Trump, Tariffs, and the Crash

President Donald Trump holds up a chart of reciprocal tariffs chart
Photo: Chip Somodevilla Getty Images

It took Joe Biden until August of 2021, a full 7 months into his term, to lose his approval majority. After the Afghanistan withdrawal, he never came even close to closing the negative gap between the public disapproval and approval. He had failed on his claimed expertise, managing foreign policy.

Donald Trump first crossed into negative approval territory on March 14. It followed the wild first 53 days into the Administration, but April 2 “Liberation Day” is likely to be more like Biden’s chaos and pain than a celebration. Approval of his economic performance is a negative 10 points. If the public concludes Trump is not good for the economy, his claimed area of expertise, he and his party will be in serious political jeopardy.

After April 2, his approval went from 1 point down to 4 in a matter of days, while all the major market indexes passed from correction territory (down 10% from their peak) to at or near bear markets (down 20%). Trump was president in the last market crash of March 2020 as business activity began closing due to the pandemic. The economy then went into a brief recession. The odds of a slowdown in economic growth and recession have grown dramatically in the last week, in spite of the tariff pause.

The National Dashboard is a Buzz platform showing the state of public opinion for the presidential approval. It tracks key indicators on the economy, direction of the country, and competition for the U.S. House of Representatives. It primarily uses RealClearPolitics (RCP) but makes comparisons to Gallup and other polls, as reported in Opinion Today.

RELATED:
Trump Starts at Record Low Feb 13, 2017
Trump Approval Weak, But Better on Economy Than Foreign Policy Feb 22, 2017

Signal Gate: What We Learned

2017 (left) and 2025 (right)
Photos: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters and Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

Five observations about Trump’s 2025 Administration were highlighted by the media and others from Signal Gate. First, although there may be mostly new players in the Trump Oval office, the show is still as chaotic and amateurish as 2017.

• Stephen Miller as the chief loyalist has the final word on Trump think – “The President was clear: green light” was his final comment.
• Vance will cross Trump to push his view. In this case, no benefits for Europe. “I just hate bailing out Europe again.”
• Contrast and criticism of Biden is important for policy and messaging. “Biden failed, Biden cratered.”
• If mistakes are made, attack the media: Goldberg gets Woodward and Bernstein award.

Signal Gate will make a contribution to President Trump’s approval about 70 days into the new Administration. As of April 1, he is down two points in approval since the inauguration; 2 points, year to date, in the Dow; 5 points in the S & P, and 10 points in the NAZ. Republicans’ most serious challenge today is their slim House majority. Pulling the Elise Stefanik nomination as UN Ambassador was a “tell” that Trump and Speaker Johnson are concerned. The Wisconsin Democratic win and Republican underperformance in Florida confirm their concern.

NISP Is on the Move

Glade Rendering, Northern Water

After more than 20 years, the Northern Integrated Supply Project (NISP) has cleared a final litigation hurdle and can accelerate already-begun construction.

In 2005, Ciruli Associates conducted the first of several opinion surveys in the NISP service area of Larimer, northern Boulder, Weld, and Morgan counties. The public was highly supportive of the project and its goals of securing water for the municipalities and other providers.

Today, the project is estimated to cost $2 billion, paid for by water users. In 2005, the estimated cost was less than half a billion dollars. The inflation cost of construction delay, environmental studies, mitigation, and finally litigation more than tripled the budget.

To the extent project delays are reduced, the federal government would be doing a great service for citizens in arid regions. But for now, congratulations to the many water leaders and managers that brought this project to this successful point. All of Colorado can celebrate as another water project joins the list of successful projects completed in the 21st century.

RELATED:
Congratulations to Northern Water Dec 20, 2022
Protecting Colorado’s Water Jan 6, 2022

How Low Can Trump Go?

