President and Global Warming

President Obama believes – like Secretary Kerry – that global warming is a Doom’s Day issue. Kerry said in a recent speech to Indonesian students that it was more serious than nuclear proliferation, a comparison that was considered in many quarters as out of proportion.

But, global warming as a priority is not shared by the American people. The issue is considered a major threat to this country by only 40 percent of the public, well below most of the rest of the world. When asked to rate the importance of issues, global warming is usually at the bottom of the list, below the economy, the deficit and health care. When foreign items are included, it rates below Islamic extremism and Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs.

The President’s interest after years of neglect has been a rhetoric regular, but no real effort put behind, makes it look more like a 2014 campaign theme for liberal and youth turnout than any sudden reprioritization. In fact, in 2009, when the newly inaugurated Obama had political clout and control of the House, the main climate change legislation, cap and trade, was held back as Obamacare and finance issues were given priority, to never to be seriously considered again.

At this point in his career, the President is a more of a polarizer than a persuader. What support for climate change action exists is highly divided by partisanship. Only 27 percent of respondents to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll said climate change should be a top priority this year. Three times the number of Democrats than Republicans agreed, but even among Democrats, it was less than a majority.

See Wall Street Journal: Obama Climate-change push faces a lukewarm public

Divided Colorado Democratic Party

A division in the Colorado Democratic Party offers the first local threat to its dominance of Colorado

Gov. John Hickenlooper

politics since 2006. An important part of the success of Colorado Democrats has been their ability to avoid primaries and issues that could leave them bitterly divided and unable to unite on Election Day.

Fracking may be the issue to crack the Democratic Party unity and produce a general election where leading candidates, John Hickenlooper and possibly Mark Udall, cannot unite a strongly divided Democratic Party.

As I told Channel 9 News Brandon Rittiman:

“The Democratic party is particularly vulnerable because it is highly divided,” said 9NEWS political analyst Floyd Ciruli.

Hickenlooper is among establishment Democrats who are supportive of the oil and gas industry, while grassroots environmentalists want to curb fracking.

A prominent ballot question on the issue could pose a threat to Hickenlooper among voters in the Democratic base who oppose oil and gas development.

“The governor could be criticized during much of the campaign for being on the wrong side of that issue,” said 9NEWS political analyst Floyd Ciruli. “He could potentially lose environmental votes and front range votes.

The party desperately wants a compromise to reduce the full tension, but after a week of negotiations with essentially itself, Democrats failed to agree.

From the point of view of a large bloc of Democrats, the party leadership is on the wrong side of the fracking issue, and that conflict will be front and center on the November ballot in a multi- and million-dollar campaign.

Party Divided on Fracking

Governor John Hickenlooper gathered headlines and cash as the first quarter 2014 financial reports showed he raised $1 million and now totally dominates the field ($1.6 million cash on hand). The combined first quarter take of his Republican opponents doesn’t equal one million dollars.

His performance shows that much of Colorado’s political money establishment has decided Hickenlooper looks like a winner.

But, the week was not all good news. Democrats were unable to put aside their differences over fracking and, more generally, deal with global warming, which are the core issues now fracturing the party.

Several polls show fracking has narrow support in Colorado and a complete ban is opposed, but the Democratic Party is highly divided, and two-thirds (42% Quinnipiac poll) say they are less likely to support candidates who support fracking.

Will Foreign Policy Effect the 2014 Elections?

The usual rule is no. Short of a war or crisis, voters and campaigns are usually focused on domestic
not foreign issues. President Obama benefited in 2008 from the hangover from the Iraq War, but since then elections have been dominated by domestic issues: the economy, health care and social issues.

But the President’s approval rating is a factor in the election, and to the extent a series of foreign policy mini-crises and missteps mount up, the President’s and his administration’s credibility can be damaged. And, with his public approval in the mid-40s for more than six months, the administration can ill afford another blow to its credibility.

At some point, the sheer volume of issues begins to create an image of a defensive and ill-managed foreign policy.

• Syria – Delayed decisions on arming rebels, no enforcement of red line. Assad still in power.
• Russia – Few good options, mostly playing defense to Putin’s expansionist strategy
• Japan and Asia – No trade agreement, less confidence America has made a pivot or is dependable
• Israel/Palestine – No progress after high-profile effort, Israel may be worse for it
• Iran – Sanctions worked, but negotiations not helped by administration appearing weak. Harder to get a deal, harder to sell it to Senate.

Criticism on the administration’s foreign policy is not just coming from Republicans, but the editorial pages of the Washington Post, New York Times and a substantial portion of the foreign policy establishment.

