In a newsletter by Corey Hutchins, Colorado Local News & Media, Hutchins wrote:
Following last week's news in this newsletter that Longmont voters won't be asked to consider new taxes for a library district with a potential local news component, political analyst and pollster Floyd Ciruli reached out with a similar idea to consider.
"One possible model to examine is the Scientific and Cultural Facilities District (SCFD), which provides money for major and smaller cultural organizations with no influence on their selection of programs, exhibits or their missions in general," he said. "But the Board still provides transparency and accountability over the tax dollars." The benefit over a library district," he said, is that the SCFD model can use a sales tax, "and the operational rules and board composition can be designed as appropriate."
Ciruli, who helped start SCFD decades ago when major institutions in Colorado were in financial trouble, says he believes looking at them as an idea for potentially helping fund local news sources should be examined. “It’s the kind of thing that ought to be polled,” he said.
Monday, June 10, 2019
Friday, June 7, 2019
Change is Coming to Denver
Although Michael Hancock’s substantial victory Tuesday night secures his final term as mayor, he will deal with a city council full of new community activists, much more skeptical of the growth than the incumbents they replaced. All three incumbents forced into the May 7 runoff lost and their replacements were strongly hostile to the developer culture that they believe controls City Hall.
Denver is a strong mayoral system of government, with control over appointments, the budget and a high threshold of votes needed for a veto. But, councilpersons with agendas and constituencies can have considerable influence. The Mayor’s lobbyist and the business and development community will play more defense then they have had to for the last several years.
No doubt, the Mayor and his allies will adapt, but change is coming. As I said in a Denver Post article to John Aguilar:
“From the swearing-in on, there’s going to be a new tone with these members,” political analyst Floyd Ciruli said.
Read The Buzz: Denver Council Incumbents Dealing With Growth in Runoff
No doubt, the Mayor and his allies will adapt, but change is coming. As I said in a Denver Post article to John Aguilar:
“From the swearing-in on, there’s going to be a new tone with these members,” political analyst Floyd Ciruli said.
Read The Buzz: Denver Council Incumbents Dealing With Growth in Runoff
Wednesday, June 5, 2019
Denver Runoff Election Has Lower Turnout
The final ballot total hasn’t been reported by the Denver Clerk yet, but the June 5 posting at 2:00 pm shows 165,337 votes, or approximately 19,000 less than the May 7 runoff.
The percentage of turnout among independent voters fell off a couple of points and Democrats went up. But in general, turnout was down across-the-board among partisan groups. Overall turnout was 41 percent of 407,140 registered voters. Runoffs often attract more voters, but not always. Turnout was down in Wellington Webb’s and John Hickenlooper’s first runoffs.
As usual, most ballots were turned in the last weekend and on Election Day, June 4. On the final day, 80,000 ballots were recorded, or 48 percent of the vote. Similarly, during the runoff, 80,000 ballots were received on Election Day, or 43 percent (out of 184,000 cast).
Tuesday, June 4, 2019
Trump’s Tariffs Take a Toll: Dow Ended May Below 25000
The Dow and other major investment indexes had their worst month since the collapse of major indexes last December. The Dow lost 355 points on Friday, the last day of May, after President Trump’s tariff announcement on Mexican goods.
Although the Dow remains up 6 percent for the year, the preceding six weeks of losses is the longest losing streak since 2011, near the start of the current recovery. Along with concern about the longevity of the nearly decade-long recovery (started in 2009) and bull market, investors are beginning to fear Trump’s application of emergency trade power for his wildly oscillating tariff policy. Earlier in the month, Trump lifted tariffs on steel and aluminum (while threatening new tariffs on autos), then raised tariffs on China as trade talks failed, and now is calling for escalating tariffs on Mexico (via Twitter and against advise of trade experts and legislative allies).
Trump and his immigration hardliners, such as Mick Mulvaney (Freedom Caucus leader and White House Chief of Staff) and immigration staffer, Steve Miller, have encouraged the crackdown on the Mexico/U.S. border, most recently with complete shutdown. Arguably, tariffs are somewhat less disruptive, but for many investors they reinforce the cross-purposes and volatility of the President’s foreign and economic policies. Tariffs are a tax on Americans and wildly disruptive of trade relationships. Economic observers not associated with the White House believe Trump’s policies will hurt earnings, inhibit business investments, raise consumer prices and slow growth.
The Dow closed on Friday, May 31 at 24815, down 1841 points since the 2019 high on April 23. The market’s volatility has increased since early 2018. It was in January 2018 when the Dow hit 26616, yet ended 2018 at 23327, or more than 3000 points lower.
