Trump’s Rating Up, But Still Weak

Donald Trump was a plurality winner in the multi-candidate Republican primary and then won 46 percent of the electorate. He is likely to govern with less than half the country’s approval.

Since the November 8 election and during the nine weeks of transition, Donald Trump’s polling numbers have improved. His image, as rated by favorability, has nearly doubled from before the election. Most importantly, the public in general, while still very polarized by the election result, is more optimistic, reflected in numerous polls and a near 20000 Dow. But this still does not look like the usual presidential honeymoon. His ratings are well below historic norms and he has vulnerabilities related to his temperament and unpredictable, controversial statements (mostly self-generated tweets).

Trump’s approval rating, which will begin to be recorded on January 20, will likely be lower than recent presidents, but the political effect may be unpredictable like much of the election and transition. This may be the era of governance without majority support. Trump may be recalibrating the old indexes.

Read:
Wall Street Journal: Poll finds more Americans now view Donald Trump positively
Gallup: Trump maintains post-election bounce, but no new gains
Gallup: Trump’s transition approval lower than predecessors’
Fox News: Majority feels hopeful, yet low expectations for Trump

One Aspect of the Cold War is Back: Russian and American Publics Are at Historic Odds

Russian approval of their president, Vladimir Putin, couldn’t get much higher and disapproval of American leadership any lower. Numerous Russian polls report Putin’s approval among his citizens at 80 percent or higher. But Gallup reported in 2015 only one percent of Russians approved of U.S. leaders – “worst rating in world” and “lowest approval for the U.S. in the past decade.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin with his Defense Minister Sergei
Sholgu (R) and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at the Kremlin on
Thursday, Dec. 29, 2016 (Photo: Wall Street Journal)

Well before reports of Russian intervention in the U.S. election, American opinion of Russia had sunk to new lows. Only 22 percent of U.S. have a favorable opinion of Russia. The new low reported by Gallup reflects the criticism of Russia related to the Crimea, Ukraine, Syria and Edward Snowden.

One observation that stands out from the data is an uptick in partisan difference. A significant gap now appears between Democrats and Republicans, with a recent YouGov survey showing only 16 percent of Democrats see Russia as an ally or friendly, but 31 percent of Republicans categorized them that way, a significant jump since July 2016.

It remains to be seen if President-elect Trump and foreign policy elites so inclined (i.e., realists, nationalists, etc.) can head off a further deterioration in relations, but the public in both countries already feel winter is coming.

See:
Wall Street Journal: Obama sanctions Russia, expels 35
The Chicago Council on Global Affairs: Majority of Americans – except for Republicans – back congressional inquiry; survey shows 30-year lows for Russian’s favorability
Gallup: The 2016 year in review at Gallup.com
FiveThirtyEight: All of a sudden, Russia has become a partisan issue

Fight Over Trump’s Nominees Begins – 9KUSA

Interest groups and Democrats have started the battle against President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet nominees. As a contentious and high-profile transition nears its end and confirmation hearings begin, opponents have little time to make their point. It’s hard to see how they stop the administration getting their entire slate approved. But one of the most important positions and controversial nominee is Senator Jeff Sessions for Attorney General.

The Justice Department under President Obama was an activist agency led for six years by his strong ally, Eric Holder. He directed it into a host of fights, including those related to voting rights, immigration, police practices and criminal prosecution, including national security and drugs. The Attorney General also has the president’s legal back.

Hence, it is not surprising that 1,100 law professors are protesting Sessions’ appointment. He is very conservative and has been accused of racial insensitivity in the past. But few Cabinet nominees are rejected. There is deference to presidents’ choices. The Republicans also have 52 party votes and a plan to rush the confirmation hearing en masse to reduce the time and opportunity opponents have to mount effective opposition.

Ryan Haarer of 9KUSA interviewed me concerning DU law professor Robin Walker Sterling’s signing the petition opposing Sessions with 1,100 of her legal colleagues. We discuss why opponents of Trump are concerned, but also the unlikelihood their effort will be successful.

9NEWS political analyst Floyd Ciruli says these law professors are “by and large on the liberal side of things” and likely won't have much impact on Sessions' confirmation.

“Mr. Trump has made it utterly clear, as has the Republican congressional leadership that they are reversing the Obama legacy root and stem. It's going to be gone if they can do it,” Ciruli said. “This is part of the strategy to slow it down, to injure it.”

I pointed out that this is just the beginning of the resistance, which will likely reach a peak at the January 20 inauguration with thousands of protestors expected to come to D.C.

Confidence and Respect for Police Hits High in 2016

Although the nation’s police forces have been on the defensive over civilian shootings and minority community relations, confidence and respect for police surged.

In 2016 in particular, attacks on police officers, along with a rising murder rate in a number of big cities, have engendered a strong reaction of support for police that spread into the presidential race. Law and order became a major theme, along with criminal justice reform. Attendance at memorials for both police and civilians were high-profile events in the campaigns./>

• 76% report a “great deal of respect” for the police in their area, a 12 percent surge since last year (Gallup, October 5-9, 2016). Respect for police increased last year among both whites (80% up from 69%) and non-whites (64% up from 53%).

Police also ranked very high in comparative ratings of American institutions for “honesty and ethical standards” and for confidence.

