Obama Approval 39%

President Barack Obama’s job performance approval in Colorado is 39 percent, well below the level for re-election.  Nationally, Obama’s approval has been below 50 percent throughout 2011, and is now 45 percent in both the Gallup weekly average and in Real Clear Politics’ average (December 13).  In the just released Ciruli Associates poll, 53 percent of voters disapprove of Obama, or a 14 point negative spread between his positive and negative.

The Ciruli Associates poll was conducted with 500 registered voters who voted in the 2008 presidential election or are newly registered.  The poll was sponsored by The Buzz, Floyd Ciruli’s blog site.  It was conducted December 1 to 6, 2011, and has a margin of error plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

In a just released Public Policy Polling robo poll, Obama received 45 percent approval and 50 percent disapproval, with a 5 percent negative spread.

Examining areas of the state, Obama’s poor rating was mostly uniform across the state, except for the Western Slope of Colorado where his approval rating was at freezing level – 32 percent.

Hickenlooper Remains Popular

After nearly a year in office, Governor John Hickenlooper’s job performance is above 50 percent.  A recent Ciruli Associates poll gives him 59 percent approval, which is above a poll just completed by Public Policy Polling (PPP), a North Carolina Democratic-oriented robo poll.

The Ciruli Associates poll was conducted with 500 registered voters who voted in the 2008 presidential election or are newly registered.  The poll was sponsored by The Buzz, Floyd Ciruli’s blog site.  It was conducted December 1 to 6, 2011, and has a margin of error plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Hickenlooper’s approval rating is higher than Governor Jerry Brown of California, who has a 47 percent approval and a surprisingly high 17 percent who claim no opinion.  California polling expert Mark DiCamillo points out that while Brown’s approval is low for a first-term California governor, these are difficult times for politicians.

PPP claims Hickenlooper’s 53 percent with a very low negative rating is very good for governors in today’s political environment.  Only seven governors had higher ratings, including Haley Barbour of Mississippi, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Brian Schweitzer of Montana.

See articles:

Sacramento Bee:  Poll shows Brown still rates high, but unpopular cuts loom

San Francisco Chronicle:  Jerry Brown’s rating may be better than it looks

Los Angeles Times:  Jerry Brown’s approval rating steady, new poll finds

Denver Post:  Colorado’s John Hickenlooper second-most-popular governor, poll says

Merkel vs. Bernanke

Sixty-six years after the total destruction of the German Reich, it is Germany and its chancellor that are directing the future of the European experiment.  And that means Angela Merkel and her center-right government has more influence over the next few months of the American economy’s recovery than Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke.  And, by extension, that means Ms. Merkel may decide the fate of President Obama’s re-election.  For if the American recovery stalls, or voters come to believe the economic future is shaky due to European turmoil, Obama will continue to struggle with voter distrust of his economic leadership.

Watching the European effort to stave off the financial crisis has many potent messages for Americans.  Fiscal irresponsibility is the greatest threat to a nation’s and people’s sovereignty.  Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland are about to lose their sovereign control over their budgets, their debt and their taxes to Brussels.

Fiscal irresponsibility or the inability to go into the financial marketplace and conduct business because a judgment has been made that our ability or willingness to repay is poor is the greatest threat to American sovereignty, or the sovereignty of a state, such as California or even Colorado. 

“When Things Fall Apart, the Center Can’t Hold”

A paraphrase of a line from W.B. Yeats 1920 poem of the chaos of the post war period.  From the Mid-East to Europe to America, it is clear the old forms are failing and its unclear what is new is coming into being.

A new Internet-based political movement, Americans Elect (http://www.americanselect.org/), is building a national footprint to have a presidential candidate on the ballot in nearly every state.

The candidate will be nominated online, and will need to either have a national reputation or be able to self-finance a campaign.

Although no third-party candidate has been even close to winning the presidency, third-party candidates regularly can make a difference in the outcome of a race.  Ralph Nader’s votes in Florida in 2000 gave the state to G.W. Bush instead of Al Gore.  Ross Perot clearly affected many states in 1992, including shifting Colorado to Bill Clinton instead of the first President Bush. 

If Ron Paul or Donald Trump was nominated, the Republican nominee could be hurt, and Mike Bloomberg could shift Oregon or Washington to the Republicans.

Gingrich Takes Over Lead as Cain’s Campaign Collapses

On December 3, Herman Cain’s campaign finally collapsed from the weight of multiple controversies and missteps.

The campaign had been on life support since late October when charges of harassment were aired.  The end came quickly after an Atlanta woman said she and Cain had a 13-year affair.

The latest rising force in the Republican nomination fight is former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich.  He is inheriting the shifting Cain supporters and winning new adherents from his debate performance.

Although he is surging ahead of Mitt Romney, both nationally and in Iowa polls, he does not run as well Romney against President Obama.

“9News Political Analyst Floyd Ciruli says Gingrich will likely reap the most benefits.

‘The main dynamic that’s going to change here is that it could help the anti-Mitt Romney vote,’ said Ciruli.

Ciruli adds that another beneficiary might be President Barack Obama.

‘Probably what Obama is watching most closely is will Mitt Romney win this race:  The more candidates in this race, the better it was for Mitt Romney,’ said Ciruli.  ‘I think Obama fears Romney the most.’”

See 9News:

Floyd Ciruli talks about latest Cain campaign developments

Cain suspends campaign shifting GOP race

Congressional Districts’ Elections Will Be 2012 Action

The shake-up of Colorado’s state legislative and congressional district boundaries by commissioners and judges have created the main political action in 2012 election. 

From a 4 to 7 Republican split, Judge Hyatt created a possible Democratic 5 to 7 configuration.  Given the lack of major statewide races, who wins the newly redistricted 3^rd CD and 6^th CD will be the news.

See articles:

Pueblo Chieftain:  Supreme Court upholds Dems’ redistricting map

Denver Post:  Andrew Romanoff won’t challenge Rep. Mike Coffman in newly competitive Colorado 6^th Congressional District

9News:  Democrats win Colorado redistricting battle

PAPOR Conference

The annual conference of the Pacific Chapter of the American Association of Public Opinion will be held this week in San Francisco.  The pollsters from western states regularly come together to present their analyses and predictions for the next election.

History of Western States Roundtable

•         PAPOR initiates concept of western states as area of study

•         Shortly after California gubernatorial recall, roundtable begins

•         Mountain West becomes Democratic battleground in 2004

•         Alaska, Idaho, Utah and Wyoming anchor the most conservative states.  California, Oregon and Washington are regularly on the left.

•         Colorado begins a trend to battleground status, joined by Arizona, Montana, Nevada and New Mexico

Major Themes of 2012

•         Will the West save Obama’s presidency?

•         Will the Tea Party movement rule over Western Republican nominations?  Will they harm Republicans in general elections?

•         Does Occupy Wall Street help or hurt the Democratic Party candidates?

•         Is there political space for a presidential third party?

•         When will the Hispanic vote catch up with Hispanic demographics?

•         Will the 2012 election affect California’s political gridlock and economic woes?

•         Is gay rights the only Western social issue with impact?  Marijuana?  Illegal immigration?

•         Has social media evolved sufficiently to be a major factor in western states’ elections?