Trump’s Approval Down in July

Donald Trump and Jeffrey Epstein at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, in 1997. Photograph: Davidoff Studios Photography/Getty Images

The Buzz’s National Dashboard has tracked President Trump’s approval since his Inauguration, January 20. His rating started positive but went negative on March 14 in the RCP average. After the Liberation Day tariff announcement, the gap between his positive and negative performance increased 7 points by late April. President Trump then recovered and was only 3 points down at the end of May. But during June and July, the gap doubled from 3 points to 6. And most recent polls have him in negative territory by 10 or more points. (Gallup 37% approve/59% disapprove/22% gap)

His recent poor rating appears primarily caused by the public’s negative reviews of his performance on inflation, deportation, and Jeffrey Epstein. Americans are still very concerned about inflation. Trump’s economic conduct is rated a minus 13 points (RCP). Gallup reports 65 percent don’t approve of how he’s handling the budget. Deportation was positive for him through April but the news over the last six weeks has been about the violence and controversy associated with the aggressive deportation strategy. Today, more people disapprove of deportation actions than approve. Now, the Epstein scandal and associated conspiracy theories have become front page news and are damaging his approval. (Emerson poll 7-25: 51% disapprove Trump’s handling of Epstein files, 19% approve).

Johnston Pivots to Tough Love

Mayor Mike Johnston gives his second State of the City address, held this year at the Denver Center for the Performing Arts. July 21, 2025. Photo: Kevin J. Beaty/Denverite

All Denver mayors are tested. John Hickenlooper had the great recession and Michael Hancock COVID-19. Mike Johnston inherited a post-COVID, George Floyd crime wave, massive homelessness and a vacant downtown. As he passes the halfway mark of his 4-year term, he used his state of the city address to recount the progress on homelessness, crime, and downtown. But he acknowledged the shortfalls and new problems in the city budget, exacerbated by the serious federal cutbacks.

The Mayor recognized that the perception of downtown Denver as a dangerous and mostly empty space is the city’s biggest challenge, even with the reopening of a refurbished 16th Street. Most importantly, he outlined a new theme of tough love with homelessness, i.e., provide alternatives besides arrest but don’t take no for an answer.

His biggest test now is passage of the typical mayoral solution to a slow economy which has worked numerous times in the past – tee up a one billion dollar or so bond package to upgrade Denver infrastructure and provide jobs.

The debate now is about what’s in the proposal and, of course, will it pass?/

Colorado: We Are Truly On Our Own

“The Trump fiscal revolution is here to stay. With the passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” and a series of Supreme Court rulings on workforce reductions, limits on federal district court injunctions, and allowing withholding of funds for various grants, the federal role in state and local finances is substantially reduced and unlikely to be reversed.”

The opening paragraph in a Denver Gazette column (July 22, 2025) that one editor described as an “important, sobering message” and another said “wise column.” It recounts a speech with Colorado’s County Commissioners in early June. My primary message was we are on our own.

The federal role in state and local finances is substantially reduced. The direction in Washington is to reverse much of LBJ’s Great Society programs, agencies, and departments (Affirmative Action, USAID, Education).

Most importantly, there is little realistic prospect the reductions will be reversed or return to pre-January 20th status. The forces of reduction, including DOGE, rescissions, and the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” are locking in spending and tax cuts with the entire federal budget constrained by a huge deficit.

READ COLUMN:
GUEST OPINION Colorado: We Are Truly On Our Own

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PAPOR - Political Change in California Sur

The annual conference of the Pacific Chapter of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (PAPOR) will be held in San Diego August 14 and 15. The two days of panels will present new research on public opinion, methods, and trends.

On August 14, a “Political Change in California Sur” panel will review the political attitudes and demographics of Orange and San Diego Counties.

I will present a comparison of Orange and San Diego counties. Each has about 3 million residents, but they have unique histories and many distinguishing characteristics. Importantly, they have different influential neighbors. Orange is south of LA, much like a sprawling suburb, and San Diego is north of Mexico, with one dominant municipality. Although they are separated by about 20 miles of chaparral, both counties have been in political transition in this quarter century but at different paces, reflecting their histories, cultures and demographics.

Also presenting will be Jon Gould, UCI Dean of the School of Social Ecology, Gabriela (Gaby) Gonzalez, Economic Analyst, San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center, and John Nienstedt, President and CEO of Competitive Edge Research & Communication, Inc.

PAPOR will hold its annual convention in San Diego County on August 14 to 15 at the Bahia Resort Hotel.

To get more information, view the PAPOR website: https://www.papor.org

RELATED: Political Change in California Sur July 9, 2025

The SCFD and Regionalism

The Scientific & Cultural Facilities District (SDFD) is a seven-county Denver metro tax authority with minimal government overhead and maximum fiscal benefit for residents. It is a national model of regional funding cooperation. The regional design of the authority is one of its most important features. The governing board is county based, giving local governments and the Denver suburbs a majority voice.