• Police were fifth from the top in a list of twenty-one professions for having a high or very high rating of “honesty and ethical standards” (56%). They ranked lower than medical professionals (nurses – 85%, pharmacists – 68% and doctors – 67%, and just behind teachers – 60%). At 56%, they ranked above clergy (45%), journalists (27%), business executives (15%) and Congress people (8%). (Gallup, December 2-6, 2016)
• Police were third from the top in a list of fifteen institutions with more than half the public (56%) expressing a “great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence (Gallup, June 1-5, 2016). This observation was reinforced at the end of the year when NBC News/WSJ reported 59% of American adults rated police and law enforcement second behind the military (73%) in level of confidence with the American people. They are exceptions. The poll showed little confidence in major American institutions, such as the CIA (33%), public schools (31%) and the national news media (16%). 

Princess Leia for Four Decades

It is said the Star Wars franchise does not have fans, but followers. Carrie Fisher, from May of 1977, played the part of Princess Leia, probably the most famous and popular of the original characters, with considerable aplomb and good humor for 39 years. She was 19 years old in the original movie.

Her introduction to what became the greatest movie franchise in history was as a hologram projected by a scruffy little droid, R2D2. “Help me, Obi-Wan Kenobi, you’re my only hope.”

LEIA
General Kenobi, years ago you served my father in the Clone Wars. Now he begs you to help him in his struggle against the Empire. I regret that I am unable to present my father’s request to you in person, but my ship has fallen under attack and I’m afraid my mission to bring you to Alderaan has failed. I have placed information vital to the survival of the Rebellion into the memory systems of this R2 unit. My father will know how to retrieve it. You must see this droid safely delivered to him on Alderaan. This is our most desperate hour. Help me Obi-Wan Kenobi, you’re my only hope.

U.S. Asian Policy in Turmoil, Key Old Allies Uncertain on America’s Commitment

The first eight weeks of the transition to the Donald Trump administration has caused major upheaval in Barack Obama’s Asian foreign policy initiatives and turmoil with even longer-standing diplomatic and treaty understanding.

• In general, Trump has been highly critical of China’s trade and currency policy.
• Trump will abandon the long-negotiated Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA).
• Trump has said he would talk to North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, took a call from Tsai Ing-wen, the President of Taiwan, and is quoted as telling Philippine’s President Rodrigo Duterte his anti-drug dealers campaign is the right way.
• He generally casts doubt on American treaty commitments and understanding related to national defense and nuclear deterrence. He has wondered aloud about the U.S. commitment to Japan and South Korea’s defense and speculated they possibly should obtain nuclear weapons.

Earlier this year, residents of the region were asked if their country “was in a military conflict with another country, do you think the U.S. military would defend or not defend” them.

South Korea, among the most threatened nations in the Asian Rim, is also among the most confident the U.S. will defend them (70%). Philippine President Duterte has decided direct China negotiations about territorial disputes without U.S. involvement is a better strategy, but his constituents believe the U.S. would support them militarily (78%). Two of our allies most dependent on the U.S. deterrent and military commitment – Japan (53%) and Taiwan (44%) – have populations clearly divided in their sense that the U.S. would defend them.

It will likely be considerable time before the turmoil subsides and a new equilibrium of relationships with the U.S. and China is established. Public opinion will only then come to reflect the new reality.

See Gallup here

Hickenlooper for President

Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Gov. John Hickenlooper

The Hill political magazine put Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper on its early list of potential Democratic presidential candidates. Hickenlooper was listed number seven out of fifteen. Leading the list were senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker. Michelle Obama held the sixth position just ahead of Hickenlooper.

KOA’s April Zesbaugh discussed the Governor’s career path with Floyd Ciruli. A few points:

• Hickenlooper has been a popular governor, is an effective politician and term-limited. He needs a new job. 
• In the spring and early summer of 2016, he was considered by the Clinton campaign as a potential vice-presidential pick. It was never clear whether or not he was fully vetted, but he did receive several extended meetings with Hillary Clinton. The campaign picked U.S. Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia. During the fall as he campaigned for the ticket, there were regular rumors that he would be offered a cabinet post – Interior, Commerce and Agriculture were mentioned. He denied he wanted to leave Colorado and his job early. Few believed him.
• In the January 12, 2017 State of the State speech, Hickenlooper’s new status will bring attention to how he positions himself with the Trump administration. Both appointments (for example EPA and Interior) and policies (such as public land and energy) will be controversial for Western Democrats. Does he cooperate where he can and resist where he feels he must? 
• Although it is very likely that the 2018 mid-terms will see Americans still very polarized, Trump may have a good two years or it could be a disaster. Hickenlooper may claim a presidential race is not an interest, but the Democratic Party is in a major transition, and Hickenlooper, as a popular second-term governor (there are only 18 Democrats out of 50), could be a valuable contributor to the party’s attempted revival.
• Hickenlooper is a Democratic moderate in a party with a very liberal establishment. This election loss may strengthen party moderates, but Hickenlooper is not as well-known as others on the list. There may be a middle position where he helps elect Democratic governors, including his successor, but doesn’t start a campaign. Mostly what is required is a very strong commitment and plan of action. 

This is an extraordinary moment in the political life of the country and most politicians would savor the chance to be in the game. Hickenlooper will have to make a choice and then design a role that is comfortable for him.