From left, U.S. National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images/File

Donald Trump has never been a popular president. At the beginning of his first term, he had a record low approval after a “poorly rated” transition (Ciruli blog, 2-13-17). He started with a 40 percent approval and 45 disapproval which after three weeks became 50 percent (RTC average). Gallup pointed out Trump was the first president since approval polling began (1953, Eisenhower) for start-up approval to be below 50 percent.

His four-year average approval, as recorded by Gallup, was 41 percent with 55 percent disapproval. His approval was in a steady and narrow range with a low ceiling (49%) and a solid 35% floor. On his exit from the White House in 2021, he was at the floor in terms of public approbation.(Ciruli blog,1-20-21)

After a more than a two-month fight against the transition of power culminating in the January 6 riot at the US Capitol, Trump’s approval rating from numerous national polls was in the 30’s:

• Gallup – Trump approval 34%
• RCP – Trump approval 39%, disapproval 57%
• 538 – Trump approval 38%, disapproval 58%

Although his starting approval in 2025 for the second term was higher for him, it was still low and met a surging disapproval that signaled the end of the honeymoon as his negative rating exceeded the positive 53 days (March 14) into the new administration.(Ciruli blog,3-20-25)

• January 20 – RCP / 538 – Trump approval 50% and disapproval 43%
• March 14 – RCP approval 47% (down 3) and disapproval 48% (up 5)

Trump is unlikely to be approved by a majority of Americans during the rest of his term if it flows as the first 53 days, and his negatives could rise above 55 percent. At that point, Trump begins to lose his many Republican “friends” in the House.

RELATED:
Trump Starts at Record Low February 13, 2017
Trump Leaves Office With Record Disapproval January 20, 2021
Trump’s Approval Eclipsed – National Dashboard March 20, 2025

Citizens of the West – Alan Simpson RIP

In 1984, Senator Simpson was among the House and Senate conferees on an immigration reform bill. With him, from left, were Senator Edward M. Kennedy and Representatives Romano Mazzoli of Kentucky, Hamilton Fish of New York and Peter Rodino of New Jersey. Photo: Ira Schwarz/Associated Press

In 1990, Alan K. Simpson, former U.S. Senator from Wyoming, was inducted into the Citizens of the West honor roll for representing the ideals and spirit of the Rocky Mountains West. Simpson, known for his wit and bipartisan spirit, worked across party lines with his House counterpart, Romano Mazzoli (D-Ky), and passed the last comprehensive border bill, which President Reagan signed in 1986.

He was the other Colorado Senator on many issues. He passed on March 14 and will be missed.

“In Washington, D.C., those who travel the high road of humility are not bothered by heavy traffic.”

When We Help Others, We Help Ourselves

Ambassador Isobel Coleman at UCI School of Ecology | Photo Karen Tapia

UC Irvine’s School of Social Ecology hosted a talk by former Ambassador Isobel Coleman on the sudden shut down of the USAID. As the former administrator, she made a passionate case for the value of US foreign assistance. “When America halts the spread of disease overseas, it is less likely to reach our own shores; we’re healthier and safer.”

Floyd and KK Ciruli joined Dean Jon Gould and more than 100 faculty, staff, students, and community members.

Floyd and KK Ciruli | Photo Karen Tapia

Trump’s Approval Eclipsed – National Dashboard

The “blood moon” total lunar eclipse is seen above Austin, Texas, on March 14. (Photo by Rick Kern/Getty Images)

On March 14, the day of the lunar eclipse, President Donald Trump’s second term passed into negative approval in the conservative polling aggregator RTC (RealClear Politics). His approval advantage (approval minus disapproval) had been narrowing for weeks because his disapproval rating has risen from 42 percent on inauguration day to 48.5 percent on March 14, giving him a 0.7 negative approval rating. Newsweek tracking poll has him at 47 percent approval and 50 percent disapproval (negative 3%).

