Trump’s Going to Need a Bigger Boat

President Trump and his Mideast team – Mike Pompeo, John Bolton and Jared Kushner – should be careful starting a war with Iran. Not only is the country’s forces formidable (they are not Iraq in 2003), but American allies in this cause will be thin. In fact, except for Israel, which isn’t near the battlefield, the help is mostly unimpressive American dependencies. Europe, the UN, China, Russia, India, Turkey and others are more likely to oppose than support any action. And, of course, impact on the world economy will be immediate and significant.

Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln | Eric Power/US Navy

The Iranian confrontation is especially dangerous due to a host of special conditions beyond our isolation on the issue:

• The enmity is deep and long-term. The chant, “Death to America” (and the 1979 hostage crisis), are manifestations of deep hostility that is part of the core legitimacy of the regime. Opposing the U.S. throughout the Mideast is the top propaganda point for their external relations.
• The Persian Gulf has massive armaments in very close proximity.
• Iran has proxies and allies in the Middle East with agendas and resources that can cause incidents, like rockets in the Green Zone and commercial shipping attacks, that the two powers must then manage.
• Regular communication helps avoid missteps and miscues, but we have none with their diplomats or military.

President Trump’s usual strategy of maximum pressure and over-the-top threats will have difficulty working with Iran. It does not constitute negotiation, and regime survival will require the U.S. to appear to back down and lower the demands and threats – actions not really available in the Trump playbook.

Why Hickenlooper Isn’t Running for Senate

Recently, Washington Post columnist, Eugene Robinson, and MSNBC host, Rachel Maddow, have argued for John Hickenlooper to shift from his presidential race to run for the Colorado Senate seat held by Cory Gardner. They point out that it’s eminently winnable and Hickenlooper has won two statewide elections for governor. He has said “no” so far, and explains that he’s an executive and solving problems from a management position is his forte and passion.

Seth McLaughlin in the Washington Times also wrote on the topic as to why a host of popular state politicians choose a longshot presidential run over local senate races, citing the dimmed stature of the senate as a place where problems are solved, especially from a minority position, which Democrats would likely be in after 2020.

Unfortunately for Hickenlooper, there is already a field of Democratic candidates, several with considerable experience of organizing and running for statewide offices. It is unlikely Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer could clear the field the way the Republican Party did for Cory Gardner to take on Mark Udall in 2014. Hickenlooper would have to run in a primary, something he has no real experience in and would be in considerable risk of losing. – witness his difficulty finding a constituency in the race for president.

His only multi-candidate race was his first for mayor in 2003. He mostly snuck up on the field of better known Denver politicians, with money, a creative campaign and considerable good luck. He’s now a known quantity after 17 years in office, and the activists in the Democratic Party are not his natural base. He gets support from moderate Democrats and Republicans, but the very liberal 2020 Colorado Democratic Party will be a very tough sell. Don’t expect Hickenlooper in the field regardless of his presidential fate.

Former Gov. John Hickenlooper shares his ideas and accomplishments
with Iowa voters in Des Moines, Iowa, Jan. 27, 2019 | Joe Amon/Denver Post

Hickenlooper and Bennet Make It – The One Percenters

Congratulations to both John Hickenlooper and Michael Bennet who made the first Democratic debate on June 26 and 27, broadcasted by NBC, MSNBC and Telemundo.

By reaching one percent in the polls, they also qualify for the second debate at the end of July. But, they haven’t registered in the fundraising goal of $65,000 from online sources, and at one percent, they join a dozen other candidates barely in the race. Qualifying for the August debate is tougher with a two percent threshold for polling. The one percenters don’t have much time to spare.

After a random draw, both Coloradans are in the second debate on June 27 with frontrunners Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris. When you examine the Real Clear Politics polling average, Bennet records at one percent as of June 14, whereas Hickenlooper’s average shows only 0.4 percent. Out of the 20 finalists for the debate, 13, or 65 percent, are at one percent or below. They are the candidates that need a moment in the debate to be special for TV and online audiences. The media and pundit class would like to describe one or more hidden talents in the pack that they could predict as possible breakout candidates.

Neither Bennet nor Hickenlooper have reputations for superior debating skills. Bennet has done well in interviews on MSNBC and the weekend political talk shows while touting his book. His internet high point was his Senate floor speech taking on Ted Cruz.

Hickenlooper has moments of interviewing strength, but sometimes misses the mark. Recently, his policy positions have been well received on foreign policy and climate change. And, he did have a breakout moment labeled, “Hickenlooper booed” on the internet when he said “socialism is not the answer” to a Democratic convention full of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren supporters.

Trump is Dominating Digital Campaigning

Two major articles on President Trump’s digital campaign point out its power and sophistication. He and his campaign believe it will be the key to a close race in a handful of states.

