Republicans Face Long Odds Against Colorado’s Michael Bennet

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet at the Capitol, June 2021
Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

“If there were 10 competitive Senate races, this would be 10, at the bottom of the list. And nothing would change that as of today.” My quote with E&E News (Environment and Energy News by Politico) on July 27 with reporter Timothy Cama.

The article reviews Bennet’s environmental record and my political observations, which include:

“Bennet has raised significant money. There is no particular boiling scandal. And we’re picking up a congressional seat, so that’s carrying a lot of the attention in the state,” he continued, referring to the new House seat Colorado is getting in the next election thanks to the latest U.S. Census count.

Ciruli said Bennet has had issues with an enthusiasm gap in the past, noting that his failed 2020 presidential campaign generated little excitement. “I don’t think Bennet is a jump-up-and-down-with-enthusiasm candidate,” Ciruli said. “On the other hand, he’s a solid senator in a state that, as far as I can tell, still leans highly Democratic.”

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“They’ll have a nominee, and it’ll be a contest. But that nominee is going to be burdened in a state where Donald Trump is a pariah,” said Ciruli of the former president, who remains the GOP’s kingmaker.

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“We got this new congressional district because we have 700,000 new people,” Ciruli said. “A very significant portion of them are young and well-educated. They came out here for the environment and recreation and the great mountains…”

The shift has been reflected in recent elections. While Bennet struggled with close margins by his 2010 and 2016 races and Gardner unseated Udall in 2014, Gov. Jared Polis (D) won by a comfortable margin in 2018 and President Biden beat President Trump by more than 13 points.

“We’ve had waves of new people in the past that were conservative, but that’s not this group,” Ciruli said. “This group is solidly liberal.”

Orange County Economist Declare Regulations and Taxes Most Responsible for Exodus

Using a sophisticated regression analysis, two Chapman University economists make the case that it’s not climate change or job growth that is most responsible for the exodus of many Californians, especially to Florida. They identify state regulation and state and local taxes as the variables with the highest correlation to population loss highlighted by California losing a congressional seat for the first time in its history as a state (incorporated in 1850). Somewhat surprising, housing cost was not a variable that was identified as having a major impact. Democrats, who generally dominate state politics, normally point to housing and offer various solutions that have not had much impact.

James Doti, former Chapman president and now an economics professor, with fellow professor Raymond Sfeir, director of the Gary Anderson Center for Economics, conducted the study. They present a more conservative slant compared to the public policy and economic analyses from UCLA and other institutions.

The analysis will no doubt be critiqued, but it offers one more data point that California is no longer the land of opportunity and suggests its status as a one-party liberal state may be a significant factor in its loss of attractive power. Source: the Orange County Registrar, August 1, 2021.

PAPOR Speaker Series: Profiles in Research

The Pacific Chapter of American Association for Public Opinion Research (PAPOR) is proud to invite you to attend PAPOR Speaker Series: Profiles in Research.

This intimate online panel discussion features speakers from the Public Opinion Research community sharing their story. This is a great opportunity for current students or recent graduates interested in networking and learning about career paths in public opinion research. Seasoned researchers will love learning more about their peers.

REGISTER HERE

When:

Tuesday, August 17, 2021 Noon – 1:30 PM Pacific Daylight

Cost:

The PAPOR Speaker Series is free to students and PAPOR members. Not yet a member? Join PAPOR during registration for $20 to enjoy great content for all of 2021!

How:

Zoom attendance. Attend from the comfort of your own computer.

Videos on 2021 Diplomacy Program: Asia Top U.S. Foreign Policy Theater

Asia is now the primary U.S. foreign policy theater, Japan its critical ally and China the topic. To explore these changing circumstances, The Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, with the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies, the Center for China-U.S. Cooperation and the Consulate-General of Japan in Denver, convened a multi-panel program of experts in March 2021 that addressed foreign policy and public opinion amid the threats and opportunities China presents.

The program focused on the new era of relations with China, the strengthening of alliances in the Indo-Pacific and U.S.-Japan defense policy.

YouTube videos of each program are now online and available to view.

Video on “Free and Open Indo-Pacific and China”

Will the two new administrations build an alliance to protect the Indo-Pacific?

A free and open Indo-Pacific from the Northern Pacific to India is a diplomatic, economic and national security goal of the U.S., Japan, and their friends and allies around the world. The challenges it faces from China’s broad claims of sovereignty and hostile behavior and aggressive rhetoric witnessed in Hong Kong, Taiwan, the South China Sea and elsewhere is the topic of this panel of experts from the Korbel School and Doshisha University in Kyoto, Japan. (March 24, 2021)

• Professor Koji Murata – Professor of political science at Doshisha University in Kyoto, Japan
• Professor Suisheng Zhao – Professor of foreign policy at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies in Denver and director of the Center for China-US Cooperation
• Professor Floyd Ciruli – Professor of public opinion and foreign policy at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies and director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research

WATCH VIDEO

Video on “Free and Open Indo-Pacific: The Quad”

Can the Quad shift from a concept to reality?

