Taiwan defense zone over two days, Taipei says
The Buzz: Build More Ships

KOA – Was There Disappointment in the Final Commission Map?

April Zesbaugh, Floyd Ciruli and Marty Lenz

A key topic in a KOA interview with April Zesbaugh and Marty Lenz (9-29-21) concerned disappointment in the final map produced by the new Colorado Independent Congressional Redistricting Commission. My view was that voters in 2012 were promised more competitive districts and the map favors all seven of Colorado’s incumbents. The Commission was sensitive to the competition question. It was one of the factors that required 7 votes to get agreement on a final map.

The biggest disappointment for Democrats was that Lauren Boebert’s district went from a 5 percent win in 2020 to a 9 percent potential advantage according to the Commission staff calculations. Democrats had already raised over $1 million for a candidate who no longer lives in the district.

Republicans are somewhat pleased that District 7 Democrat Ed Perlmutter only has a 7 percent advantage in a new district that includes his home county of Jefferson, but extends south down the center of the state.

Both parties and the Hispanic community should be competitive in the new 8th district that runs from the north Denver suburbs to Greeley in Weld County. The partisan advantage is judged to be nearly dead even.

Clearly, the Commission worked very hard for several months. It held 36 public hearings throughout the state and staff published three preliminary maps before the final was approved. The biggest challenge was balancing the often competing guidelines to have an equal number in each district (721,714 required) and make them “compact,” “contiguous,” maintain “communities of interest” following civil rights laws, and finally, be competitive as possible.

Natalie Meyer RIP

We miss Natalie Meyer, a Colorado Secretary of State that believed the job should be professional and non-partisan. She served during the Reagan to Clinton presidencies and with Democratic governors Lamm and Romer (1983-1995).

She believed voters were the sovereign, and during those years, Colorado had fair and accurate counts. Media, pollsters and analysts could depend on the results and the availability of the data. She just passed away. Thank you for your service, Natalie.

Natalie Meyer | Photo: Michael Hesse

Bloomberg News Sees Latinos as Winners in Colorado’s New Congressional Map

Bloomberg Government reporter Tripp Baltz, who frequently covers Colorado politics (Tina Peters and QAnon Support Belief Election Stolen), posted in Bloomberg online government section his analyses of the final congressional map “approved by the Colorado Independent Commission that also would increase the voice of Latino voters.”

I pointed out that the impact the map had on Colorado’s seven incumbent congresspersons:

“This was a good map for incumbents—no one looks like they’re in trouble,” said Floyd Ciruli, political science professor at the University of Denver. “It’s a lot better map for the Republicans than they thought they were going to get.”

Lauren Boebert

Boebert

Freshman Lauren Boebert (R) is among the incumbents given friendly territory.

“She still has a five-point advantage,” Ciruli said. “In 2020, she lost Pueblo just slightly to a Democrat, and Pueblo isn’t the sure thing for Democrats it used to be.” [Her advantage is plus 9 points]

Perlmutter

Ed Perlmutter

Eight-term Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D) ended up with a revised 7th District with more rural areas than in his current district, though the constituency would still have a Democratic lean.

“Assume it’s not a good Democratic year, he’s a senior congressman facing an incredible amount of driving and travel,” the professor said. “He’s done well where he is known, but those people to the south and west will not be familiar to him.”