Greeks Say No – 61%; Late Polls Say 50-50?

The left wing Syriza government wins a no vote in a snap election Sunday, July 5. Final results were 61 percent to 39 percent. A total of 6.1 million votes, a little over half the electorate.

Most Greek polls predicted a close election, with a slight lead for the ‘no” vote, including those on July 4 and conducted in late June. But the series of polls just as news coverage became most intense from June 30 to July 3 showed the “yes” position in the lead within the margin of error, with 10 percent or more undecided. Reporting covered it as razor close.

• Greek Referendum Poll Shows Lead for “No” Vote, but Narrowing, Reuters, 7-1-15
• Poll Suggests Greek Referendum Close, but “Yes” has Momentum, Wall Street Journal, 7-3-15
• Poll Shows Greeks Split on Referendum on Austerity, ALCO for To Ethnos newspaper, Aljazeera, 7-3-15
• Greek debt crisis: Polls close in bailout referendum, BBC, 7-5-15

The polling in this election will no doubt be added to the growing list of recent polling mishaps.

See The Buzz:
Europeans Pick Least Hardworking and Most Corrupt
Populist Left Takes Command of Greece
The Europe of Brussels is Dead

Also see:
FiveThirtyEight: The Polls Were Bad in Greece. The Conventional Wisdom Was Worse.
Huffington Post: Why the Polls in Greece got it Wrong

Happy Fourth of July

The millions of Americans who displayed a flag, watched a parade and fireworks were participating in one of America’s leading characteristics – patriotism.

• Pew Research reported in their 25-year values comparison (1987 to 2012) that, in spite of increased partisan polarization, the percentage of Americans claiming to be very “patriotic” has remained consistently high – 89% in 2012 (never below 85% in over 25 years).
• In a 2006 study from the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) authored by Tom Smith, Director of the General Social Survey, America was the leading country out of 33 in pride of national accomplishments and second in national pride. National pride questions: “I would rather be a citizen of my country than any other country in the world,” and “Generally speaking, my country is a better country than most countries.” National pride in accomplishments, such as in science and technology, the arts, sports and political influence in the world.
• But in international and national studies, there are differences over time and among demographic groups. Nations recently experiencing terrorist attacks or that are in ascendance or decline based on their economic conditions and globalization can have significant variations in national pride.

Among Americans, 81 percent say they are either “extremely proud” (54%) or “very proud” (27%) to be an American. There is variation in the percentage saying they are “extremely proud,” with the height of 70 percent after the 9/11 terrorist attack declining to a more common mid-50 percent level from 2007 through today.

• Demographic differences include age, region and partisanship, with lesser percentages of young Americans, Westerners and Democrats stating they are “extremely proud.”

American Troops Will be Fighting ISIS in 2017

Although it won’t happen under this president, American troops will be back in Iraq and Syria fighting ISIS if public opinion is the guide. The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll indicates 60 percent of the public support sending troops for as “long as it takes” (28%) or “for a short period to allow the Iraqi Army to take over” (32%).

U.S. public opinion on commitments to war and military action must be gauged cautiously. Question wording, response categories and question order can have a major influence on the results. So can the first sign of blood. As the same NBC News/WSJ poll demonstrated, when support for combat troops to fight ISIS is put in a favorability question for presidential candidates, only 52 percent claim they would be more favorably disposed toward the candidate (and only 24% “much more favorable”) if they support deploying combat troops.

And, a recent Fox News poll (6-2-15) shows when a “boots on the ground” question is asked with a range of options for fighting ISIS, drones (71% favor) and more airstrikes (68% favor) are much more popular than “sending a limited number of U.S. ground troops to Iraq and Syria” (51% favor) or “sending a significant number of U.S. troops to Iraq and Syria” (37% favor).

But the same Fox News poll shows there is more than enough survey data to indicate that the ISIS-Middle East policy is in flux and likely to get tougher. The public believes ISIS is a significant threat. Republicans especially want action and the administration is seen as disengaged and uncommitted.

President Obama’s Middle East orientation is shaped by his commitment to end the American military involvement. His September 2014 action to deal with ISIS has been limited to air power, training and equipment, although the rhetoric has been aggressive – “degrade and destroy.” Objective assessments indicate ISIS continues to hold ground and expand its terror into Europe and North Africa. Reluctantly agreeing, the administration has made only modest shifts, most recently adding 500 more trainers.

Republican presidential candidates universally support additional resources to defeat ISIS and most support “boots on the ground.” They are in alignment with Republican partisans, whom 80 percent support and 51 percent are prepared for a long commitment.

See The Buzz:
Public Ahead of President on “Boots on Ground”
Panic in the White House – Foreign Policy
Fall of Ramadi – Obama’s Tet Offensive
Public Supports ISIS Authorization and Some Ground Forces
Obama’s Foreign Policy Era Coming to an End?

News Briefs

The State Water Plan, Save the Plan

James Eklund
CWCB Director

The state water plan is finally ready to move beyond values, goals and objectives to some actual solutions that will trigger legislation, administrative rules and voluntary actions by municipalities, utilities and other water providers. Some possible solutions that emerged from the need to close a very substantial water gap in 2050:

• Put conservation more firmly in the system; make it flexible, but firm;
• Prioritize projects identified as needed to close the water gap and expedite the state’s permitting process;
• Use incentives for green land use planning and building; and
• Incentives using water we have already: recycled, rain and grey water.

