Barack Obama was hoping the last time in his eight-year term the War on Terror would ever be an issue was when it benefitted him in 2008. He was the president to end America’s wars.
But since September 2001, the War on Terror and our foreign fights have been frequent topics and, in some cases, dominated midterm elections. In the 2002 midterm, foreign policy helped President G.W. Bush and in 2006 hurting him.
Today, the first campaign advertisements are beginning to appear attacking Democratic senate candidates for their association with President Obama’s slow reaction to ISIS and the terror state.
In Colorado, Republicans have attacked Mark Udall for appearing to agree with Obama that ISIS wasn’t a threat. Udall, obviously concerned, rapidly responded with an ad that claims he’s a “respected leader on national security.”
See 9News: Udall launches TV ad focused on ISIS
Tuesday, October 7, 2014
Women in Politics
The first women arrived in Congress from Montana in 1917. Women received the right to vote as an amendment in 1920, the same year America outlawed liquor (repealed in 1933). Today, there are 99 women, about a fifth of the entire Congress of 535 (100 in Senate and 435 in House). It represents a third of all the women who have ever served (298). Today, Democrats tend to elect more, with 16 out of 20 women senators and 60 of the 79 House members.
There is considerable leadership among the women’s delegation, with Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic leader in the House. Diana DeGette is in second position in terms of seniority as a Democratic Chief Deputy Whip. The Senate has numerous women in leadership positions, such as Dianne Feinstein, head of the Intelligence Committee; Barbara Boxer, Environment; and Patty Murray, Budget.
Also, a large number of women are in key senate battleground races. Senators Jeanne Shaheen (NH), Mary Landrieu (VA) and Kay Hagan (NC) are Democrats fighting for re-election. Women challengers include Republican Joni Ernst in Iowa and Democrat Alison Grimes of Kentucky who is trying to defeat Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.
In 2014 in Colorado, a woman was selected as the Republican Lieutenant Governor nominee (Jill Repella), Cynthia Coffman is the Republican Attorney General nominee and Democrat Betsy Markey is running for State Treasurer. About a third of local municipal officials (mayors and councilpersons) are women. About a quarter of all state legislators nationwide are women. Colorado’s 41 out of 100 is the highest percentage among all 50 states.
There is considerable leadership among the women’s delegation, with Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic leader in the House. Diana DeGette is in second position in terms of seniority as a Democratic Chief Deputy Whip. The Senate has numerous women in leadership positions, such as Dianne Feinstein, head of the Intelligence Committee; Barbara Boxer, Environment; and Patty Murray, Budget.
Also, a large number of women are in key senate battleground races. Senators Jeanne Shaheen (NH), Mary Landrieu (VA) and Kay Hagan (NC) are Democrats fighting for re-election. Women challengers include Republican Joni Ernst in Iowa and Democrat Alison Grimes of Kentucky who is trying to defeat Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.
In 2014 in Colorado, a woman was selected as the Republican Lieutenant Governor nominee (Jill Repella), Cynthia Coffman is the Republican Attorney General nominee and Democrat Betsy Markey is running for State Treasurer. About a third of local municipal officials (mayors and councilpersons) are women. About a quarter of all state legislators nationwide are women. Colorado’s 41 out of 100 is the highest percentage among all 50 states.
Friday, October 3, 2014
Incumbents Don’t Always Win
The general rule is Colorado incumbent governors and senators win re-election. But, the rule has been suspended in moments of great turmoil. The 1970s was the last period of difficult times for Colorado incumbents. Two incumbent senators were defeated in 1972 and 1978 and one incumbent governor (1974).
The Vietnam War, Watergate, the rise of environmentalism and the coming of political age of the Baby Boomers destabilized the political environment and produced exceptionally high levels of dislike of the establishment and churn in the political marketplace.
The weak Great Recession recovery, the endless War on Terror and rise of the Millennial Generation is fueling the current turmoil and Colorado’s Governor Hickenlooper and Senator Udall could be the victims.