The funding distribution was designed to ensure cultural organizations throughout the entire region benefited. Eleven large cultural organizations and approximately 140 local organizations in 1989, the year of its startup, have evolved into 38 larger organizations and more than 240 smaller organizations in 2024. Together, they provide access to a multitude of cultural programs and facilities.

The smaller, more localized organizations are funded by their respective county governments. Counties received more than $15 million in 2024 to distribute based on their contribution to the total regional tax revenue. Nearly three-quarters of the revenue is distributed to the six counties outside of Denver. Denver city and county contributes 26 percent of the tax revenue and gets the same percentage to distribute. Beyond Denver, for example, Douglas County tax contributions and funds for distribution have grown from 2 percent in 1989 to 16 percent today.

Among the largest Denver-based organizations, a significant portion of their audiences are from outside Denver, especially among school children. These include the Denver Zoo Conservation Alliance, the Museum of Nature and Science, the Botanic Gardens, the Denver Art Museum and Denver Center for the Performing Arts. The 33 mid-sized cultural organizations are spread throughout the metro area with more than half in the Denver suburbs. Funding largely depends upon the attendance and program budgets to encourage broad public access. The largest includes the Children’s Museum, The Arvada Center, the Butterfly Pavillion, Chautauqua, Colorado Symphony, Colorado Ballet, Swallow Hill, and Parker Arts.

Ensuring regional funding, governance, and access has been one of the SCFD’s basic principles and keys to operational success and political sustainability.

CATZ Mission & Purpose

The Citizens for Arts to Zoo (CATZ) is a Colorado volunteer association in existence since 1994 whose mission is to support continuation of the Scientific and Cultural Facilities District (SCFD). CATZ is a 501(c)(4) non-profit organization and it is guided by a board of directors under a set of bylaws. CATZ files reports with the IRS and the Colorado Secretary of State.

The organization’s purpose is to assist the SCFD by funding and directing the ballot campaigns for the extension of the dedicated one-tenth of one cent sales tax helping fund cultural facilities and programs in the seven-county Denver metropolitan area.

There have been three SCFD renewal elections since its founding in 1988. In addition, CATZ provides SCFD periodic grants to recognize volunteers and leaders in the cultural community. CATZ has also operated as a funder for legislative lobbying and provides advice to the SCFD on legislative, governmental and political issues. CATZ works to maintain the basic principles that have guided the approval and sustainability of the District.

This support organization was first recommended by Rex Morgan, one of the founders of the SCFD, and Floyd Ciruli of Ciruli Associates, the general manager of the initial and subsequent campaigns. In the early 1990s, shortly after its first approval by voters, it was clear that a long-term organization would be necessary to maintain a lobbyist presence at the state capital. Because of a sunset clause in the statute, three renewal campaigns have been led by CATZ1994, 2004, and 2016, with a successful track record.

Rex Morgan

In advocating for financial support, Citizens for Arts to Zoo plays a critical role in the continued success and growth of cultural and scientific institutions in the seven-county Denver metropolitan area.

Pride in America

Fireworks at Independence Hall National Historic Park in Philadelphia.

The 4th of July was a little down this year. For all the parades, picnics and fireworks, Gallup reports record low levels of pride in being an American. Pride in being an American has dropped from above 80 percent in 2010 to 63 percent in 2020 and 58 percent today.

It’s not just Americans are less pleased with the country. International travel is off this summer lead by Canadians who claim to feel unwelcome given the nationalistic rhetoric out of Washington. Other factors are economic uncertainty and increased costs.

As America prepares for its Quarter Millennial celebration, may our pride in the nation be restored and our friends around the world feel welcome.

Political Change in California Sur

Bahia Resort Hotel

The annual conference of the Pacific Chapter of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (PAPOR) will be held in San Diego August 14 and 15. The two days of panels will present new research on public opinion, methods, and trends.

On August 14, a “Political Change in California Sur” panel will review the political attitudes and demographics of Orange and San Diego Counties. California’s pollsters will also examine the political environment and the prospects for the 2026 election.

Three noted Southern California opinion experts on the panel are:

• Jon Gould, UCI Dean of the School of Social Ecology
• John Nienstedt, President and CEO of Competitive Edge Research & Communication, Inc.
• Floyd Ciruli, President of Ciruli Associates

PAPOR will hold its annual convention in San Diego County on August 14 to 15 at the Bahia Resort Hotel.

To get more information, view the PAPOR website: https://www.papor.org

RELATED
Political Change in California Sur: PAPOR Conference June 27, 2025

Does Mamdani Change California and Colorado Politics?

U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet, left, and Attorney General Phil Weiser, both candidates for the 2026 Colorado gubernatorial election. Photo: Robert Tann/Summit Daily News

Zohran Mamdani’s come from behind to win with a socialist message, and youth energy has seized the attention of Democratic officeholders and aspirants around the country.