President Joe Biden’s first multilateral meeting was to host the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) in its first meeting of heads of government since it was conceived more than a decade ago. The National Security Advisor described the summit of Australia, India, Japan and the U.S. as a “critical part of the architecture of the Indo-Pacific.” (March 29, 2021)

Join a conversation with experts from the U.S. and Japan on the potential for a joint strategy and unified actions on important issues in the Indo-Pacific region. Can Japan, the U.S., Australia and India be a defender of the rule of law and democratic values? 

• Professor Nobukatsu Kanehara – Senior advisor to the Asia Group, Tokyo; Assistant Chief Cabinet Secretary to Prime Minister Abe; Deputy Secretary-General of the National Security Secretariat. Joined by Professors Suisheng Zhao and Floyd Ciruli (see bios above).

The panelists concluded that a new era has been launched in U.S.-China relations. It is now the primary focus of America’s foreign policy and is affecting domestic policy – from resolving the pandemic, to addressing infrastructure to strengthening democracy.

WATCH VIDEO

Video on “U.S.-Japan Defense Policy”

As tension and competition in Asia increases, can China be deterred?

The Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research’s program on U.S. and Japanese diplomacy focused on defense and strategies for avoiding conflict in Asia while protecting a free and open Indo-Pacific region. Join experts on diplomacy, defense and public opinion on the Indo-Pacific region discuss the U.S. and Japanese defense strategy and the Taiwan issue. (March 31, 2021)

• Tsuneo “Nabe” Watanabe – Senior research fellow to the Sasakawa Peace Foundation; previously senior fellow and director at the Tokyo Foundation
• Professor Lewis Griffith – Professor and director of the International Security and Homeland Security Program at the Korbel School 
• Dina Smeltz – Senior researcher of public opinion at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. 

The panel was moderated by Floyd Ciruli, director of the Crossley Center.  

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Recall Numbers Are Moving. Summer of Discontent.

The virus surge is rapidly darkening the public’s mood and putting some incumbent politicians in danger. President Biden, who has made managing the virus his top priority, is after six months of stable approval ratings, beginning to receive ratings below 50 percent.

In the California recall, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s problem with the virus, mask and inoculation mandates is compounded by raging wildfires, reservoirs at record lows, high crime rates, and a large and visible homeless population.

Support for the recall has been increasing for several weeks, but a new poll (KABC/SurveyUSA) shows opposition to the recall dropping from 48 percent to 40 percent and support for removal at 51 percent.

And the surprise runoff winner in the latest poll would be Kevin Paffrath (27%), a mostly unknown YouTuber who has the good fortune to be the only Democrat in the list of candidates polled.

2021 Crossley Center Scholars

A record of eight second-year students received $10,000 Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research scholarships. Congratulations scholars!

Crossley Scholars

Olivia Barrows

Elizabeth Clemons

Bianca Garcia

John Hense

Phoebe Iguchi

Kylie McKee

Jessica Morris

Christian Thomas

The students submitted an essay of analysis on public opinion of foreign or domestic policy. Several of the essays will be posted.

The Crossley Center promotes the advancement of the field of public opinion research. Understanding the public’s mindset is essential in the decision-making process for public officials, diplomats and businesspeople, and the Center provides those groups and individuals the tools they need to make decisions in the interest of peace, justice and sustainable development.

Is Newsom in Trouble? – Part II

In July, it became obvious to election observers that the California recall primary on September 14, with mail ballots going out starting on August 16, was closer than earlier polls indicated, and as I blogged on July 26, Governor Gavin Newsom’s “primary concern is to get his voters to return ballots.” The blog reported on a poll conducted on July 20 that had “yes” or “no” on the recall within 5 points (43% yes to 48% no). It was just confirmed by a UC Berkeley–LA Times poll that shows the race with 15 to 3 points depending on who turns out, dramatically highlighting Newsom’s voter turnout challenge. Republicans are more attuned to the election and have a higher turnout history in special elections.

Viewing the Berkeley-LA Times data makes clear that Newsom and the Democrats have only a slight majority supporting retention today – 50 percent in both turnout scenarios. The core recall vote of 36 percent is the base Republican-leaning votes in California (Donald Trump got 34%, Newsom’s opponent in 2018 got 38%).

Observers on both sides cite the summer of discontent extending the public’s general unhappiness with politics and the state’s fate. The Delta variant, the mask restrictions, drought, wild fires and the growing sense that the California dream has ended with people, jobs and power moving not into the state, but out.

Newsom’s advantages are no opponents with name identification, a divided Republican Party between the establishment and Trump wing, he has millions to spend, and finally, Democrats realizing this won’t be a walk on the beach.

Read:
Is Newsom in Trouble?
Gavin Newsom Has Reason to Worry