The primary cause appears to be his barrage of executive orders and associated actions. The public view of the economy, his strongest asset in the 2024 election campaign, has been greatly damaged by the fear of continued inflation and a possible recession, both of which he admits could result from actions and policies begun the first 53 days. Trump’s approval for handling the economy is 41 percent, 7 points below his overall approval. He now has the economic approval rating of President Biden in May of last year. The Dow and S&P are now both in negative territory after double digit gains in 2024.

The National Dashboard is a platform showing the state of public opinion for presidential approval. It tracks key indicators on the economy, direction of the country, and competition for the U.S. House of Representatives. It primarily uses RealClearPolitics (RCP) but makes comparisons to Gallup and other polls, as reported in Opinion Today.

Southern California Polling Professionals Meet Over Tacos in San Diego

Dinner in Del Mar | Photo Courtesy of Barbara Fernandez, MSPH

Floyd and KK met with Southern California pollsters and data experts over a taco dinner in Del Mar, home of the famous horse track, “where the turf meets the surf.” Joining the PAPOR (Pacific Chapter of the American Association of Public Opinion Research) session were researchers from NORC, the Kaiser Family Foundation, Action Research, Competitive Edge and, of course, Ciruli Associates.

Ciruli at JEWISHcolorado

Photos Courtesy of JEWISHcolorado

Floyd Ciruli and Denver City Councilperson Chris Hinds talk at JEWISHcolorado’s benefit dinner for Arlene and Barry Hirschfeld.

Trump’s Negatives Grow

Trump addresses Congress March 4, 2025. (Win McNamee/Pool Photo via AP)

Trump’s problems in his second term were noticeable before the end of February after about 6 weeks of Shock & Awe. At the point of his State of the Union address (March 4), as the line chart below shows, Trump is about a point positive, 49 percent to 48 percent.

His start-up approval was high compared to his low start in 2017, his first term. He tended to have an impenetrable base of approval of about 40 percent and was usually in double digit negative territory.

The National Dashboard is a platform showing the state of public opinion for the President election. It tracks key indictors on the economy, direction of the county, and competition for the U.S. House of Representatives. It primarily uses RealClearPolitics (RCP) but makes comparison to Gallup and other polls.

Trump Scrapes the Guardrails

Elon Musk took center stage at President Donald Trump's first Cabinet meeting.
Photo: USA Today

A month after the inauguration, Donald Trump is starting to scrape the guardrails I identified on January 24 related to public approval, inflation, the Dow, and the House majority.

Polling
The polling average, steady at 49 percent approval, hasn’t moved much, but some recent polls have reported approvals in the mid-40’s and disapproval has climbed from 43 percent on January 31 to 48 percent today, signaling the surge of White House news may be generating a negative reaction.

Inflation Increased
The December reported inflation rate was 2.9% and 3.0% in January, not a big change but moving in the wrong direction. It was interpreted, including by the Fed, as reason to hold interest rates steady and express caution concerning reductions in 2025. Trump was defensive and said it was Joe Biden’s fault.

Market Down
The markets have been nervous since Trump began speaking so aggressively about tariffs and mass deportations in January, actions which were seen as disruptive and likely inflationary. The Dow was 43,487 on the January 20 inauguration, jumped up to 44,544 at the end of January, and is 43,239 today(2-27-25), below the inaugural Dow average and volatile in recent days. The mass of policy and political disruption is generating caution.

Congress Struggles with Budget
The government avoided a possible shutdown by one vote in the House. Now, a long process is required to pass a reconciliation bill through both chambers. It will be difficult.

Opinion Today Published Era of Austerity

Colorado Has Entered a Challenging Era of Austerity
The tsunami effects of “Shock and Awe” have just slammed into Colorado’s local governments, hospitals, and education and research institutions with the possible loss of hundreds of millions of dollars in grant funds. It is now clear the Trump administration’s sudden curtailment of federal funding will be enormous and likely long lasting.

Opinion column by Floyd Ciruli was published in Denver Gazette February 20, 2025. It was circulated by Opinion Today, a national newsletter featuring a daily roundup of poll releases, commentary and podcasts, on February 25, 2025. The column reflects a presentation to Denver’s metro mayors in January 2025.

