Comparing the Republican Field With Hillary Clinton

About 80 percent of the Colorado electorate are prepared to express a choice for president, and they are nearly equally divided between the Republican field and Hillary Clinton. In an early April Quinnipiac poll, Colorado voters placed Rand Paul as the top Republican challenger and Jeb Bush as the weakest in a field of seven candidates.

The following table shows the Republican candidates’ total support vs. Clinton’s placed in “( )” and the Republican support in each of the variables listed in a head-to-head with Clinton.

Paul vs. Clinton

Paul beat Clinton in the survey (44% to 41%) by capturing a larger percentage of Republicans (87%), two-fifths of the declared independents and the top percentage of men (50%) compared to in the field, similarly losing the least number of women to Clinton (38%) against the field.

A Clinton advantage against Paul and most of the Republican field is her hold on about 90 percent of Democrats. One exception is with Bush where she gets her lowest percentage (85%) and he picks up the largest share of Democrats (6%) among the Republican field. Bush tends to frighten Democrats less, but underperforms with Republicans. The gender gap is present, with Paul having a 15-point advantage with men but losing women by 7 points, the least in the field giving him an 8-point positive gap (the best among his fellow Republicans).

Bush vs. Clinton

A major reason for Bush’s last place position, along with him only receiving 81 percent of Republicans, was his gender gap numbers. Worse than losing women by 8 points was only winning men by 4 points, the lowest percentage in the field and 9 points below Paul, giving Bush a 4 point net gender deficit.

Among independent voters in this sample, the Republican field won them against Clinton by 5 points (Paul – 5, Christie – 4, Huckabee – 5, Walker – 7, Rubio – 3, Cruz – 5, Bush – 1). Bush’s losing independents by a point was another reason for the weak position in the field.

KOA Radio: Hillary Clinton is in the Race

April Zesbaugh and Steffan Tubbs on Monday morning at 6:41 am, the early drive time for Colorado's most powerful radio station, 850-KOA, launched their discussion with me on Hillary Clinton and her prospects for winning the 2016 presidency.

Steffan Tubbs & April Zesbaugh
Credit: csudhnews.com

I started with KOA with Election Night coverage in 1982, with a legendary voice of the Denver Bronco’s Bob Martin, who could read election results as expertly as football statistics.

Sports has always ruled Denver radio, but in the decade starting in the late 1980s, KOA, 9KUSA and the Rocky Mountain News used Ciruli Associate polls in joint programming of political coverage. Today, in spite of Colorado’s swing state status, political coverage is still not as important as sports and regular news, but political advertisings has made Denver’s media a valuable property. And consequently, elections have moved up on most stations’ programming.

Our most newsworthy item Monday morning was that Clinton’s handlers expect to raise and spend $1.5 to $2 billion dollars, double the 2012 Romney vs. Obama budget per candidate. A big number, and one reason why Colorado media is valuable.

Hillary Clinton in Colorado

The Clintons have won one presidential election in Colorado and lost one. In 1992, Bill Clinton, with the help of Ross Perot, denied what should have been an easy G.H.W. Bush victory. Four years later, Colorado reverted to its long history of preferring Republican presidential candidates and gave Bob Dole the nod by less than 2 points, while Clinton was winning the presidency by 8 points.

But Barack Obama broke the Republican hold on Colorado presidential politics with two substantial wins in 2008 and 2012. At the presidential level, Colorado is now considered a top tier swing state, but for many observers, there is a slight Democratic presumption based on Democratic advantage in a higher presidential turnout and the party’s very strong campaign apparatus.

Although Hillary Clinton inherits that platform, she faces significant challenges. She lost the Democratic activists in 2008 as Obama won the state caucus with major turnout from young voters and liberals. The party’s Hispanic and more moderate caucus attitudes favored Clinton. She won Pueblo and Adams counties. Motivating the state’s younger, liberal and African American voters will be a challenge.

As Mark Barabak wrote in the Los Angeles Times, Colorado and the interior West has become more competitive between the parties not less. Early in the Obama administration, Democrats hoped Colorado, Arizona and Nevada would be solidly Democratic and Montana a swing state. As we approach 2016, all three of the former appears in play and Montana more solidly Republican.

LA Times: The West is “Back in Play”

Mark Barabak
Photo: LA Times

Mark Barabak, a top national reporter with the Los Angeles Times, wrote Sunday on the front page that, although Barack Obama was able to bring much of the West into the Democratic fold in his two elections, most of the states in the interior Rocky Mountains are now in play for the 2016 presidential election. He quotes a host of Colorado political players and observers:

Mike Stratton, Colorado native, longtime Democratic strategists:
“It [Obamacare] glommed onto a lot of fears people have in the West about federal intrusion,” said Mike Stratton, a native Coloradan and longtime Democratic strategist. “From there it became part of a larger narrative, about big government and the IRS and Obama supposedly coming to take away your guns.”

Paul Harstad, Colorado-based Democratic pollster, worked for Obama’s presidential campaign:
“It is the hysteria and distortions of the right-wing media and Koch brothers apparatus and Republican officeholders that have polarized and alienated some. This is the same crowd that blindly denies climate change, appeals to bias against minorities and gays, doubts Obama’s citizenship and legitimacy and often won't even affirm evolution.”

Dick Wadhams, former Colorado Republican Party chairman agreed:
“To win, he said, Republicans will have to nominate someone with greater appeal, especially among women and minorities, than John McCain or Mitt Romney, the party’s last two nominees.

