The Buzz Predicted Record 1.5 Million Primary Voters. Colorado Secretary of State Reports 1.8 Million.

The Colorado Secretary of State reported a total 1.8 million voted in the presidential primary, with more than 100,000 ballots still to be processed. The vote for Democratic candidates was 1,082,788 and Republican 674,217, or nearly 400,000 more Democrats and unaffiliated voting in the Democratic primary. Based on an Election Day report on turnout, 613,485 unaffiliated voted nearly three-to-one Democratic (401,943 Democrat to 140,598 Republican).

The 2020 primary turnout exceeded our expectations.

History

The highest Republican presidential primary turnout high was in the 1996 contest among five candidates, including Bob Dole, Pat Buchanan and Steve Forbes, when 246,339 voted. The Democratic high turnout was in the first event in 1992 when 234,287 voters made Jerry Brown the top candidate with 29 percent against Bill Clinton (27%) and Paul Tsongas (26%).

Significance of the 2020 Vote

• First presidential primary in 20 years
• Early date in competitive year for Democrats
• All mail-back ballots
• More than 1.61 million unaffiliated voters sent ballots and encouraged to vote by campaigns
• 17-year-olds allowed to vote (if reach 18 years old by Nov. 3, 2020)

Super Tuesday: Two-Person Race, Biden in Lead

Beating Donald Trump won out over revolution. Joe Biden and the Democratic Party’s elected officials and establishment want to take on Trump without the distraction of controversial and untested hyper-expensive proposals. They also fear the reputational baggage Bernie Sanders carries for the entire Democratic ticket, especially new House members and aspiring Senate candidates.

The battle is not over, but Biden is now the frontrunner. The Democratic effort to unify will have to deal with some major problems: Bernie Sanders’s irascible, anti-establishment temperament, his many extreme supporters and several upcoming states on the schedule that look like California and Colorado.

Democrats Voting Late. More than 1.5 Million Expected.

In The Buzz (2-27-20) and on KOA Monday, I predicted 1.2 to 1.5 million voters on Super Tuesday, and most of the late votes would be from Democrats and independents voting in the Democratic primary. As of Tuesday morning, 1.3 million returned ballots – 250,000 Democrats to 113,000 Republicans since Friday.

The over 410,000 unaffiliated who have turned out, voted more than two-to-one Democratic (231,128 Democrat to 103,240 Republican), likely good news for Bernie Sanders, the leader in the state’s polling.

But, many of the final 600,000 or so votes cast after Friday knew about the Joe Biden blowout in South Carolina. Those making decisions the last two days will know about the dropping out and endorsements by Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, which may also help Biden.

Second in the polls has been Elizabeth Warren. Will she reach the 15 percent threshold to win delegates?

Political Coverage on KOA – The 2020 Election

April Zesbaugh and Marty Lenz lead the political coverage in KOA’s top rate morning drive time. I regularly provide analyses and commentary. Monday morning, we previewed Colorado’s first presidential primary in 20 years.

• Colorado has 67 delegates out of 1,357 in 14 states to be decided Super Tuesday, or a third (34%) of the total delegates (3,982).
• Record turnout – more than 900,000 already voted and counted last Friday. I expect 1.2 million, up to 1.5 million. Democrats are holding onto ballots to see the final field. Big turnout reflects that the primary is early in the schedule and the race is still competitive.
• Unaffiliated voters – More than 250,000 have already voted.
• Bernie Sanders ahead according to polls, but massive “stop Bernie” campaigns launched by his rival candidates and the Democratic Party establishment. Even Elizabeth Warren has finally started to criticize him. They are concerned about winning in November and down-ballot races, such as the Colorado Senate.
• Joe Biden’s strong showing in South Carolina (48%) should provide some bounce in attention, in support with many Super Tuesday voters casting ballots on the last two days and an increase in funds. But, polls have Biden behind in several major states, such as California, Texas and Virginia. In Colorado, he’s back in the field, behind Sanders and Warren.
• But many late polls have been volatile and close. Only the weekend polls could catch Biden’s bounce, if any. Ground campaign in Colorado by Warren. Massive advertising ($6 million spent) by Mike Bloomberg. Super Tuesday will be his debut on the ballot.
• The big question will be who is still in the race on Wednesday, March 4. Tom Steyer, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar are out. Difficult decisions for campaigns that only have a handful of delegates, if any, and little money for a national campaign for the remaining two-thirds of delegates.
• As long as a group of Democratic moderates stay in the race, Sanders will remain the frontrunner. But, he may not find a majority.

“Stop Bernie” Campaign Gains Traction

Nevada finally woke up Bernie Sanders’s rivals and put the party establishment in a full panic mode.

Until the Nevada blowout, Sanders performed as expected or slightly below. He only tied in Iowa and his New Hampshire win was modest compared to four years ago. But, the Nevada caucus result (47%) and Sanders’s interpretation of his near sweep of Democratic constituencies, including labor and Hispanics, against Joe Biden and the field convinced everyone he could win the nomination and do it quickly.

Pete Buttigieg barely waited for the results to claim Sanders would be a disaster in November for Democratic candidate running for Congress and the Senate and criticized his so-called “revolution” as an inflexible ideology.

Quickly, Mike Bloomberg weighed in with a poll of congressional swing districts, which purported to show Sanders would be a burden.

Even his progressive soulmate, Elizabeth Warren, who has been unwilling to criticize, opened up a full blown attack on the vulnerability of his socialist label, her concern for other Democrats on the ticket, implying he’s isn’t interested in anyone but himself, and his ineffectual legislative strategy citing their differences in keeping the filibuster rule (she’s against it, he’s for it).

Given his weak performance in South Carolina, will the Sanders steamroll take a hit on March 3.

Nevada and South Carolina: End of Pre-season

South Carolina and Nevada were not only the end of the pre-season before the main event starts March 3, but they were mirror images in results. Bernie Sanders swept Nevada and got a major bump in attention and money (also started the “stop Bernie” movement). Will Joe Biden get a similar bump from his South Carolina win?

Bernie Sanders on the campaign trail | DW

Joe Biden on the campaign trail | Gerry Broome/AF

Colorado Politics and Denver Post Cite Ciruli Blog, The Buzz, on Sanders’s Damages to Democratic Ticket

In a blog posted on Feb. 20, I speculated on the impact on John Hickenlooper’s run for senate. It was quoted in a story on Colorado Politics by Joey Bunch (Feb. 25) and in the Denver Post by Justin Wingerter on Feb. 28.

“Floyd Ciruli, a longtime Colorado pollster and political consultant, wrote last week that if Sanders is successful, the Democratic challenger to Gardner will ‘have to run with the most vulnerable Democratic nominee since George McGovern in 1972,’ to Gardner’s benefit.”

Later, Jesse Paul in the Colorado Sun on Feb. 28 quoted Senator Michael Bennet talking about his presidential race as:

“I think it makes it much more challenging in purple states for Democrats who are running if Sanders is at the top of the ticket,” Bennet said.

Read The Buzz:
Will Bernie Sanders Defeat John Hickenlooper?
Is Bernie Sanders the George McGovern of 2020?