Gazette Article
Opinion Today Article

Shock and Awe Begins to Move the Polls

President Trump signs a series of executive orders at the White House on Jan. 20. Photo: Jabin Botsford /The Washington Post via Getty Images

During the first month, the White House launched hundreds of initiatives, with executive orders on tariffs, deportations and funding freezes and layoffs. Interspersed, high profile foreign policy has taken the center stage from bold declarations related to Canada, Greenland and Panama to pivots away from Ukraine toward Russia in the European war. Although it remains very early in the presidency, under conditions of “Shock and Awe” and “flooding the zone” early polls are picking up the impact of the executive orders and the nascent reaction from media coverage, commentary, protests, and social media.

Polling: Approval Down
Not surprising, President Trump’s approval polling average (538, RCP) hasn’t moved much since the inauguration (538, 50% on Jan. 24 with 42% disapproval) (RCP 51% approval, 43% disapproval) but disapproval is up 5 points and a host of most recent polls shows downward movement in his approval and an increase in disapproval.

Additional observations from early polls are Elon Musk and billionaires in general have a very negative image and are seen as having too much power. Several Trump- specific policies are not seen in a positive light, for example, the mass firings and the takeover of Gaza.

American Voters Are Center Right

Illustration from causes.com

American voters self-identified their ideology in the annual Gallup Poll as 37% conservative, 34% moderate and only 25% liberal. Overall they are moderate to slightly more conservative.

Parties Too Extreme
Both parties are more ideologically extreme than voters at large. Democrats are now 55 percent liberal with a tiny conservative wing of 9% and a long declining moderate block of 34%. Democrats shed most of their considerable moderate and conservative voters in the 1990’s. Republicans are 77% conservative identifiers. The party has been over 60 percent conservative since the 1990’s. There are only small moderate (18%) and liberal (4%) wings.

Democrats Must Move to Middle
In competitive states and congressional districts, Democrats are too liberal for voters’ preferences and Republicans too conservative. Hence, the endless close competition. But Democrats in particular need to dampen their most liberal agendas and constituents to appeal to the more moderate, broader electorate. Fortunately, recent Gallup polling shows that in light of the last election “a plurality of Democrats would like their party to become more moderate” (an 11 point increase since 2021).

Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/656636/democrats-favor-party-moderation-past.aspx

Axios Denver Covers Era of Austerity Presentation

Data: Floyd Ciruli, Ciruli Associates; Map: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals

John Frank, co-author of Axios Denver’s online newsletter, wrote up my recent presentation to Denver metro mayors. Some of his observations:

Population Growth

• Population growth is flat
• Job growth is slowing
• Sales tax collections are falling
• Real estate values are steady

Why does this matter?

• Welcome to “the new era of austerity” in Colorado as described to metro mayors recently by pollster Floyd Ciruli.
• The stalled economic pictures comes as costs continue to escalate and federal dollars are vanishing.

Ciruli’s Comments

• “The new era will require shifting priorities, including increasing the focus on the economy and directing government’s attention to small business, job creation and cost of living.”

READ ARTICLE

Independents Dominate National and Colorado Political Identity

State Dept./Doug Thompson

One of the big political stories out of the last decade of Colorado politics has been that the surge of new registered voters are now as likely to register Unaffiliated (49%) as either Democrat (26%) or Republican (23%). The diminished Democratic Party is slightly ahead of Republicans, who were the largest registered group in the beginning of the century. Independents have more than doubled from 30 percent in 2000, mostly since 2010.

The shift in political identity tracks the changes in America as reported by the Gallup poll. Independents are now 43 percent of Americans’ party preference and Democrats and Republicans are tied at 38 percent each. Independent identification jumped 8 points since 2008.