In California, former Vice President Kamala Harris, who is considering a run for governor, will notice that the Democratic establishment did not fare well in New York. A successful primary run may also take more than just an anti-Trump message. Super liberal Katie Porter, who was beaten in the 2024 senate primary, has been trying to reposition as a Democratic centrist. She may reconsider and go for a full anti-business progressive agenda.

In Colorado, two establishment Democrats are running in 2026 to either extend their term like Senator John Hickenlooper, or Senator Michael Bennet who switched to governor. Both are older Democratic centrists with lots of name identification but little passion in the party or among progressives. Earlier in the year, Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez demonstrated the political power of progressives, gathering 30,000 fans in Denver’s civic center. As of now, only Bennet has a high profile opponent, state Attorney General Phil Weiser. Will one of them adopt the progressive lane? Will a fight-every-day progressive get in the race for governor or senate?

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Colorado’s Vibrant Cultural Landscape Promotes Economic Development

When the economy is down and local government is trying to shore up its tax revenue, identifying what will attract visitors while pleasing local citizens is critical. Cultural programming and facilities have been a consistent winner in Colorado for Colorado economy. The state’s rural and mountain communities have an abundance of natural beauty that people love to visit and recreate in. But cultural amenities including music, film, and festivals in the mountains are also major economic generators.

The new relocated Sundance Film Festival to Boulder is expected to attract 85,000 mostly well-heeled visitors and to add $132 million to the economy. The seven-county Denver metro area cities such as Parker, Lone Tree, Thornton and dozens of others have invested in new cultural venues and received additional support from regional voters who continue to reauthorize a small sales tax for cultural facility and program operating revenue. In 2023, the Scientific and Culture Facilities District (SCFD) program funded 280 organizations that attracted 19 million visitors and produced $2.6 billion in economic activities.

Miller and Bannon: Still Pushing the Agenda

Steve Miller is Donald Trump’s deputy chief of staff and Steve Bannon directs a podcast “War Room” and a small army of MAGA true believers.

The two leading participants in today’s tumultuous environment were drafters of Trump’s first inaugural speech. After covering the 2016 election and aftermath from my perch at the University of Denver, I posted a blog about Miller and Bannon showing the speech prescient.

Little has changed except the intensity and the two, after 9 years, are still major players pushing the agenda.

Excerpt:

The White House admitted the inaugural speech was written by White House chief strategist Steve Bannon and senior advisor Stephen Miller. The two Steves are leading doctrinaires of the new administration’s direction. The inaugural speech was a textbook definition of the populist and nationalist approach Donald Trump has advocated for 18 months.

A dark, uncompromising speech that began with an attack on the Washington establishment across the board.

Read attached blog and speech analysis: New Right Authors Inaugural Speech

Market Ends Up After Volatile Quarter

President Donald Trump holds up a chart of reciprocal tariffs chart
Photo: Chip Somodevilla Getty Images

Five months into the Trump administration has been surprisingly hospitable for the key stock indexes. After two years of more than double digit gains, mid-year they were showing some final life, surging the last week of June. The Dow was up 4 points at the end of the quarter (S&P and NAZ both up 6). Given the months of volatility, most investors were thankful indexes were at least off their lows.

On April 2, when President Trump announced “Liberation Day” for his tariff strategy, markets began a sell-off that lasted a month (Dow down 10, S&P down 12). Seven days later on April 9, after the market plunge, he paused the bulk of the tariffs except China, but it took an announced China trade agreement in early May to get indexes back to the year end.

The market’s current optimism is based on the apparent lack of notable effect from tariffs, although many are about to reapply, the economic slowdown that is yet to appear, a coming tax cut from the Big Beautiful Bill, and a calmer Middle East. But expect continued volatility the next six months. There is still significant domestic and foreign political churn.

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Commissioners Crushed in Power Grab

Castle Rock Photo: John Leyba, Special to The Colorado Sun

In a special election orchestrated by Douglas County’s MAGA commissioners, voters rejected the attempt to create a home rule county.

The commissioners claimed it would allow them to be independent of, or at least challenge, state rules and regulations they didn’t like. On their list were guns and law enforcement, immigration and abortion. Opponents disputed both the motives of the commissioners and the likely effect of a yes vote. It was crushed 71 percent to 29 percent.

The election was a major political embarrassment for the commissioners, who have a long track record of disruption of regional initiatives, wild, expensive schemes with county water programs, and using the commission as a platform for MAGA culture wars rhetoric and proposals.

Huntington Beach Voters Say No to MAGA

Huntington Beach library votes serve as warning to MAGA council Photo: OC Register

Voters just told the self-described MAGA wing of the Republican Party that has total control of the Huntington Beach City Council to stop the culture war with the city library. In a summer special election, voters turned out, and by 58 percent ordered the council to get out of the library book censorship business. More than sixty percent also said don’t try to privatize the city library.

A good message for San Clemente City Council members, some of whom have a penchant toward MAGA culture war issues such as immigrants, masks, abortion and pangas. Stick to city business.