If Colorado wants to avoid California’s panicked drought reaction, we should use this opportunity and years of hard work to take some real action.

See The Colorado Independent: Waiting for Chapter 10: What’s the plan in the state water plan?

Denver Post Moves Digital to Top Position and Print as the Past

In a document offered as a guide to employees, Greg Moore of the Denver Post has described the

Gregory Moore,
Denver Post Editor

paper’s transition from a “newspaper” to digital platform in which paper still has a role, but not much.

Describing the new working groups and the skill sets that will have to be developed is the work of a Pulitzer Prize itself. It’s hard to imagine the region without a “paper,” but we are headed toward a “platform.” Hopefully, it can provide all the community benefits we have received from 150 years of great newspapers. We were diminished as a community by the loss of the Rocky Mountain News, a diminished and hard to find Post will be an even greater loss.

See Jim Romenesko blog: Memo: It’s time for Denver Post 4.0

Embassy Opens and Obama Wants to Travel

He may not make it this year, but if President Obama visits Cuba next year, he can visit a functioning U.S. Embassy. The U.S. and Cuba agreed to reestablish their embassies on July 20, closed since 1961.

Obama will be welcomed. The recent stealth poll conducted in Cuba suggests Obama is very popular among the average Cubans (80% favorability, 44% Fidel) and they want him to visit (89%). (See The Buzz: Castro Brothers in Trouble, 4-22-15; U.S. vs. Cuba – Finite, 4-16-15; and Cuba – The Public is Ready for a Change, 12-29-14)

The latest Chicago Council on Global Affairs survey affirms earlier U.S. surveys that the public favors ending the embargo with Cuba (67%). But only 53 percent believe the change will “improve political freedoms in Cuba” and only 39 percent of Republicans believe it. Cubans in the recent island poll agree with that sentiment and the Washington Post editorial page recently criticized Obama’s eagerness to visit Havana in the face of what they described as increased political repression on the island as rapprochement proceeds.

But allowing U.S. citizens to travel to the island and Cubans to travel to America are the most popular policy changes among both publics. Assuming citizen power may have more influence on changing people’s lives and views than government-to-government actions let the travel begin.

June 2015 – A Big Obama Month

June may have been the most successful month in Barack Obama’s presidency. The Supreme Court saved his signature legislative accomplishment for a second time in three years with a ruling concerning state-level subsidies (June 2012 ACA mandate ruled constitutional as part of taxing power). The Court also expanded gay rights by finding a constitutional right to marry. Republicans gave the President fastback trade legislation for eleven Asian-Pacific nations. Finally, on June 30, Obama announced an exchange of embassies’ agreement with Cuba and a new climate pact with Brazil (more of a soft pledge from President Rousseff to set a target by the end of the year).

Although the month brought mixed news on the economy, the public was more comfortable with Obama’s handling of it. And, of course, this president was able to highlight his commitment to improve race relations and his rhetorical if not music skills with a powerful eulogy in South Carolina and vigorous rendition of Amazing Grace.

In an early review of the President’s month, CNN showed his approval rating above 50 percent for the first time since his re-election and second inaugural. It had been a difficult two years since those heady days in early 2013, culminating in the 2014 election debacle. But Obama appears to have momentum.

The June 29 reading reflects a five point jump since the end of May (45%, May 31, 2015). He also improved his standing with the public on handling the economy (52%, up from the mid to lower 40% since 2009, the start of the Great Recession).

Although CNN numbers were the highest in the RealClearPolitics compilation of recent polls, it highlights the President’s powerful month. (The last time Obama’s CNN approval was above 50% was in May 2013 – 53%, inaugural 55%, 2012 re-election 52%).

Colorado’s Special Relationship with Gay Rights

The U.S. Supreme Court ruling overturning gay marriage bans as unconstitutional is the capstone of an extraordinary rise in public support, including among Coloradans. Nationally, support for gay marriage moved from 27 percent in 1996, to 37 percent at the beginning of the new century, to a majority for the first time in 2011. In April 2012, a PPP poll showed 53 percent of Colorado voters supported gay marriage, up from 47 percent in late 2011. Today, Gallup reports 60 percent of the nation favors legalizing gay marriage (57% in latest Pew poll).

Colorado has had a special and controversial relationship with gay rights. A high profile battle began in 1992 when social and religious conservatives initiated and helped pass by 53 percent a prohibition on state and local government allowing protections for gays in areas such as in housing and employment. It lead to a court fight, ending four years later in the Supreme Court where it was ruled unconstitutional in Romer v. Evans in an opinion written by Justice Anthony Kennedy.

In spite of that legal progress, Colorado voters waited another 10 years (2006) before joining many other states to approve a statewide constitutional ban on gay marriage. That same year they also rejected a referred statute legalizing civil unions.

But by 2012, with gay marriage gaining public opinion support and President Obama announcing his own evolution, the issue gained powerful political momentum. Advocates pushed state courts and legislatures toward legalization. Colorado’s Democratic-controlled legislature passed civil unions in its 2013 session. Finally, federal courts ruled the 2006 ban unconstitutional in 2014, which was upheld in last week’s Supreme Court ruling. Twenty-three years elapsed in Colorado from a ban of legal protection to a constitutional right, and from a narrow minority position to a public opinion majority. Amazing.

See:
Pew: Support for same-sex marriage at record high, but key segments remain opposed
Gallup: Record-high 60% of Americans support same-sex marriage