Will Trade War, Deportations and Funding Freeze Hit the Guardrails

Musk, his son, and Trump in the Oval Office
Photo: Eric Lee / The New York Times

As of January 31, 2025, ten days into the new administration, President Donald Trump began with a 49 percent approval (9 national polls in RCP, 11 in 538) and a 44,544 DOW.

The first weekend, Trump announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China as immigrant raids and deportations started. He immediately suspended Canada and Mexico’s tariffs for negotiations.

The second week saw a freeze of federal funding for grant programs, forced buyout of federal employees, the end of USAID, the rumored end of the Department of Education and a White House musing on a Riviera in Gaza.

Is there an executive order that Americans won’t tolerate? Congress is mostly silent and the courts are cumbersome and slow. It is still early, but reaction to the looming trade war, deportations, and massive budget cuts may begin to show up in public opinion and economic data.

Will the guardrails (see below) begin to restrain the “shock and awe,” channel its direction or even stop it? Or is the road ahead clear and fast?

Ciruli Interviews Secretaries of State Kerry and Albright

Ciruli, Kerry and Albright, 2018

In 2018, Mr. Ciruli interviewed Secretaries of State John Kerry and Madeline Albright at DU’s Korbel School annual dinner. In attendance were former Colorado U.S. Senators Gary Hart and Hank Brown and current Senator, Michael Bennet.

Mr. Ciruli taught public opinion and policy at the University of Denver and the University of Colorado in Denver. He was a Senior Fellow at the CU Denver School of Public Affairs. He was the founding Director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies.

Mr. Ciruli holds a law degree from Georgetown University Law Center in Washington, D.C., and a bachelor’s degree cum laude in political science from UCLA. He is a member of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), and is the past president of the Pacific Chapter of AAPOR (PAPOR). Mr. Ciruli was vice-chair of the Social Science Foundation of the University of Denver Josef Korbel School of International Studies and past-president of the Georgetown Law Alumni Board.

Will Republicans Lose The House?

Trump and Johnson in Miami, Florida. Photo: REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/File Photo

History shows the 2026 mid-term should punish President Trump and Republicans, at least costing them their 5-seat majority in the House. In 2018, as Trump focused on caravans in Mexico and Democrats abortion, the first two years of chaos saw a 41-seat loss and brought Trump’s nemesis, Nancy Pelosi, to the speakership. Barack Obama and Joe Biden had similar experiences.

Will Trump be different in the 2026 mid-terms? The following reflects a dialogue with Denver Metro Mayors Caucus at their annual retreat:

• Trump has been here before and realizes the danger of 2026. Since the election tends to be a referendum on Presidential performance, he could adjust the pace and volume of disruption.
• Anticipating the controversial aspect of his agenda, Trump picked cabinet officers who are both loyal and proven communicators, especially on Fox News and alternative venues. All the disruption will be better defended than in the first term.
• The “shock and awe” and “Flood the Zone” strategies have fragmented and muted most opposition. The Democratic counter attack has yet to gain traction.
• Democrats are still struggling with what happened. In 2016, a close election looked like an anomaly and Trump’s first two years of chaos was great campaign material. But his 2024 win, while historically close, left no doubt he had made inroads into the Democratic coalition and was dominating the top issues of economy, immigration and cultural overreach.

But it is very early, and Trump’s policies are highly disruptive. His approval, the market, living cost, and unemployment could move in a negative direction.

Colorado Enters a New Era of Austerity

On a snowy January morning, more than thirty Denver metro mayors were presented a darker, more challenging vision of Colorado’s next few years. Pollster Floyd Ciruli reported that the boom in population and economic activity generated from 2010 to 2020 came to an abrupt halt in the pandemic. Colorado is now entering a more difficult environment where local government will have less sales tax revenues and face escalating costs just as federal funds are diminishing.

