Senators Take on the Senator

The 2014 U.S. Senate race is beginning to generate some competition. Mark Udall, incumbent, who still is much favored to win, can now speculate on an opponent. Although none of the early competition looked formidable, he must have some concern about the continued poor reputation of Congress and the collapse of President Obama’s approval rating (Obama is 6 points negative).

A recent poll showed Udall with less than 50 percent approval (45%) and a quarter (24%) of the public unable to rate him. After five years, he’s not making much of an impression.

Republicans, after a slow start, have three legislators either announcing their intent to run or seriously investigating the race.

• Senator Randy Baumgardner. Western Slope senator, conservative, colorful, but no access to money or a population base.
• Senator Owen Hill. New state senator, bright, good resume from Colorado Springs.
• Representative Amy Stephens, former House Majority Leader, strong campaigner from Colorado Springs.

Along with these new faces, former Congressman Bob Beauprez continues to mull the race. He served as the party’s chief spokesman during the presidential campaign, but still carries the baggage of the weak governor’s race in 2006. As a member of the Republican establishment, he doesn’t have much support with passionate right. But, he is the best-known of the group and could raise some initial money.

See The Buzz:
Udall in trouble
Udall faces challenges

Choice is Highest School Reform Priority

Colorado voters are beginning a discussion on how to improve public education and to decide if they should add one billion dollars to teachers, programs, capital projects and technology.

A new Denver regional poll highlights voters’ beliefs that “choice among public schools, charter schools and private schools” will be effective to lower dropout rates, get more children into college and improve the entire public school system.

Three-quarters of regional voters supported encouraging providing charter schools and open enrollment.

The public is ahead of most of the politicians, including advocates, for school choice, who continue to defer action while anti-reform groups fight to delay or derail choice.

The question will be: Is the reform offered in the initiative sufficient to justify one billion more in taxes into a somewhat improved current system?

The survey was sponsored by ACE Scholarships, which provides private funding for low-income students to attend private schools of their choice.

See EdNews Colorado: Hick weighs in again on ballot measure; Ciruli opines

Denver Metro Voters Rate K-12 Alternatives Higher

Independent, parochial and charter schools are rated higher than public schools by Denver metro voters. A recent metro voter survey incorporated a question developed by the Gallup poll asking residents how they rate K-12 schools on a scale of excellent, good, only fair or poor.

Both metro residents and the public nationwide rate independent private, parochial or church-related, and charter schools higher than public schools. Denver metro residents rate the area’s public schools substantially higher than the ratings public schools receive nationally (50% to 37%).

The survey was sponsored by ACE Scholarships, which provides private funding for low-income students to attend private schools of their choice.

Just at the moment Colorado voters are debating how to reform public education and fund the effort with a one billion dollar tax increase, it is clear the public prefers alternatives to traditional public schools.

What is not clear is if the new initiative sufficiently addresses the public’s strong preference for school choice.

Campaign for One Billion Education Tax is Game Changer

The campaign to add $1 billion dollars to K-12 education funding in Colorado started its petition drive to acquire 86,160 valid signatures by August 4. Proponents believe it will be a game changer for education.

• They will get their signatures. The education establishment is the state’s largest government industry.
• They will spend record amounts to pass the tax.
• But statewide taxes are difficult to pass and this will be a low turnout election.
• There is anger at the Denver legislature’s alleged overreach and ignoring non-metro areas.

An interview with Marianne Goodland of the Colorado Statesman said:

“But local pollster Floyd Ciruli said Tuesday that ‘Colorado voters are hardly easy targets for state tax increases, and this income tax hike is major.’

Petitions for the ballot measure, known as Initiative 22, headed out on June 17. Supporters must collect at least 86,105 valid signatures by Aug. 5, a task that Ciruli opined is ‘a modest undertaking.’ 

Strong backing from the Colorado education and business community may mean a better chance of success for Initiative 22 in a statewide election than has been the history in the past few years, according to Ciruli.

The historical track record for statewide tax increases doesn’t bode well for the campaign, he said this week. ‘The presumption is against them… very few have had any luck raising taxes statewide.’ People are much more willing to support local school boards, bonds and mill levy overrides than statewide tax increases, Ciruli explained. He pointed to the effort in 2011 by Sen. Rollie Heath, D-Boulder, to ask voters to approve a measure similar to Initiative 22. The 2011 measure, Proposition 103, sought to increase income tax rates from 4.63 percent to 5 percent, but it also included a temporary increase in sales taxes. More than one million votes were cast on the issue, but voters resoundingly rejected it, 64 to 36 percent.

Heath stood alone when he announced Proposition 103, and he never gained the formal backing of the CEA, although his initiative was supported by a number of other education groups, including Great Education Colorado. But in the end it gained only 36 percent of the vote. ‘I think [Initiative 22] will gain significant support from the Democratic Party and education establishment.’ Ciruli predicted the measure would get more than 35 percent, but the question is whether it can get to 50 percent plus one. ‘History will suggest this will be very difficult.’