In 2016, Trump won by a handful of votes in Michigan (11,000), Pennsylvania (46,000) and Wisconsin (23,000). These states are still Trump targets as witnessed by rallies, which are events that feed data to the digital platforms. But, other states are on the list – Florida, Minnesota, Nevada, Arizona and even Colorado (Trump lost by 4.9%).

Trump’s digital mastermind, Brad Parscale, is now in charge of the entire campaign. Trump received 63 million votes in 2016 and already has collected the names and emails of 33 million voters. Their goal is to double that number before next November.

The Democrats haven’t really started an effort, with individual campaigns, like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, doing the best job, but they have collected less than 10 million contacts thus far.

• LA Times, June 13, 2019, Noah Bierman and Evan Halper
• Wall Street Journal, June 15-16, 2019, Michael Bender, Rebecca Ballhaus and Alex Leary

The Two Pandas Summit: Autocrats Gather; Economies and Military Ties Strengthened

Vladimir Putin welcomed Chinese President Xi Jinping and 1,000 Chinese officials and businesspeople for a state visit and to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Russia looks to skirt western sanctions, attract Chinese investments and strengthen its alliance with the U.S. and Western democracies other leading antagonist, China. And, of course, China is looking for allies in its trade dispute with the U.S. Xi brought two pandas for good will and called Putin, who was celebrating a birthday, his best friend.

President Putin spent considerable time criticizing the U.S.’s geopolitical and trade positions as unilateralism and hegemony. And, the joint discussions made clear that – concerning Iran, North Korea and Venezuela, the use of Huawei and the Arctic – the two countries are in agreement on viewpoints and promoting joint positions and ventures.

Chinese President Xi Jinping (L) and Russian President
Vladimir Putin, June 7, 2019 | Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg

While the West’s alliance relationships, such as the EU and NATO, are on the defense, Russia and China are building theirs. Last September, President Putin and President Xi shared blintzes as their militaries maneuvered together.

Vladimir Putin invited Xi Jinping to a Russian pancake cooking class in Siberia while Chinese troops joined Russians in a large five-day military exercise that U.S. Defense officials described as: “…moving beyond symbolic displays of force to coordinate weapons systems and command structures. Washington says the two countries have developed capabilities that could test U.S. military dominance in times of crisis.” (The Buzz, Sept. 28, 2018)

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping make
pancakes during a visit to the Far East Street exhibition on the sidelines of the
Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Russia, Sept. 11, 2018 | Reuters

The Polls

The American people have no illusion about their views concerning Putin or Xi. A CNN poll of 2017 asked a favorability question of world leaders, and President Putin had a 12 percent favorable rating and 71 percent unfavorable. President Xi had a 10 percent favorable, a 36 percent unfavorable, and 53 percent not having heard of him or with no opinion.

Do Democrats Want a Candidate Who Shares Their Values or Can Beat Trump? They are Split

In an analysis of the latest national poll from PBS NewsHour, NPR and Marist shows Democrats nearly evenly divided between wanting a presidential nominee they agree with on the issues (47%) and who was electable (46%).

I argued candidates have to blend them both.

Independent pollster Floyd Ciruli said the candidates are under pressure to identify with voters on the issues and come across as electable. 

“You have to blend them both,” he said.

The article was published on PBS NewsHour site by digital producer, Gretchen Frazee.

The poll also pointed out that, although the President hasn’t improved his job performance approval for months (41%), his disapproval has declined from 55 percent in February to 49 percent in the June poll. Also, the number of people who said they would definitely vote against the President went down from 57 percent in January to 51 percent in this poll.

I argued that, given the number of controversies the President is involved in. it shows that he’s not being swamped by them. Democrats must be mindful that this is likely to be a tough race and issues, like the Mueller report, are not a silver bullet.

“That reinforces the fact that during this incredibly tumultuous period, there is no huge bump up in strong disapproval” of Trump, Ciruli said.

Denver Voters State Their Views: No Camping, No Olympics, But Yes on Mushrooms

In the latest Denver elections, less than half of Denver’s registered voters have made a series of important decisions for the city and its political leadership. In a nearly unanimous voice, they said any solution to the growing homeless problem will not include camping on city streets, in parks or public spaces. Eighty-one percent of voters defeated a homeless advocate initiative to legalize public camping.

On the same May 7 ballot, voters approved by a mere 2,000 votes, decriminalizing the use of psilocybin, commonly referenced as Magic Mushrooms – cementing Colorado’s and especially Denver’s image as a national drug capital.

Although the likelihood Denver will ever get a Winter Olympics is highly remote, opponents, including former Governor Dick Lamm, captain of the 1972 statewide voter rejection (by 60%) of the ‘76 Olympics, won another bar to a future Olympics by requiring a vote that would have to take place for even a preliminary study of the issue if it involved any government funds. Olympics, forget Denver.