New Dates for Colorado 2012 Politics

The Colorado primary election for state and federal (not presidential delegates) candidates has been moved to June 26 in 2012 from its date of the 2^nd Tuesday in August, which held for more than two decades.

Obama Losing Colorado Unaffiliated Voters

President Barack Obama has a 39 percent approval rating in Colorado.  He loses the self-described independent voter – 41 percent approval to 46 percent disapproval.

Obama receives near universal Republican disapproval (93%), but holds the approval of three-quarters of Democrats (75%).  Fifteen percent of Democrats don’t approve of his job performance.

The Ciruli Associates poll was conducted with 500 registered voters who voted in the 2008 presidential election or are newly registered.  The poll was sponsored by the Buzz, Floyd Ciruli’s blog site.  It was conducted December 1 to 6, 2011, and has a margin of error plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Is Mark Udall Safe for 2014 Re-election?

The Public Policy Polling (PPP) robo poll published December 8 claims U.S. Senator Mark Udall “would win handily” over a couple of Republicans they tested him against.  But, a closer examination indicates Udall is highly vulnerable and could be headed for a very tough re-election, especially against Republican Congressman Mike Coffman. Even though 57 percent of voters couldn’t rate Coffman’s job approval in a head-to-head, he held Udall to below 50 percent (48% Udall to 34% Coffman), and Udall’s own job approval was only 41 percent, with more than one-quarter of the population having no opinion (28%) and nearly one-third (31%) disapproving of his performance.

Democrats have also given Coffman a reason to run for the Senate. His newly re-districted 6th congressional seat is highly competitive and Coffman will be motivated to step up.

Public Policy Polling: Almost Three Years out Udall in Good Shape for CO-Sen.

Obama and Gingrich Have High Negatives

In a new Ciruli Associates poll publicized in Floyd Ciruli’s blog site, The Buzz, Newt Gingrich has an unfavorable rating nearly equal to President Obama among all Colorado voters.

Mitt Romney is only 4 percentage points behind the President’s favorability, but Gingrich is 11 points back in favorability and most importantly he has a 45 percent negative rating (Obama has a high 49 percent).

Examining recent polls, reinforces the likelihood that the 2012 election will force an electorate to pick between two alternatives large pluralities of voters are unhappy with. This is a formula for a very volatile and grumpy electorate looking for some relief – expect more surprises.

The Ciruli Associates poll was conducted with 500 registered voters who voted in the 2008 presidential election or are newly registered. The poll was sponsored by The Buzz, Floyd Ciruli’s blog site. It was conducted December 1 to 6, 2011, and has a margin of error plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Hickenlooper – The Nonpartisan Governor

Governor John Hickenlooper has a nonpartisan image, and it is reflected in voters’ evaluation of his job performance.  In a new Ciruli Associates poll, 59 percent of Colorado voters approve of Hickenlooper’s job at the end of his first year.

Hickenlooper’s performance is approved by 79 percent of Democrats,

62 percent of independents and a surprising 44 percent of Republicans, nearly two-to-one over his Republican disapproval (27%).

Hickenlooper’s Job Approval and Partisanship

The Ciruli Associates poll was conducted with 500 registered voters who voted in the 2008 presidential election or are newly registered.  The poll was sponsored by The Buzz, Floyd Ciruli’s blog site.  It was conducted December 1 to 6, 2011, and has a margin of error plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

See Denver Post staff writer Tim Hoover’s blog:  Poll:  Hickenlooper’s job approval 59%

Aurora in the New York Times

Aurora made the New York Times last week in a story that highlighted its new economic ambition and good luck capturing a congressional seat.

Reporter Kirk Johnson interviewed newly elected Mayor Steve Hogan and recorded some great quotations on the city’s struggle for an identity. 

“Aurora is a place to stop for gas on your way to somewhere else.”

“Someday we’re going to be bigger than Denver. We have the land, we have the water, we have the opportunities.”

The new congressional district will get considerable coverage in the 2012 election due to its reconfiguration as a swing district. And, Arapahoe County will likely be a battleground as President Obama attempts to carry the state.

“Arapahoe County, stretching east from here out onto the prairie, was, like most Denver suburbs, long safely Republican. But the county supported President Obama in 2008 and then went for a Democrat again in 2010 in the governor’s race, in embracing Denver’s mayor — now governor — John W. Hickenlooper. Whether two elections make for pattern or aberration is the new calculus.

‘To the extent we have visitors back East wanting to know what’s going on in Colorado politics, I will be sending them to Aurora and Arapahoe,’ said Floyd Ciruli, a political analyst and pollster.

Mr. Ciruli said he thought the new Sixth Congressional District centered on Aurora would probably be competitive for a Democrat, but that in contrast to Colorado’s largest city, Denver (strongly Democratic) and second-largest, Colorado Springs, (strongly Republican), Aurora in third place is quirky and unpredictable.”

See NY Times article:  Trying to shine in the shadow of a neighbor

Romney Ahead With Colorado Republicans and All Voters

In a new Ciruli Associates poll publicized in Floyd Ciruli’s blog site, The Buzz, Mitt Romney has the highest favorability among Colorado Republicans, with Newt Gingrich in a close second.  Ron Paul had barely one-third of Republicans stating a favorable impression.

The Ciruli Associates poll was conducted with 500 registered voters who voted in the 2008 presidential election or are newly registered.  The poll was sponsored by The Buzz, Floyd Ciruli’s blog site.  It was conducted December 1 to 6, 2011, and has a margin of error plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.