Another hurdle to be overcome for Initiative 22 supporters may be the ‘mini-revolt’ going on in state politics. Ciruli said that the current attitude toward what came from the General Assembly during the last session may set the theme for what the election season looks like. People are angry and may have a ‘hostile attitude toward taxes,’ he said. That anger is most visible in the recall efforts and the secession movement in northern Colorado, he added.

‘If the [Colorado Commits to Kids] campaign does a good job and turn out their voters, those who work in education or parents with students in public schools, they can potentially dominate the election,’ Ciruli said. But in an odd-year election, ‘electors are older and more conservative, and at this moment, angry.’
The campaign is off to a good start on its fundraising, and Ciruli says this should be one of the best-funded initiatives in quite a while. ‘I wouldn’t be surprised if this was at least a $4 million or $5 million campaign,’ he said.” (Colorado Statesman, 7-3-13)

Indeed, the initiative will be a game changer, but less in terms of educational outcomes, which frankly only change slowly, if at all, in the public system. More importantly for the political landscape, if it wins, it will signal the new progressive era in Colorado that began in 2004 is secure and moving forward. But if it loses, it will be a major setback for Democrats and tax spending advocates. Transportation, higher education and a myriad of “needs” are waiting in line for voter approval.

See:
The Buzz: One billion for schools: Reform or bailout?
The Buzz: November ballot will test Democrats’ and education establishment’s power

Colorado Remains a Presidential Battleground

Governor Chris Christie and Senator Marco Rubio, who are on the list of leading Republican presidential nominees, run even with Hillary Clinton in early Colorado face-offs. Christie beats Clinton 44 percent to 41 percent and Rubio leads 46 percent to 45 percent for Clinton.

The poll also tested Vice President Biden, and he lost to both by double digits, a sign that Colorado may be swinging back Republican after two Democratic wins by Barack Obama. Without a high-profile, even if somewhat polarizing candidate like Clinton, Colorado Democrats appear in trouble in this early test.

The Quinnipiac poll cited above was from June 14, 2013. Gallup released a poll the same day and confirmed the early frontrunners for the Republican nomination are four national legislators; Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz and Governor Christie.

See:
The Buzz: Ryan, Paul lead Republican pack
Gallup: Paul Ryan a favorite of Republicans
Quinnipiac: Christie, Rubio, Clinton close in 2016 Colorado race; Udall gets lukewarm reelection support for 2014

November Ballot Will Test Democrats’ and Education Establishment’s Power

Initiative 22, the $950 million income tax increase, will be on the November ballot, assuming the advocates can gather 86,105 valid signatures, a modest undertaking given the powerful forces supporting the bill.

But, as recounted in a blog on June 11, the initiative faces a difficult political environment. And, the biggest challenge is the diminished turnout in odd-year elections. It was just two years ago when less than a million votes crushed Proposition 103, State Senator Rollie Heath’s half a billion dollars temporary tax for K-12 education.

The 2011 voters were in an anti-tax mood, to some extent left over from the 2010 Tea Party-dominated election. Heath was largely on his own. This year, the full weight of the Democratic Party and the state’s education establishment are behind this initiative. They are hoping to attract the business and general civic communities due to the initiative’s accompaniment by a significant education reform measure.

However, Colorado voters are hardly easy targets for state tax increases, and this income tax hike is major.

It remains to see what the general mood is toward the initiative, but there is a mini revolt brewing among some voters upset with the Democrat’s aggressive legislative agenda.

Iran Needs a Shift in Strategy

The latest Pew Global poll shows Iran is one of the least respected nations in the world. With few exceptions, international publics, including Iran’s neighbors, believe the nation is a pariah state. The vast majority of people in 31 nations surveyed said:

• They have generally unfavorable views of Iran – 59%
• They believe government doesn’t respect its citizens’ freedoms – 61%
• They oppose Tehran’s nuclear ambition

Although President-elect Hassan Rouhani, deemed a moderate, may reflect little more than a public relations shift given the structured choices Iranian citizens have in their presidential field and the final authority of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country is greatly in need of a leader who can overhaul its image.

The image is a product of not only the intransigence of the religious and other leadership to engage in serious nuclear negotiations, but to the country’s association with terrorist activities and the near comedic diplomatic strategy of former President Ahmadinejad with his confrontational speeches and overtures to leaders, like Hugo Chavez.

The belligerent and ineffectual foreign policy is responsible for an economy strangled with sanctions. Even the limited campaigning allowed, which included two debates, highlighted the general dissatisfaction with the state of affairs. Improving relations with the world, ending sanctions, controlling inflation and getting the economy moving were repeated by most of the candidates.

The election result appears to confirm a substantial body of opinion in favor of a lighter touch. If Rouhani represents a real change, can he get some room to operate?

See The Buzz: Lead from rear – lose control