Trilogy on Trump’s Declining Approval

Lisa Benson - Tribune Content Agency

After a stronger start in January 2025 than in his first term (January 2017), Donald Trump’s presidential approval has dropped deep into negative territory, flashing danger signs for Trump and Republicans facing 2026 mid-term elections. Since Republican defeats in the November 4 election, Trump is increasingly seen as a lame duck.

A trilogy of Ciruli posts describes Trump’s most recent descent and the impact it may have on the mid-term elections:

• Will Democrats Win the House?
• Speaker Johnson Ties House to Trump
• Trump’s Mandate “Enough”

As the Trump first year ends, with his approval remaining in record negative territory of minus 10 percent in the RCP site. The polling aggregator Fifty Plus One has him down 16 points. His economic rating is a negative 15 points (RCP). The low rating accompanying the decline in consumer confidence, steady but continued inflation.

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Trump Approval Collapses and Nov. 4 Turns Blue Nov 20, 2025

Trump’s Mandate 'Enough'

President Donald Trump signs executive orders in the Oval Office on Monday, including one to end DEI programs. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

President Trump came into office claiming his modest victory was a mandate for aggressive presidential action on most anything he said on the campaign trail. With a blizzard of executive orders (213) and other presidential actions (budget shifts, domestic troop movements), Trump has flooded the news cycle and overwhelmed much of the opposition. Finally, the public is saying enough.

The polling data shows Trump’s November collapse, which began in later October (negative 8 points Real Clear Politics), became a rout by Thanksgiving (down 13 points). Polling site Fifty Plus One has Trump down 17 points. The Decision Desk HQ has him down 14 points (Reported in Hill).

The following chart shows the November 2024 election, which Trump won with 1.5 percent, and approval and disapproval polling showing on November 4, 2025 election day, he was down 11 points and on November 27 he was in negative territory by 13 and 17 points. His approval has declined 8 to 10 points since his 2024 election. Voters have had enough.

	November 5 2024 Election	November 4 2025 Polling (RTC)	November 27 2025 Polling (RTC)	November 27 2025 Polling (FPO)
Trump	49.8%	43%	43%	40%
Harris	48.3%	54%	56%	57%
Difference	-1.5	-11	-13	-17

Source: Ciruli Associates 2025

November 4 provided hard evidence of voters’ anti-Trump mood to accompany his negative polling (soft evidence), highlighting his political problem with the economy and especially inflation.

RELATED:
Trump Approval Collapses and Nov. 4 Turns Blue November 20, 2025

Speaker Johnson Ties House to Trump

House Speaker Mike Johnson of La., points to President Donald Trump after he signed his signature bill of tax breaks and spending cuts at the White House, Friday, July 4, 2025, in Washington, surrounded by members of Congress. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

The result this November 4 was similar to President Trump’s 2018 election when Republicans lost 41 seats. Trump was not on the ballot but his poor performance rating was down 13 points. This was an anti-Trump vote. Many of the groups that moved toward him in the 2024 Biden/Harris election shifted to Democratic candidates in high profile races. Also, the anti-Trump mood affected non-partisan races and initiatives. It was the prime mover in California’s Proposition 50’s sweep of the state. In Colorado, it helped turn out left-leaning voters who supported liberal and labor-endorsed city council and school board candidates.

Speaker Johnson’s weak position in terms of his majority and his ascension’s dependence on Trump reinforces his inability to get any distance from the President. He could be headed for a short, humiliating speakership.

He has diminished his office and the institution.

• Kept the House out of session during a record-long government shutdown and refused to swear in the newly elected Congresswoman from Arizona, as part of the effort to derail the Epstein files’ release (he lost the discharge petition 427 to 1).
• Ignores the repeated and systematic shift of spending authority from the House and its committees to Trump and the executive branch. In fact, cheered the Supreme Court to grant Trump power to levy tariffs without congressional approval.
• Called No Kings rally attendees Marxists and Hate-America participants, mimicking Trump’s rhetoric.
• Represents Bossier City, Louisiana, noted for its casinos and a high poverty rate. Shows little interest in constituents’ food insecurity or lack of health care.

Large Mid-Term Election Losses by Presidents Since 1960

Year	President	Party	Loss	Comment
1962	LBJ	D	47	Vietnam/Civil Rights
1974	Ford	R	48	Watergate/Pardon
1994	Clinton	D	54	Lost House/Health Care
2006	Bush	R	32	2nd Mid-Term/Iraq
2010	Obama	D	63	Health Care/Tea Party
2018	Trump	R	41	Repeal Obama Care

Source: Ciruli Associates 2025

Mid-term elections are usually considered a referendum on the administration’s performance. This will be Trump’s second mid-term, within an unusual second term. Notice W. Bush lost 32 seats in his second mid-term. Since the 1960s there have been 5 losses of more than 40 seats. Does the President Trump partnership and Speaker Johnson’s leadership suggest a landslide?

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Will Democrats Win the House?

U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) departs the House floor, following the vote of the U.S. House of Representatives, which passed the bill seeking to release files related to the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., November 18, 2025
Photo: REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

Since November 4 election results combined with President Trump’s abysmal polling numbers and the House’s Epstein and other controversies, the viewpoint is growing among political observers and office holders that Democrats will win the House of Representatives. It may not be by the 2018 landslide of 41 seats, but it’s very likely to be by at least 20 seats.

Some observations by the pundit class:

• Trump is now at a low for his second term and similar to his 2018 November debacle. Fifty Plus One has Trump down 17 points (40% approval). Even Republican-oriented RCP has Trump out by 13 points (43% approval). (In late October 2018, he had 41% approval in Gallup, 39% in CNN).
• To win against the rigidity of the congressional field with only about 60 competitive seats out of 435, and the President’s ongoing effort to gain advantage with redistricting and voter suppression, Democrats will need to be ahead by at least 8 points. Fortunately for them, that was about the point spread their candidates beat Kamala Harris’s 2024 vote in New Jersey and Virginia.
• Democrats are currently ahead by 5 points in the RCP generic ballot, a reversal of the 3 point lead Republicans held during the first 7 months of the President’s second term.
• Pundits, of course, try to model the election and 2026 looks more like the close 2020 election Biden won than the 2024 election Trump won. Core Democratic groups appear to be solidifying against Trump’s aggressive immigration enforcement and his tariffs as an economic boom.
• Finally, it’s clear increasing numbers of Republicans in more competitive seats or leaders responsible for maintaining majorities realize that showing some independence from Trump is becoming politically necessary.

Trump is becoming a lame duck earlier than expected.

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Will Republicans Lose The House? February 6, 2025