Obama Still in Trouble

Presidents seldom win political points when Americans believe the country is in trouble and Washington politics is an embarrassment. In the post shutdown environment, euphoric Capitol Democratic leaders have been celebrating their good fortune of defeating Senator Ted Cruz and House Republicans after the Obamacare showdown.

But, the President’s approval, which had been in the doldrums since its high between his re-election (52%) and inauguration (50%), has taken another hit in the latest budget crisis. Obama’s average approval is at 44.5 percent for the July to October quarter as measured by Gallup.

It has declined steadily since the beginning of 2013. The average from January to April 2013 slipped to 48 percent, a period which included gun control, immigration reform and the sequester.

In the last three months, along with the long and mostly fruitless discussions around the budget and the Affordable Care Act, the President dealt with Syria, which arrived at a preferred result, but haphazardly in public opinion terms. During the budget confrontation, his October approval rating dropped as low as 41 percent. The last time his approval was that low was at the weak start of his re-election campaign in November 2011.

Obama’s approval is near President George W. Bush’s in October 2005 (43.9%) when Bush was dealing with Hurricane Katrina. Recall the 2006 midterm was a disaster for Republicans.

Although Democrats clearly got a boost from the October budget and shutdown, the President may be of no help to their partisan aspirations in 2014 and have limited clout to move any of his agenda in the remainder of 2013.

And, of course, that is not considering Obamacare, which appears to be an ongoing political burden for the President and his party.

Hickenlooper Looking for a Bigger Win

As Governor John Hickenlooper approaches his re-election, he would like to exceed the weak 51 percent win of 2010. The narrow margin was a surprise in some ways and expected in others.

Although he faced a very weak field between Dan Maes, the discredited Republican nominee who barely received double digits (11%), and former Congressman Tom Tancredo, who ran as an independent (36%), 2010 was a Republican wave year and nearly swept away everything in front of it.

Hickenlooper’s polling was never that high, no doubt reflecting his lack of statewide exposure (no previous election, no primary), the continued close division of Colorado politics and the good Republican year.

Unfortunately for Hickenlooper as he begins his re-election, several factors have kept him on the defensive. In his own party, his support of natural gas production and fracking makes him the recipient of much public berating from anti-hydrocarbon activists. His handling of the Nathan Dunlap reprieve was broadly panned and the Democratic legislative session was judged by many as too aggressive with insufficient gubernatorial restraint (no vetoes). Gun rights activists have targeted him and Republicans, in general, have gotten more engaged in defeating him.

In recent history, Colorado governors have been re-elected by solid percentages, often above 60 percent.

Obamacare Implementation Major Problem

But for partisan shading, the majority of the public believe the implementation of HealthCare.gov is not just a computer “glitch” as President Obama likes to refer to it, but a “harbinger of bigger problems for the Affordable Care Act.” (Washington Post, 10-21-13)

Washington Post poll reports voters see the website as part of broader problem for ACA implementation:

• Republicans more than 8 in 10
• Independents – 55%
• Democrats – 60% isolated incident

Nearly half oppose the law and 46 percent support it, but only 33 percent don’t support the law and want to repeal it.

Shutdown Puts Washington Dysfunction at Top of Public’s Agenda

Since the 2008 financial meltdown, the economy and jobs have been the “most important problems facing America today.” But, in the first week of October, Washington’s poor performance has made dysfunctional government the most important problem facing the country.

The last time a failure of government leadership dramatically appeared on the public’s radar was during the last shutdown in 1996. But, then only 17 percent of the public cited it and the deficit and budget rated higher.

Beyond the high percentage of voters who identified leadership as the problem was the rapid movement from less than 20 percent to a third of the public in less than a month. Movement shows interest and intensity. And, it signals a problem for incumbent, especially D.C., politicians.

See Gallup: Dysfunctional gov’t surpasses economy as top U.S. problem

Coffman Most Hurt by Shutdown

Congressman Mike Coffman is in the second most vulnerable seat in the county and has been hurt by the shutdown.

The generic ballot test, which tends to measure the advantage or disadvantage local congressional candidates can expect from their party identity, gave Democrats a two-point advantage most of the year. Historically, that suggested no real affect due to Republicans’ slight advantage in non-presidential year election turnouts.

That number jumped to six points favoring the Democrats in the last two weeks. The speed of the shift suggests much voter interest and aggravation with Washington. The bulk of the blame landed on the Republicans, which will likely, if it is sustained, harm candidates, like Coffman, in closely contested seats.

See:
9News: Shutdown deal reflects Colorado delegation politics
The Cook Political Report: October House overview: GOP risk factors

Unions and Reformers Battle Over School Boards

Although the teachers’ unions are spending millions in partnership with school reformers in support of the billion-dollar per year revenue increase, they are battling reformers for control of local school boards.

It is at the school district level where reform is implemented and revenue is distributed in salaries and benefits. And, it’s at the local level where unions tend to dominate.

But, the November election will feature high-profile school board races in Denver and Douglas counties, where the union is on the defensive. The two counties are the center of the statewide effort to support school choice and teacher accountability.

See:

EdNews Colorado: DPS campaign giving tops $600,000
Our Parker News: Campaign funds tell different stories in school board race

Organized Labor All in for Amendment 66

Colorado and national teachers’ unions have contributed to Amendment 66 a combined $4 million, which represents half the funds raised by the mega-financed proposal.

Labor obviously believes the billions in new revenue, which will largely go to unionized teachers, is worth having to endure any reforms they oppose.

Of course, they have made clear they will oppose the reforms in court, future legislatures and at the school district level. In fact, the Denver Teachers’ Union is currently financing anti-reform school board candidates.

Will organized labor’s spending of millions on TV and for paid canvasing GOTV be enough to overcome the obvious lack of voter enthusiasm for the tax increase or does it just reinforce the public’s skepticisms that the reform elements in the proposal are illusionary?

See EdNews Colorado:

Colorado Commits fundraising tops $7.7 million Colorado Commits fundraising continues to accelerate