Ciruli shared these main points:

• Colorado is entering a new era following the booming 2010 decade. This isn’t a one or two year shift.
• Population that went up nearly 15 percent (744,000) from 2010 to 2020 and added a new Congressional seat has now slowed to a trickle in the metro area. The inflow of one recent new group of residents, migrants, will end completely.
• Job growth in Colorado is slowing and unemployment is climbing.
• Sales tax which is the main source of revenue for cities has been flat in the metro region for two years (see chart below).
• The contraction of tax revenue is happening just as cities face increased costs due to general inflation and spikes in the costs of labor. Cities and the state are struggling to balance their books.
• COVID relief dollars have ended and federal funding is entering a period of austerity.

The new era will require shifting priorities, including increasing the focus on the economy and directing government’s attention to small business, job creation, and the cost of living.

Five Guardrails Around Trump

Trump speaking at the Presidential Inauguration | Photo: Chip Somodevilla, Getty Images

Post-election analysts give President Donald Trump’s advantage on the economy the most credit for his win. It was largely based on a nostalgia, and for new voters his reputation as having produced a good economy during his first term.

But there was considerable amnesia about the first term’s chaos even as Democrats spent most of their campaign efforts targeted at Trump’s misbehavior, i.e., Jan. 6, impeachments, convictions, indictments, etc. As the administration starts, will chaos come back into view?

President Trump’s win was narrow but he is governing as if it is a mandate, using executive orders and broad emergency decrees. However, there are guardrails on his behavior. His approval rating of 47 percent is high for Trump but could turn down in the first 100 days. Most observers see a burst of inflation due to the disruption of tariffs, and mass deportation. If an economic slowdown begins, unemployment will go up from record low of 4.1 percent and the market could drop after a year-end 23 percent return. Finally, Republicans only have a 4 vote House majority to move legislation.

Although political and legal guardrails may be less potent today, the Five Guardrails using recognized political and economic data will start to measure the success and blowback from “shock and awe.”

Trump Won Close Election But Considers It "No Limit Mandate"

Donald Trump Swearing In Ceremony January 20, 2017

The last three presidential elections have been close. But Donald Trump is treating his election as a landslide. To his numerous legal investigations and threats, he argues, “The voters have spoken.” Shortly after noon January 20, he will sign hundreds of executive orders on the first day as “only a dictator on day one.”

But the election results show he only received 6 more electoral votes than Joe Biden in 2020, got a lower percentage of the vote (49.9%) and fewer total votes. Trump’s vote spread was not only well behind Biden’s but was less than Hillary Clinton’s in 2016. Total voter turnout was lower in 2024 than 2020 and Trump received fewer votes than Biden.

Metro Mayors Assess the 2025 Politics

Denver Metro Area Map courtesy of www.larryhotz.com

The seven county metro mayors will assess the new 2025 political environment at their annual retreat.

Floyd Ciruli will discuss the quarter century of change in the state that increased the population by 37 percent to nearly 6 million and from a presidential battleground state with a slight Republic tilt to a safe Democratic state with unaffiliated voters in the majority.

As the new Trump Administration begins, Colorado’s relationship with Washington will change at the same time its population growth, economy, and fiscal health is being challenged.

The Metro Mayors’ Caucus was founded in 1993 to assist mayors dealing with multi- jurisdictional challenges. They now have 38 member municipalities represented. The current leadership is:

Chair	Laura Weinberg	Golden
1st Chair	Gayleen Castriotta	Broomfield
2nd Chair	Kyle Schlochter	Littleton
	Bud Starker	Wheat Ridge
	Jan Kulmann	Thornton
	Meredith Leighty	Northglenn
	Jason Gray	Castle Rock
	Greg Mills	Brighton
	Alan Paul	Director Regional Affairs Denver
	Liz Rogers	Intergovernmental Relations Aurora

UCI 2024 Election Panel: What Happened and Why

UCI’s School of Social Ecology organized a post-2024 election panel on the “Lessons from the 2024 Election in Orange County and Beyond.”