Most observers expect the volatility to continue due to geopolitical factors, both in the U.S., but also abroad. The President’s use of sanctions and tariffs is a new factor for world markets to digest.
Although the Dow remains up 6 percent for the year, the preceding six weeks of losses is the longest losing streak since 2011, near the start of the current recovery. Along with concern about the longevity of the nearly decade-long recovery (started in 2009) and bull market, investors are beginning to fear Trump’s application of emergency trade power for his wildly oscillating tariff policy. Earlier in the month, Trump lifted tariffs on steel and aluminum (while threatening new tariffs on autos), then raised tariffs on China as trade talks failed, and now is calling for escalating tariffs on Mexico (via Twitter and against advise of trade experts and legislative allies).Trump and his immigration hardliners, such as Mick Mulvaney (Freedom Caucus leader and White House Chief of Staff) and immigration staffer, Steve Miller, have encouraged the crackdown on the Mexico/U.S. border, most recently with complete shutdown. Arguably, tariffs are somewhat less disruptive, but for many investors they reinforce the cross-purposes and volatility of the President’s foreign and economic policies. Tariffs are a tax on Americans and wildly disruptive of trade relationships. Economic observers not associated with the White House believe Trump’s policies will hurt earnings, inhibit business investments, raise consumer prices and slow growth.
The Dow closed on Friday, May 31 at 24815, down 1841 points since the 2019 high on April 23. The market’s volatility has increased since early 2018. It was in January 2018 when the Dow hit 26616, yet ended 2018 at 23327, or more than 3000 points lower.
Jesse Paul, Colorado Sun: Mayor’s Race Very Negative, Very Personal
Jesse Paul, formerly with the Denver Post, has a long concluding story in the Colorado Sun on the Denver mayor’s race becoming a “fiery personality clash” (May 31, 2019).
He quoted The Buzz of May 30, “Denver Votes Trickling In; Hancock Vulnerable by Late Stumble”:
“If Jamie Giellis derailed the beginning of her campaign with the NAACP memory lapse, Michael Hancock is even more damaged by his late clumsy effort to reframe his sexual harassment controversy in a final debate one week out before Election Day,” he posted on his blog.
The election has a lot of money, a lot of social media, many new voters, and a lot at stake for the development community and city interest groups. You can expect it to get personal and negative, especially in the anti-establishment, change era that is challenging the status quo.
He quoted The Buzz of May 30, “Denver Votes Trickling In; Hancock Vulnerable by Late Stumble”:
“If Jamie Giellis derailed the beginning of her campaign with the NAACP memory lapse, Michael Hancock is even more damaged by his late clumsy effort to reframe his sexual harassment controversy in a final debate one week out before Election Day,” he posted on his blog.
The election has a lot of money, a lot of social media, many new voters, and a lot at stake for the development community and city interest groups. You can expect it to get personal and negative, especially in the anti-establishment, change era that is challenging the status quo.
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| Jamie Giellis (L) and Mayor Michael Hancock | Jesse Paul/The Colorado Sun |
Will Millennials Make a Difference in Denver City Elections? Mary Winter, Colorado Independent
A third of the vote in the May 7 Denver general election was provided by unaffiliated voters, many new registrants and Millennials. Will they vote on June 4 and will they vote for change?
As of late Monday, June 3, 95,000 votes had been counted, a little ahead of the May 7 general election returns. But, on Election Day, May 7, more than 80,000 Denver voters delivered ballots – mostly in person – to the Denver Clerk, leading to the long count Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Will Millennial and more independent voters surge again or will the runoff have a lower turnout than the 185,000 record on May 7?
Reporter Mary Winter analyzed registration and precinct data in a June 3 Colorado Independent story. She describes Millennials as a substantial bloc of Denver voters. I contributed to the story’s background on the city election.
Winter writes:
They helped boost turnout in Denver’s May 7 municipal election to 39.6%, a fairly high showing by historical standards, according to the Denver Elections Division. Veteran Denver political pollster Floyd Ciruli predicts millennials will show up in big numbers again for Tuesday’s runoff, which will also determine five city council seats and the city clerk and recorder, and whether voters should get to decide if public money should be spent to host future Olympics.
Ciruli won’t venture a guess as to which candidate millennials will favor. “We know they are not party loyal. And that’s what’s exciting, interesting. Millennials could be a deciding factor” in this race, he said.
“Hancock and the council recognized they had a development problem,” but they didn’t put the brakes on big development fast enough, Ciruli says. “The public didn’t see enough ‘no’ – nothing dramatic enough. It’s development and growth – the issue is really framed by this election.”
“Millennials changed the environment 100%, and we’ve had a hard time catching up to the growth.”
