We Are On Our Own

At the summer conference of Colorado’s County Commissioners, I gave a presentation on the future of federal funding for local government. The County Commissioners are one of the few groups of elected officials in Colorado that the Republican Party dominates due to the prominence of many smaller and rural counties along with a few larger Republican counties, including Douglas, El Paso, Mesa and Weld.

In general, they support President Trump’s effort to trim the budget and believe there is considerable waste, fraud, and abuse in government programs. However, they, along with their fellow Democratic commissioners, realize the reduction in funding in 2025 and beyond is significant. Since they are responsible for social welfare payments in their jurisdictions as well as some transportation and criminal justice activities, they know constituents will be affected.

These are my conclusions regarding the hit to local funding over the next two years and beyond:

• Colorado’s growth and economy was already in a post-pandemic slowdown. The federal reductions will accelerate it. I labeled this the Era of Austerity.
• The federal role in state and local finances is being reduced significantly.
• There is little realistic prospect the reductions will be reversed returning to pre-Trump 2.0 days. The forces of reduction, DOGE, rescissions, and the “One Big Beautiful Bill” will lock in spending and tax cuts confined by a huge deficit (hence the title We Are On Our Own).
• The possible change of control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2026 will not reverse the direction. Most likely, any new funding bill in the House would not carry the Republican-controlled Senate or escape a presidential veto.

Commissioners were encouraged to identifying their current and prospective revenue sources and protect and grow them.

Like the COVID years, resilience and adaptability will be the prevailing principles in the new Era of Austerity.

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