Wednesday, January 11, 2017

Trump’s Rating Up, But Still Weak

Donald Trump was a plurality winner in the multi-candidate Republican primary and then won 46 percent of the electorate. He is likely to govern with less than half the country’s approval.

Since the November 8 election and during the nine weeks of transition, Donald Trump’s polling numbers have improved. His image, as rated by favorability, has nearly doubled from before the election. Most importantly, the public in general, while still very polarized by the election result, is more optimistic, reflected in numerous polls and a near 20000 Dow. But this still does not look like the usual presidential honeymoon. His ratings are well below historic norms and he has vulnerabilities related to his temperament and unpredictable, controversial statements (mostly self-generated tweets).

Trump’s approval rating, which will begin to be recorded on January 20, will likely be lower than recent presidents, but the political effect may be unpredictable like much of the election and transition. This may be the era of governance without majority support. Trump may be recalibrating the old indexes.

Wall Street Journal: Poll finds more Americans now view Donald Trump positively
Gallup: Trump maintains post-election bounce, but no new gains
Gallup: Trump’s transition approval lower than predecessors’
Fox News: Majority feels hopeful, yet low expectations for Trump

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