Winter’s precinct analysis shows Mayor Hancock had considerable strength throughout Denver, winning close to his 39 percent average in most areas, and more in northeast Denver’s historic higher concentration of African American neighborhoods.
Read The Buzz:
Mayor’s Race: Final Week, KOA With Marty and Ed
Denver Votes Trickling In; Hancock Vulnerable by Late Stumble
Runoff Returns Slow as Usual
As of late Monday, June 3, 95,000 votes had been counted, a little ahead of the May 7 general election returns. But, on Election Day, May 7, more than 80,000 Denver voters delivered ballots – mostly in person – to the Denver Clerk, leading to the long count Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Will Millennial and more independent voters surge again or will the runoff have a lower turnout than the 185,000 record on May 7?
Winter writes:
They helped boost turnout in Denver’s May 7 municipal election to 39.6%, a fairly high showing by historical standards, according to the Denver Elections Division. Veteran Denver political pollster Floyd Ciruli predicts millennials will show up in big numbers again for Tuesday’s runoff, which will also determine five city council seats and the city clerk and recorder, and whether voters should get to decide if public money should be spent to host future Olympics.
Ciruli won’t venture a guess as to which candidate millennials will favor. “We know they are not party loyal. And that’s what’s exciting, interesting. Millennials could be a deciding factor” in this race, he said.
. . .
Ciruli says there are a few universal concerns in this election. “Polls I have conducted in the past three to four years indicate growth is the No. 1 issue. There’s consistently a cluster around affordable housing, transportation, congestion, homelessness and gentrification and, in the most sensitive communities, the preservation of community,” he said.
. . .
No matter what their age, Denver voters will be delivering a referendum on the city’s management over the past eight years, says pollster Ciruli.“Hancock and the council recognized they had a development problem,” but they didn’t put the brakes on big development fast enough, Ciruli says. “The public didn’t see enough ‘no’ – nothing dramatic enough. It’s development and growth – the issue is really framed by this election.”
“Millennials changed the environment 100%, and we’ve had a hard time catching up to the growth.”
Winter’s precinct analysis shows Mayor Hancock had considerable strength throughout Denver, winning close to his 39 percent average in most areas, and more in northeast Denver’s historic higher concentration of African American neighborhoods.
Read The Buzz:
Mayor’s Race: Final Week, KOA With Marty and Ed
Denver Votes Trickling In; Hancock Vulnerable by Late Stumble
Runoff Returns Slow as Usual
Monday, June 3, 2019
KOA: Final Denver Mayor’s Race Interview With April and Marty
Denver’s mayoral runoff campaign has gotten very negative and very personal. The race started about growth, development, homelessness and affordable housing, and now it’s about race and diversity and gender and harassment – very personal.
April Zesbaugh and Marty Lenz questioned the impact of negative campaigning on turnout and who’s helped by low and high turnouts.
As of Sunday night, the Denver Clerk reported 85,000 votes turned in. If the 185,000 voter turnout of the May 7 election is to be reached, 100,000 votes need to be cast and counted today and Election Day. That’s about what happened last time, with the huge 80,000 final votes on Election Day.
Voters are in an angry mood today, and politicians are convinced that staying on the offensive and going negative will boost turnout among their supporters. The Mayor, for example, wants to maximize minority turnout, and Jamie Giellis wants women to turnout strongly to her.
Who the level of turnout – high or low – helps or hurts depends, of course, on who turns out – the Mayor’s home area on the eastside or voters angry about traffic and congestion favoring Giellis. Generally, low turnout helps the incumbent, the status quo. Giellis needs passion behind her campaign.
April Zesbaugh and Marty Lenz questioned the impact of negative campaigning on turnout and who’s helped by low and high turnouts.
As of Sunday night, the Denver Clerk reported 85,000 votes turned in. If the 185,000 voter turnout of the May 7 election is to be reached, 100,000 votes need to be cast and counted today and Election Day. That’s about what happened last time, with the huge 80,000 final votes on Election Day.
Voters are in an angry mood today, and politicians are convinced that staying on the offensive and going negative will boost turnout among their supporters. The Mayor, for example, wants to maximize minority turnout, and Jamie Giellis wants women to turnout strongly to her.
Who the level of turnout – high or low – helps or hurts depends, of course, on who turns out – the Mayor’s home area on the eastside or voters angry about traffic and congestion favoring Giellis. Generally, low turnout helps the incumbent, the status quo. Giellis needs passion behind her campaign.
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| Mayor Michael Hancock (L) and Jamie Giellis during a Denver Post mayoral debate at the Denver Press Club, May 28, 2019 | Photo: Daniel Petty/Denver Press Club |
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