U.S. House May Not Move Much

Most observers believe former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi will retire if the Democrats don’t retake the House.  That should help motivate some of the Republican grassroots.

Democrats have a high hill to climb to overcome their historic loss in 2010 (63 seats).  They need to pick up 25 seats, but the latest polling shows the generic test for voter intention in congressional races is dead even; i.e., no Democratic advantage.

In Democratic wins in 2006 (they retook the House) and 2008 (they padded their majority), they were ahead by about 10 points in the generic test.

Nor is there much evidence that a strong presidential race will help House candidates.  Neither Clinton in his 1996 re-election nor Bush in 2004 picked up more than a handful of seats.

Is Pelosi’s retirement imminent?

See Gallup:  Voters indicate tight race for Congress

Romney Wins, But Headlines Say No

Mitt Romney had a big night on Super Tuesday, but the headlines offered more doubt than kudos.  It is hard to see a delegate strategy by which Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich can win.  However, a scan of the Wednesday headlines suggest Romney is the candidate with all the problems. 

·         Romney wins a few rounds, but a bruising battle goes on, New York Times, 3-7-12

·         More delegates and doubts for Romney, New York Times, 3-7-12

·         Romney is showing scars from ugly battle for GOP nomination, Washington Post, 3-7-12

·         Battle in Ohio reinforces GOP divide, Los Angeles Times, 3-7-12

·         Romney ekes out Ohio win, Denver Post, 3-7-12

Super Tuesday Big Boost for Romney

Mitt Romney accomplished what he needed to on the biggest primary and caucus night of the nomination season.  With more than 400 delegates at stake, Romney won over half, or more than two-to-one over the field.

Most importantly, he battled back in Ohio as he did in Michigan and checked Rick Santorum’s early lead.

Equally significant, Romney came in second in the major states he didn’t win – Georgia, Tennessee and Oklahoma – affirming he is an acceptable second even where his opponents dominated.

The delegate math is becoming inexorable.  Romney now has 55 percent of the selected delegates and he is a third of the way to the 1,144 he needs for nomination.

Santorum and Newt Gingrich have no plausible theory to win the nomination without completely changing the trends begun in Iowa on January 3 and continuing through last night.  While the two of them may stay in this race, by the current math, Romney should have the nomination by the end of May.

Although Romney hits a bad patch in the remaining events in March, he breaks into some good fertile territory with large states and winner-takes-all events in April and May.

·         Romney 55% of decided delegates

·         Romney 35% of total for nomination

·         End of May, 1,956 delegates voted upon, with many of them “winner-takes-all”

Romney is Back – Again

After Mitt Romney’s Arizona and Michigan primary wins, he took back over first place in national polls of Republican Party identifiers.  Romney last moved ahead shortly after his Florida win, but quickly lost it when Rick Santorum hit his trifecta on February 7, with wins in Minnesota, Missouri and the major upset in Colorado.  This will be Romney’s fourth time on top since last November, a volatile race.  A rush of events in March began in the Washington state caucus, which Romney won on March 2.

Santorum now appears to be Romney’s chief rival, if still under-funded.  Newt Gingrich has been relegated to a weak third place, and only appears to have a chance in his home state of Georgia in today’s ten-state Super Tuesday contest.

Oil Prices are Obama’s Problem

Oil price increases are a danger to President Obama.  Last year’s mid-year economic slowdown was, at least partially, caused by the run-up in gas prices, and it could happen again as average prices approach $4.00 per gallon ($3.65 on Feb. 24, 2012).  A mid-summer economic slowdown could reverse the President’s recent climb in approval rating and endanger his re-election. 

But gas prices themselves can move polls away from those deemed responsible and toward those out of office.  The last major spike in the summer of 2008 ($4.10) caused Democrats, who had stopped offshore drilling, to rethink their position.  The Colorado Senate race between frontrunner Democrat Mark Udall and Republican Bob Schaffer tightened for one of the few times during the campaign.

Finally, Obama is vulnerable on policy grounds.  Democrats’ energy policy for the first four years of the Administration focused more on greenhouse gases than supplies.  That policy, dominated by cap and trade legislation, did not make it out of Congress.  Grants, loans and tax breaks for green energy have had little impact on energy use thus far.

Obama’s most high-profile energy decision in 2011 was delaying the Keystone Pipeline from Canada to Texas.  The public opposes Obama’s decision.

About two-thirds (62%) of the public have heard about the Keystone Pipeline, and among them 66 percent believe it should be approved.

The administration is playing defense, worried about the economy, voters’ immediate reaction and their policy vulnerabilities.  This is likely to be an issue that gets hotter with the summer driving season.

See Pew:  Auto bailout now backed, stimulus divisive

Pueblo's Super Tuesday Caucus

Although the Colorado Democratic caucus on March 6 will be ignored with the Republican presidential candidates battling in 10 other states, Pueblo County Democrats will start a season of contests for two county commissioner positions and district attorney.

The biggest surprise is incumbent District Attorney Bill Thiebaut’s challenge from County Commissioner Jeff Chostner.  Thiebaut so dominated the Pueblo Democratic Party four years ago, he pushed out then incumbent Gus Sandstrom, who could not get enough delegates to even get on the ballot.  Now he is playing defense for alleged ineffective prosecutions and wasted efforts against a Colorado Springs water project.

The races for county commissioner are a part of Pueblo Democrats full employment.  Incumbent County Commissioner John Cordova will be challenged by well-known former City Council Ray Aguilera.  The open county commissioner seat has four Democrats competing, a Pueblo Democrat jobs program.

In both cases, Republicans who seldom win countywide in Pueblo are looking for opportunities.

See Pueblo Chieftain:  Democrats heading for county showdown

Americans Will Support Response to Iranian Aggression

Americans are war weary.  They are glad to be out of Iraq, which they call a mistake, and support the Afghanistan withdrawal.  But, if Iran takes a hostile act against America or its vital interests, Americans will support a strike against it.

Iran is mentioned most frequently as American’s “greatest enemy.”

Gallup reports Iran also has an 87 percent unfavorable rating, the bottom of a list of countries that Canada, Australia and Great Britain lead and Iran and North Korea anchor.

If Iran goes nuclear, attacks Israel or closes the Strait of Hormuz, Americans will support a counterstrike.

If Israel attacks Iran, Americans’ response will likely depend on the context.  Israel has the advantage of being favorably thought of by 71 percent of Americans, but they will need a strong justification.

Iran represents a danger to the administration.  Americans are worried about it.  Pew reports people are closely divided on Obama’s handling of Iran.  Forty-eight percent approve and 41 percent disapprove.  Presidential elections and Iran have had a bad history, witnessing Jimmy Carter’s long unsuccessful effort to extract the hostages in 1980.

See:

Gallup:  Americans still rate Iran top U.S. enemy

Pew:  Obama: Weak job ratings, but positive personal image