‘We can win with the right kind of candidates,’ said Wadhams, who has fought within his party to expand the outreach to Latinos and other minorities and tone down some of the harsher rhetoric surrounding issues like immigration. ‘A candidate who represents the future, who can articulate a Republican agenda in a way that attracts voters and doesn’t repel them.’”

Governor Hickenlooper:
“Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, a Democrat who survived a tough 2014 reelection fight even as Republicans knocked off the state’s senior U.S. senator, Mark Udall, said the winner here will be the candidate who can best ‘navigate toward the middle,’ regardless of party.

‘We’re one-third Republican, one-third Democratic and one-third independent,’ he noted in an interview. ‘There’s a lot of negotiation that has to go on.’

That, Hickenlooper said, is how things work in the West.”

I was quoted saying:
“But even some defenders lay a portion of the blame on Obama and his policies, especially the enactment of sweeping healthcare legislation, which they said did more than anything to undermine his image as a less activist, more moderate style of Democrat – especially after the law’s botched rollout. Floyd Ciruli, a nonpartisan Denver pollster who has charted decades of Colorado public opinion, said Obama’s support collapsed during the fight over healthcare and, though he carried the state in his 2012 reelection campaign, never recovered.”

9KUSA – The 2016 Presidential Election has Official Competition

As of Tuesday, April 7, the 2016 presidential contest has two declared competitors: Republican senators Ted Cruz of Texas and Rand Paul of Kentucky. And in Colorado on Tuesday, undeclared but actively campaigning candidate, former Florida governor Jeb Bush, was fundraising with gas and oil and other supporters.

Early returns from the declared candidates are mixed. Cruz raised a record sum from Super PACs in two weeks, $31 million, but he has since been overshadowed by the regular news and the sheer volume of prospective Republican candidates.

Photo: 9News

Rand Paul is still trying to explain his rapidly evolving foreign policy views. From his 2010 start in politics, he has represented the anti-war, anti-intervention sentiment among many Americans, especially young libertarians, his base. But events and the Obama administration’s foreign policy struggles have made the position untenable, especially in the Republican Party. Hence, Paul has shifted on Iranian negotiations, intervention against ISIS and foreign aid to Israel. And his explanations have included testy run-ins with the Washington cable news press corps.

Finally, in the busiest week in the nascent presidential campaign, reports indicate Hillary Clinton is on the cusp of her announcement for the Democratic nomination.

Colorado will continue to be a platform for aspiring nominees. It is a swing state with many passionate partisans who will work for candidates and help fund them.

Let the 2016 campaign begin!

See 9News: Campaigning for 2016 without a campaign

Could Rand Paul Win Colorado Caucus?

Senator Rand Paul has a national base of libertarians to begin his campaign with, but he has a major task to expand beyond the distant finish his father achieved in 2008 and 2012.

Ron Paul came in fourth in Colorado in the last two Republican nominating contests, which were won by Mitt Romney in 2008 and Rick Santorum in 2012.

Although Rand Paul polls nationally in the second tier (9%) after frontrunners Jeb Bush and Scott Walker (both 16%) (see The Buzz: Bush frontrunner and Paul tied in second tier), he does better in Colorado, where he placed at the top of the Republican field with Scott Walker in a February Quinnipiac poll and only lost to Hillary Clinton by 2 points (Bush lost by 8). In the latest Quinnipiac survey (out of the field April 7, the day Paul announced), Paul leads the Republican field and beats Clinton 44 to 41 percent.

Paul’s anti-career politician, anti-Washington, libertarian message is attractive to Colorado voters. And his effort to expand the party’s reach to younger voters, minorities and the tech-savvy (trips to Berkeley, Detroit and Silicon Valley) is smart and in the party’s interest.

Paul Rand presidential announcement, April 7, 2015
Photo: Reuters

But Paul remains an interesting longshot. Although there is a libertarian base of voters and funders, it’s modest compared to what is needed to win primaries and caucuses with typically 40 percent or more of the vote and many millions for media buys in expensive states, such as Florida. Like Ted Cruz, he’s young, won his first and only election for Senate in 2010, and populates the crowded conservative wing of the party, but Paul, similar to his dad, appears to have staying power.

See The Buzz: Clinton ahead by less than margin of error in Colorado

Bush Frontrunner and Paul Tied in Second Tier

Real Clear Politics lists twelve Republican candidates as presidential possibilities. The top six candidates hold two-thirds of the vote, and former Governor Jeb Bush, as of the first of April, is tied for first with Governor Scott Walker. Senator Rand Paul, who announced on Tuesday, is in a four-way tie for second place with nine percent.

Bush excels at raising funds, mostly using the old Bush finance machine, and his visit to Denver was no doubt lucrative. However, he does not appear to be particularly strong in early nominating states and loses to Hillary Clinton by seven points in the Real Clear Politics average match-up.  He’s not unique among the Republican field in losing to Clinton. No Republican on the list is closer than seven points with her, and Walker loses by eight.

Rand Paul’s launch started strong, hitting a lot of applause lines that appeal not only to rank and file Republicans, but some constituencies that are more independent of parties, such as Millennials and libertarians. But his argumentative temperament with reporters changed the storyline from his message to whether or not he is ready for prime time. Paul has had to change his pre-cast libertarian views after four years in the Senate and he struggles to explain the shifts or even what his positions are now. He may still receive a one- or two-point bump in his polling position, but it remains unclear if he can climb above his libertarian base in terms of fundraising and organization.