The Vietnam War, Watergate, the rise of environmentalism and the coming of political age of the Baby Boomers destabilized the political environment and produced exceptionally high levels of dislike of the establishment and churn in the political marketplace.
The weak Great Recession recovery, the endless War on Terror and rise of the Millennial Generation is fueling the current turmoil and Colorado’s Governor Hickenlooper and Senator Udall could be the victims.
Thursday, October 2, 2014
Will the Colorado State Legislature Change?
Democrats control the state legislature with a one seat advantage in the Senate and five in the House. The Senate is where the main battle is with seven seats getting the most attention and four of them in the state’s leading battleground county – Jefferson.
Only five House seats appear in play, meaning Republicans could reduce the Democratic majority, but are unlikely to change the leadership.
Very few legislative handicappers see the Senate going Republican due to the Democrats’ continued dominance in money and campaigns, but most admit a pro-Republican tide could change the local dynamics and give Republicans Senate control.
Only five House seats appear in play, meaning Republicans could reduce the Democratic majority, but are unlikely to change the leadership.
Very few legislative handicappers see the Senate going Republican due to the Democrats’ continued dominance in money and campaigns, but most admit a pro-Republican tide could change the local dynamics and give Republicans Senate control.
See 9News: Who will control the Colorado legislature?
Democratic Ticket in Trouble
Colorado Democrats are beginning to fear the conclusion of their eight-year dominance of Colorado politics may be within sight. The high point was two years ago when Democrats controlled both senate seats, the governorship and the legislature.
Senator Mark Udall now appears to be falling behind in public polls to Congressman Cory Gardner. His handlers have moved from arguing about the polls to claiming their hyper-GOTV effort will save the day. Maybe, but GOTV can’t turn out people in a weak persuasion environment.
But, the bigger problem is the collapse of Governor Hickenlooper’s re-election campaign. Even in August before the polls turned south on the Democrats, Hickenlooper was running behind Udall by two or more points. A failing incumbent governor could drag down the entire ticket.
Fundamentally, John Hickenlooper lost his highly valuable image as a centrist and non-politician with the 2013 Democratic legislature, the strange interaction with the Colorado Sheriffs, and the sudden and ill-presented death penalty decision.
Chuck Todd, host of Meet the Press, made the point in his 9KUSA discussion with me and Brandon Rittiman. Also see Nate Silver: “Senate Update: When Should Democrats Panic?” and “Senate Update: A Troubling Trend for Democrats in Colorado.”
Senator Mark Udall now appears to be falling behind in public polls to Congressman Cory Gardner. His handlers have moved from arguing about the polls to claiming their hyper-GOTV effort will save the day. Maybe, but GOTV can’t turn out people in a weak persuasion environment.
But, the bigger problem is the collapse of Governor Hickenlooper’s re-election campaign. Even in August before the polls turned south on the Democrats, Hickenlooper was running behind Udall by two or more points. A failing incumbent governor could drag down the entire ticket.
Fundamentally, John Hickenlooper lost his highly valuable image as a centrist and non-politician with the 2013 Democratic legislature, the strange interaction with the Colorado Sheriffs, and the sudden and ill-presented death penalty decision.
Wednesday, October 1, 2014
Argument Over AP History
Colorado has become the latest battleground over the control of high school history curriculum. The Jefferson County School Board wants to review the curriculum for balance. Teachers and students believe they want to censor and candy coat American history. This battle is being fought within a larger struggle between the board and the union for power and money.
9KUSA, Nelson Garcia, 9-26-14:
9News Political Analyst Floyd Ciruli says this is a debate that has spanned the nation. The Texas State Board of Education has taken up the issue and the Republican National Committee has issued statements showing concern over this curriculum.
“This is all part of an even bigger struggle,” Ciruli said.
He says conservative groups are worried about the type of students that are graduating from high school, politically.
“All the polls indicate that this generation is much more liberal than previous generations and they're convinced that at least part of it is because of what they've been taught,” Ciruli said.
Ciruli believes that AP U.S. history curriculum is being targeted for specific reasons.
