Debates, the Next Major Event

If it’s still close on Oct. 3, the presidential debates will become the hyper events that frame the final month and push the handful of still undecided voters to their final decisions.  Denver and DU will be the site of the first debate with its attendant media scrum.

Domestic policy will be the topic and mostly retired Jim Lehrer of PBS, the moderator.

Like conventions, debates have seldom decided elections, but in a close race, they can lend an edge. If Barack Obama’s post-convention bounce holds, Mitt Romney will be hoping for a breakthrough.  We can expect a total war.  Romney and Ryan are already practicing.

Of course, there is always the possibility of a major stumble, but more commonly, debates just reinforce established impressions.

Private Schools Rated Much Higher Than Public System

With confidence in the public school system at an all-time low (see my blog of June 26, 2012), Americans now rate private, including independent and parochial, schools much higher at providing children a good education.  Even parents of children in K-12 education, most of whom (83%) are in the public system, say private schools are of higher quality (see Gallup poll of August 29, 2012).

Independent private schools and parochial and church-related schools receive the highest performance ratings from not only Americans overall, but parents of public school children, Republicans and even Democrats.

Democrats were a little more supportive in their affection for the public system, which generally could garner barely a third of the public offering a positive rating for performance.

Charter schools, a relatively new concept and not operating in every school district, receive support from 60 percent of the public and parents.

Advocates of reform of the public school system are behind public opinion, which has already judged the public school system as inadequate and underperforming available alternatives.

• Confidence in public schools collapsed in last fifty years from 58% to 29% (Gallup, June 20, 2012)
• 53% of public dissatisfied with “quality of education students receive in K-12 in the U.S. today” (Gallup, August 29, 2012)

Obama Has 3-Point Colorado Lead in New Poll

The latest automated PPP poll has Barack Obama ahead by three points as of September 2, or 49 percent to 46 percent.  It continues the trend of the last month of Colorado polls.  Obama has been ahead in all but two and one was a tie.  All the previously reported statistics show themselves to be continuing in the latest poll.

If Obama Wins, Why?

With the Democratic Convention over, the questions begin as to who will win and why.  The following is a start in the conversation.

If President Obama wins re-election, why?

1.  For a variety of reasons, incumbent presidents have an advantage – universal name identification, and policy and public relations resources of the White House.  And, most importantly, voter inertia; i.e., changing horses in middle of stream, etc. aphorisms that especially appeal to more conservative voters.

2.  The economy is bad, but comparisons with the economy in previous presidential re-elections show conditions place Obama in a better position than Carter and Bush I, but behind Reagan, Clinton and Bush II; that is bad, but maybe not bad enough.  Plus, Obama says, and the public agrees, that much of the problem was inherited.

3.  The core Democratic constituencies have grown a bit to make up for some loss of enthusiasm.  And, African-Americans, Hispanics, young voters and single women have been appealed to with interest group and identity politics.  Polls show they are providing expected margins, especially in swing states.

4.  One year ago, the Obama team realized they were going to lose if they didn’t shift the conversation from what Obama has accomplished to what the Republicans can’t and won’t let get done.  Hence, the yearlong offensive on taxes and income inequality; i.e., the embattled middle class, “trickle-down economics,” etc.

5.  Part of that reframing was the anticipation Romney would be the nominee and business acumen his major strength.  His major weakness is his corporate wealth.  The Obama campaign has portrayed him as an out-of-touch rich guy.

6.  Obama wins both favorability and empathy polls over Mitt Romney by 20 or more points.  It helps blunt Obama’s competence deficiency, especially on the economy.

7.  Obama’s campaign advanced presidential political techniques in the 2008 race.  They tuned them up again to make up for an enthusiasm gap and parity in fundraising (last time they outspent John McCain substantially).

Obama Has Youth Vote, But Do They Care?

Barack Obama has nearly moved to Colorado college campuses in an effort to motivate the country’s younger voters.  He’s winning them two-to-one, but they may not vote or may vote for alternatives.

He drew a huge crowd at Fort Collins’ CSU campus during the Republican Convention and Sunday at Boulder, but he still faces a challenge from young voters who just joined the voter role and have mostly experienced the disappointment of a terrible job market and not the hope and change campaign of four years ago.

Two recent polls affirm that Obama has the youth vote by two-to-one in Colorado.  A September 3 automated PPP poll shows Obama beating Mitt Romney by 20 points among voters aged 18 to 29 years old (keep in mind the 18 to 21 year-old voters will be casting their first vote).  The live interviews in the New York Times/CBS/Quinnipiac August poll, using a broader age category of 18 to 49 years old, showed an 11-point Obama advantage among the youngest category.  In the PPP poll, young voters also were the most undecided.

Young voters are also more susceptible to third party candidates than older voters.  When offered the choice of former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, 7 percent of voters under 30 years old selected him in the PPP survey.  Three percent of young voters, the largest percentage among their age group, offered in the New York Times/CBS/Quinnipiac poll said “other candidate.”

Note:  For all of Obama’s effort with the young, he is losing seniors by about 15 points in Colorado, which is one reason the campaign is so interested in using Paul Ryan’s Medicare position as a wedge issue.

National polls agree Obama has the youth vote.

• NBC/Wall Street Journal (8-23-12):  Obama – voters under 35 years old: 52% to 41%; Romney – seniors: 49% to 41%
• Los Angeles Times (8-19-12):  Obama – voters 18 to 29 years old: 52% to 38%; Romney – seniors: 51% to 41%

Also see:  FCN – Diners serve up politics in swing state

National Race Deadlocked – Obama 46% vs. Romney 46%

The national race for the White House deadlocked as of September 1 in the national polling average maintained by Real Clear Politics at Barack Obama 46 percent vs. Mitt Romney 46 percent.

The race has been within three points all summer, with an Obama advantage.

Romney was able to close the gap, but not much more with his convention.  Obama now hopes to restore his two-point advantage as the final sprint begins.

The weak Romney bounce was mostly a product of a non-charismatic candidate and only a handful of people still uncommitted and available to react.

Deficit and Economy are Obama’s Weakest Positions

As the Democratic National Convention begins, the latest Gallup report reaffirms President Obama’s weakness on the economy, but shows his strength on terrorism and relative strength in foreign affairs.

Unfortunately for Obama, the economy and deficit are top issues in the public’s minds as needing to be fixed whereas foreign affairs is back of the mind and only likely to break out in a crisis.

The Paul Ryan pick should help the Republicans put spending, debt and the deficit front and center in the campaign.  Obama only receives a net positive approval on foreign policy and terrorism, but has a 20 plus point net disapproval on jobs, the economy and the deficit.

Immigration is not a positive for the President, with some liberals, Democrats and Hispanics wanting more pro-immigration policies and many others wanting less favorable and more punitive actions.  But, in general, only 38 percent of public is satisfied with Obama on the issue.

Obama’s current rating on the economy is lower than recent presidents running for a second term.