The recent “reassurance tour” from Eastern Europe through the Mideast and on to Asia confirms that the U.S. and the President are now seen as less reliable. The “reassurance tour” flows directly from the “apology tour” according to some critics who believe the administration was convinced that merely reversing and apologizing for Bush’s policies was the basis of a successful foreign policy.

Although the administration’s strategy over the last six years has its defenders, it is now being overwhelmed by events that it appears struggling to address. Obama and his team believe the American people have no interest in foreign engagement. They may be right. But, Americans are a proud and patriotic people, which show itself repeatedly during crises. They also expect leadership when America’s interests appear threatened. Adding foreign policy weakness to domestic irritation could make 2014 even more inhospitable to Democrats in 2014.

See The Buzz posts:

American Foreign Policy Moving to the Right
Obama in Foreign Policy Trouble
Obama Receives Little Support for Handling Ukraine Crisis
Putin’s Lectures
Clinton Moves Right on Russia

The End is Near – Good News for Democrats

The instruction was to lower their profile and get out of town with a few gains and no damage. But after four months, the latest Quinnipiac poll shows that the Colorado State Legislature’s approval is still in the cellar at 34 percent. Barely half of Democrats (56%) approve the performance of the Democratically-controlled legislature. And, their reputation has not been helped by a series of legislative missteps this year.

The House leadership’s sudden late effort to banning photo-radar cameras with a high-profile announcement of bipartisan support collapsed amid a storm of complaints from law enforcement and mayors. It’s now a study.

They appeared unaware a majority of the public supported red-light cameras at “dangerous intersections” (50% approve, 39% do not).

As I said to the Denver Post:

“It’s really one of those items where Hickenlooper, no matter what his position is, he’ll upset some people,” said political analyst Floyd Ciruli. “He hasn’t used his veto all that often, and this could be interesting time to use it.”

Earlier in this session, the Speaker proposed a massive change in the funding formulas for higher education, which was resisted by the education establishment and fellow legislators. Whatever passes will be a shadow of the ambition.

And finally, for the purpose of helping vulnerable legislators by generating a wedge issue, the Senate managed to look undisciplined as a meaningless resolution on abortion rights allowed conservatives to organize one of the year’s biggest rallies.

Usually, the public is unaware of what happens at the state legislature, but as last year’s recalls showed, 2014 may be a year voters are paying attention.

Republicans Beware, Obama is at his Best in a Campaign

There will be a long debate about President Obama’s place in history, but his re-election and daily tracking polls confirm that what he and his team are really good at is campaigning.

Watching the six-year track of approval polls show the rapid drop from his inaugural highs, through the health care passage in early 2010, the continuing weak economy, and into the debt ceiling debacle in mid-2011 – a clear pattern developed that governing left more voters disapproving than approving his performance.

But in late 2011 the campaign began, and by mid-2012, the political recovery was on. Obama hit his highs from the election to his inaugural in January 2013. But once the governing started, it’s been all downhill with the crash in December of last year from the effects of the botched ACA introduction when some polls showed approval dropped below 40 percent.

But, the campaign is back on and Obama’s approvals have ticked up since December to near the mid-40s today. With a little help from the economy and fewer foreign crises, he could, if not become an asset in the 2014 election, at least be less of a burden. And, although the ACA moves the Republican base, the issue is getting long of tooth and may be less the silver bullet it appeared a month ago.

Govern, who knows. But campaign, you bet.

Republicans Debate on Channel 9

9KUSA held a Republican debate and all the participants scored points, but is Tom Tancredo, the non-participant, the real winner?

Tancredo has refused to debate, claiming that the format leads to arguments among the candidates and just harms the ultimate winner in the general election. Not true so far this year. The candidates have kept their aim mostly at Governor Hickenlooper and the Democrats. More likely, Tancredo assumed he would be the target of most of the attacks as the frontrunner. He also, no doubt, calculated that his voters are going to show up and the debates just help the rest of the field.

Two recent polls show Governor Hickenlooper beating the field, but not reaching 50 percent, except in one poll where he’s matched against Tancredo. Tancredo also has the highest name identification. No candidate gets closer to Hickenlooper than seven points (which is beyond the margin of error).

Possibly the most important statistic in the Quinnipiac poll is the percentage of Republican voters who could not rate the four candidates on a favorability scale. Two-thirds of Republicans were not able to rate their candidates, except Tancredo who could not be rated by only 36 percent of the Republicans in the poll. Obviously, much of the support these candidates received against Hickenlooper was based on partisanship.

Money is going to be important for the June 24 primary, and Bob Beauprez may have an advantage if he wants to self-finance (notice 65% of voters claim to not be aware of him). The debate performance indicated if an experienced, calm adult is the party preference, Beauprez may be the man. However, he still needs to convince the rank and file he can take the battle to an incumbent who has a 7- to 10-point lead against the entire field.