“Those are your best history teachers. Those are your best history students,” Ciruli said. “That’s the place where you would be the most concerned that the history is from, the point of view of a conservative, balanced.”
9KUSA, Nelson Garcia, 9-26-14:
9News Political Analyst Floyd Ciruli says this is a debate that has spanned the nation. The Texas State Board of Education has taken up the issue and the Republican National Committee has issued statements showing concern over this curriculum.
“This is all part of an even bigger struggle,” Ciruli said.
He says conservative groups are worried about the type of students that are graduating from high school, politically.
“All the polls indicate that this generation is much more liberal than previous generations and they're convinced that at least part of it is because of what they've been taught,” Ciruli said.
Ciruli believes that AP U.S. history curriculum is being targeted for specific reasons.
“Those are your best history teachers. Those are your best history students,” Ciruli said. “That’s the place where you would be the most concerned that the history is from, the point of view of a conservative, balanced.”
The Color of Money is Not Necessarily Green
The billionaires, like Mr. Thomas Steyer, who want to promote a cleaner environment, are more than willing to forgo their causes and spend millions promoting other unrelated issues if they think it will get their candidate elected.
Steyer is pending millions for Mark Udall, producing and placing ads on reproductive rights.
Dan Boyce and Katie Kuntz have done an extensive investigation of campaign finances. They reported:
Dan Boyce and Katie Kuntz, KUNC 91.5, 9-29-14
“We are seeing a just a tremendous amount of advertising just around one topic – reproductive rights,” said Denver political analyst Floyd Ciruli, “because of their belief, the campaigns’ belief that it is persuasive.”
Hot-button issues bring people to the polls. These topics get undecided voters fired-up in a way that energy issues don’t, according to Ciruli’s research.
“The money would turn off here in a minute if it looked like either the Democrats or Republicans were consistently ahead, you would see the money disappear,” Ciruli said.
Katie Kuntz, Post Independent, 9-21-14
“If you run around the country there are maybe 10 states that have really competitive races and Republicans need to win six Senate seats to win the Senate — Colorado is very competitive,” said political analyst Floyd Ciruli. “It’s not quite a Super Bowl, that’d be the presidential race — but we’re in a very major, close playoff.”
“It is a straight-out brawling competition,” Ciruli said. “The people who play it may be personally idealistic, but in the way they play the game they are totally realists, and research shows them that climate change is not nearly as effective at moving voters as things like reproductive rights.”
“TV ads are number one, the overwhelming most important tool in winning one of these campaigns,” Ciruli said. “If Channel 9 has another minute, you can bet it will get bought.”
Steyer is pending millions for Mark Udall, producing and placing ads on reproductive rights.
Dan Boyce and Katie Kuntz have done an extensive investigation of campaign finances. They reported:
Dan Boyce and Katie Kuntz, KUNC 91.5, 9-29-14
“We are seeing a just a tremendous amount of advertising just around one topic – reproductive rights,” said Denver political analyst Floyd Ciruli, “because of their belief, the campaigns’ belief that it is persuasive.”
Hot-button issues bring people to the polls. These topics get undecided voters fired-up in a way that energy issues don’t, according to Ciruli’s research.
“The money would turn off here in a minute if it looked like either the Democrats or Republicans were consistently ahead, you would see the money disappear,” Ciruli said.
Katie Kuntz, Post Independent, 9-21-14
“If you run around the country there are maybe 10 states that have really competitive races and Republicans need to win six Senate seats to win the Senate — Colorado is very competitive,” said political analyst Floyd Ciruli. “It’s not quite a Super Bowl, that’d be the presidential race — but we’re in a very major, close playoff.”
“It is a straight-out brawling competition,” Ciruli said. “The people who play it may be personally idealistic, but in the way they play the game they are totally realists, and research shows them that climate change is not nearly as effective at moving voters as things like reproductive rights.”
“TV ads are number one, the overwhelming most important tool in winning one of these campaigns,” Ciruli said. “If Channel 9 has another minute, you can bet it will get bought.”
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