Three panels, assembled on December 6, included many of the best reporters with the Los Angeles Times and other media outlets. Some of the panelists were:

• Mark Barabak, Columnist, LA Times
• Melanie Mason, Reporter, Politico California
• Jenny Medina, Reporter, NY Times
• Seema Mehta, Reporter, LA Times
• Laura Nelson, Reporter, LA Times
• Laurel Rosenhall, News Manager, LA Times

The conversation ranged widely and offered the belief that has only grown since, that the relatively close November election will have a major effect on the two parties and American politics for the foreseeable future– we have entered a new era of power.

Orange County Has a New Poll

UC Irvine and its School of Social Ecology are conducting and publishing polls focused on the residents of Orange County. Recent headlines show its topics concerning the just-completed 2024 election but also salient issues of county residents in general. The poll results regularly appear in the LA Times and Orange County Register.

• Many OC residents skeptical of election results, potentially swaying key races, poll finds. Hannah Fry, LA Times 4-29-24
• “We just can’t afford to live here!” Housing costs are driving people out of Orange County. Hannah Fry, LA Times 8-9-24
• Poll: Half of Orange County considers move, weighs price vs. quality of life. Andre Mouchard, OC Register 8-14-24
• Economy Sways Local Voters. Hannah Kang, OC Register 12-6-24
• How OC’s diverse electorate is shifting. Hanna Kang, OC Register 12-12-24

The poll is directed by the school’s top administrator, Dean Jon Gould. He initiated it three years ago, shortly after assuming leadership of the School of Social Ecology. I consulted with Jon on the polling start-up and have been impressed with the speed and quality of the project.

The school is also sponsoring panels and other events with state and national academics, analysts, and political reporters to engage UCI students, faculty, administrators and local residents. The most recent election panel entitled “What Happened and Why” attracted a large audience with many of California’s top political reporters and columnists. It received extensive media coverage.

UCI and the School of Social Ecology have greatly enhanced their visibility while offering expertise concerning social and political issues in Orange County.

Congratulations, UCI and SSE.

Election 2024 Analysis: CU Denver Panel Series

CU Denver School of Public Affairs | Photo via Instagram

Beginning on September 6 and continuing to November 8, the CU Denver School of Public Affairs (SPA) hosted a series of panels on the 2024 election focused on Colorado. Floyd Ciruli, pollster and SPA Senior Fellow, developed the program and moderated three of the panels. The panels drew from some of Colorado’s top politicians, reporters and political analysts.

The panels and key participants were:

September 6 First Friday Breakfast: “Election 2024: Colorado and Country at a Crossroads”

• Sheila MacDonald, media commentator, Democratic political consultants, manager of candidate and issue campaigns
• Dick Wadhams, media commentator, Channel 4 analyst, consultant, former Republican chair
• Marianne Goodland, chief legislative reporter, Colorado Politics, president of the Denver Press Club

October 11 “Colorado Direct Democracy Produces a Torrent of Proposals”

• Seth Klamann, reporter Denver Post, covering statehouse, policy and elections
• Kevin Flynn, Denver City Councilman, District 2 (southwest), former Rocky Mountain news reporter
• Krista Kafer, opinion columnist, The Denver Post
• Greg Sobetski, chief economist for Legislative Council with Colorado General Assembly

November 8 First Friday Breakfast: “What Happened & What Lies Ahead”

• Chris Hanson, State Senator, Denver City/County
• Barbara Kirkmeyer, State Senator, Weld County
• Paul Teske, Dean, CU Denver SPA

Also, two additional panels were sponsored by SPA:

• “Latin X Voters: Hold Sway” (October 4) with Paul Lopez, Denver, City/County Clerk Recorder and “Disinformation and the Perils of Election Administration” (October 25) with Matt Crane, Colorado County Clerks Association.

More than 500 students, academics, administrators and Colorado residents attended in person and online.

