New Polls Show Colorado Close, But Moving

The Denver Postfinally weighed in with a September 14 automated poll that reported Barack Obama is up by one point in Colorado.  The Internet has made it harder for local media to claim much news value on races receiving extensive national news and polling coverage.  For example, on September 17, Rasmussen in one of his automated polls reports Mitt Romney ahead by two points.  And, a day later, CBS/New YorkTimes/Quinnipiac polling partnership agreed with the Post and placed Obama ahead one point.  On Thursday, September 20, NBC News/WallStreet Journal/Marist consortium weighed in with a 50 percent to 45 percent result for Obama.  If that represented opinion movement, or margin of error difference, with the preceding polls will evolve, it produces a modest two percent arithmetic average for Obama in Colorado.

But, at the moment, Mitt Romney is no doubt pleased the race appears tight.  Obama had been up three points or more in most August and early September polls.  Also, numerous polls in other toss-up states currently show him losing most of them, some not even close.  Many national polls and much commentary appear to be moving toward Obama.

The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll has Obama up five points (9-16).  It joins Fox (9-11) and CBS News/New York Times (9-14) that have shown Obama ahead five and three points, respectively, in the last week.  The biggest spread was offered by Pew – eight points (9-16).  However, both Gallup and Rasmussen daily tracking polls have kept the race closer (Gallup: Obama – tie (9-19); Rasmussen: Romney – 1 point (9-20)).

Also see:  Washington Times:  Obama, Romney still dead even in Colorado

Battleground Strategy Working for Obama

In 2011, the Obama campaign identified its battleground states and assumed that Mitt Romney was the most likely opponent.  The ground machine was installed, the presidential visits began, and within weeks of Romney’s designation as the presumptive nominee, the air war was launched with massive attack advertising.

The strategy appears to be working.  Barack Obama is leading in 8 of the 9 toss-up identified states.  He could be heading to a narrow national victory (3 percentage points today), but a substantial electoral vote sweep due to the strategy (332 to 206, or 23 percentage point spread).

Out of nine states generally seen as the battlegrounds for the presidential election, using the Real Clear Politics averages, Romney is only ahead in one – North Carolina (5 points).  Obama is ahead in the remaining eight states, with an average two-point lead.  However, Iowa and several states with one-point differences are essentially toss-ups.  And, in all nine states, local or national conditions could shift the momentum very quickly.

In three other states with substantial campaigning, Obama leads in two in current polling (Michigan: Obama 6 points, Pennsylvania: Obama 8 points, Missouri: Romney 7 points).

Looking at the electoral map, if Obama takes all the states Democrats regularly win (and current polls show substantial leads), he will have 237 electoral votes toward the needed 270.  Romney will have 191 by that criterion.  If Obama takes the nine toss-up states he currently leads, he would pick up 95 out of the 110 electoral votes in the toss-up list.  Obama would win with 332 electoral votes – down from his 365 in 2008, but still a 33-vote cushion.

This is why when the story of the 2012 election is told, and if Obama wins, his strategy of putting the bulk of his campaign in the battleground states and starting the visits and air war early may be seen as the key to his victory.

See Gallup:  Democratic enthusiasm swells in the swing states, nationally

By the October 3rd Debate, Voting Will Have Started – Colorado Begins October 22nd

Time is running out for presidential campaigns.  By the time Denver hosts the October 3rd presidential debate, Iowa will have been voting for nearly a week (Sept. 27).  Critical Ohio begins the day before the debate (Oct. 2).

Toss-up states Colorado and Florida will begin early voting on October 22 and 27, respectively.  More than 70 percent of Colorado’s votes will likely be cast before Election Day (79% in 2008).

All western states allow early voting and no-excuse absentee voting, except Oregon and Washington which have an “all mail” voting.

Obama Holding Narrow Lead

As of mid-September, Barack Obama is holding onto a post-convention bounce of three points (Sept. 18) in the Real Clear Politics polling average.  If the same patterns as the 2008 and 2004 elections apply, his lead today indicates a November re-election, but his vote spread is cut more than in half from his seven percent victory over John McCain in 2008.

Obama is three points ahead of Mitt Romney today, and four years ago at the same mid-September point he was eight points ahead of John McCain.

Four years ago this was the critical period for the McCain campaign as it was forced to deal with the financial meltdown – Lehman Brothers collapsed on September 15 – and the shaky media performance of Sarah Palin.

In 2004, John Kerry was slightly behind after the conventions and lost a close race that finally hinged on Ohio and about a 100,000-vote margin for G.W. Bush.

Every historical pattern is meant to be deviated from, and Romney may still alter the polling trend.  But early voting starts in about two weeks in Iowa and shortly thereafter in a half dozen toss-up states.

Coloradans Don’t Favor More Gun Laws or Machine Pistols

Both national and recent Colorado polls don’t provide much support for more gun regulations, but a majority of voters support specific proposals related to reducing access to certain types of weapons, armor and ammunition.

The August New York Times/CBS/Quinnipiac poll reported only 38 percent of Colorado voters favored more strict laws.

To some extent, the lack of reaction to the Aurora and other shootings reflects voters’ skepticism that stricter laws would “prevent these types of violent acts...”

However, when voters are asked about specific proposals, a majority of Colorado voters tend to offer support:

• 58% support nationwide ban on sale of high-capacity magazines that hold many rounds of ammunition (NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac, 8-8-12)
• 58% support federal ban on the ownership of assault weapons (PPP, 8-9-12)

See also:

The Buzz:  Tragedy in Aurora

Pew:  Views on gun lawsunchanged after Aurora shooting

Colorado Economy Recovers, But Race Still Close

The presidential race in Colorado has been close the entire year, with a small margin of error-sized advantage for Barack Obama.  The economy in Colorado has improved since January, but Obama’s margin seems impervious to the local change in conditions.

Alana Semuels of the Los Angeles Times describes the apparent contradiction of an improved economy and a still struggling president. My observation was that national conditions tend to be more determinative in voters' presidential choice than local.

"There's a sense here that the recovery is on," said Floyd Ciruli, founder of a Denver-based polling firm. "But voters, to some extent, don't base their vote on local economic conditions, but rather what direction they feel the country is going in. And people here are anxious and disgusted with Washington." (LA Times, September 12, 2012)

See Los Angeles Times – In Colorado, economy rebounds, but not support for Obama

Obama Moves Ahead

New polls appear to show Barack Obama receiving a convention bounce of two to four points based on Bill Clinton’s nominating speech and due to a large audience for his acceptance speech.

Mitt Romney pulled even as the Democratic convention began (although, there was a debate among analysts if the bounce was a convention effect or outside influence).  But, Obama has been up a couple of points throughout the summer, and now appears to have reestablished that dominance. Unfortunately for Romney, neither the selection of Paul Ryan nor the Republican convention changed the game.

In spite of the fact there are only a handful of undecided voters, Colorado can now expect a swarm of visits from the candidates and their surrogates and a major build-up for the October 3rd debate.

Also see Gallup Poll: Obama gets three-percent convention bounce