RELATED:
CU Denver Panel Reviews Our Tumultuous Election Year Oct 3, 2024
First Friday Breakfast - Election 2024: What Happened and What Lies Ahead Oct 16, 2024
First Friday Breakfast Election 2024: What Happened and What Lies Ahead Oct 31, 2024
Is Colorado’s Direct Democracy Working? Nov 1, 2024
Election 2024: Candidate and Party Vulnerabilities Nov 19, 2024

Colorado’s Quarter Century: 2000 – 2025

Map of Colorado Couties via worldatlas.com

Looking back at the last quarter century, Colorado has been a growth boom. It added more than1.5 million people and gained two congressional districts while its politics has evolved from a swing state leaning Republican to today firmly in the Democratic camp.

• While Colorado added 1.6 million residents the last 25 years, or a 37 percent increase, its voter registration nearly doubled (66% increase).
• The state was considered competitive between the parties and in 2000, Colorado had a Republican governor, Bill Owens, and two Republican U.S. Senators, Wayne Allard and Ben Nighthorse Campbell (George W. Bush won its electoral votes). Today, Colorado votes strongly Democratic for President (Kamala Harris) and has a Democratic Governor, Jared Polis, and two Democratic Senators, Michael Bennet and John Hickenlooper.
• The six congressional seats in 2000 were 4 to 2 Republican and the 8 seats today are evenly balanced; however, the state legislature is strongly Democrat.
• Party registration has shifted from a slight Republican advantage to about half the voters unaffiliated with Republicans in third.

Although the Colorado economy has, since 2000, mostly grown, it followed the various national slowdowns (dot.com bust, great recession, pandemic). The state was on a major growth boom from 2010 to 2020 driven by 700,000 people moving in, mostly young, well educated, anglo. But since the pandemic, Colorado’s population growth slowed dramatically, the economy has cooled, and now local governments are facing tight budgets.

Democratic Race to Replace Newsom Begins

California State Capitol, AP Photo/Juliana Yamada

California is about to change governors. As Governor Newsom ends his term and the Democratic Party struggles for a strategy and message after November 5, a host of Democrats are beginning the early primary maneuvering.

A new statewide poll of all voters from UC Berkeley shows the early order of names, mostly sorted by their name identification, with liberal former US Senate candidate Katie Porter ahead and followed by more than a dozen lesser known politicians.

Republicans came in second and third. The table shows the top seven names.

The field then drops to less than 7 percent of the 1st or 2nd choice among voters. Included in the “other” category was Rob Bonta, California Attorney General, Betty Yee, former State Controller, and Rick Caruso, L.A. businessman. One large caveat is, if Kamala Harris jumps in the race she would start with a third of the vote as “very likely” to support her and another 13 percent “somewhat likely” (46% total).

The Democrats begin the race with a major advantage in the general election. However, their effort to adjust to the November 5 voter slippage and address the state’s population slow down and affordability crisis will be watched by Democrats nationwide.

Newsom Begins Tough National Race

Newsom and Trump in 2018 | Photo: Politico/Paul Kitagaki Jr.

Governor Gavin Newsom, who is term limited, has a major handicap as he begins presidential field testing, namely California. A new Census report shows the state is still slated to lose more congressional clout as people leave the state. It is judged in repeated national polls as a failed state rated “least desirable to live” and ranks last again in U-Haul move ins. And in a November revolt 68 percent of the voters enacted harsh new penalties for property crimes and drugs, defying Democrats who had advocated lighter sentences. They also dumped two Democratic District Attorneys.

California lost its first congressional district in its history after the 2020 reapportionment. A new population report shows if current population trends hold, the state could lose four congressional seats in 2030. The big winners are Texas and Florida, which could gain seven.

The most frequent complaint is the high cost of living in California. Unfortunately, Democrats have contributed to the affordability crisis with regulations, taxes and mandated wage increases (highest in cost of living in country, 4th highest tax burden).
OC Register, Lansner 12-22-24

Newsom has two years to show he’s not the problem and there are some solutions. It won’t be easy.

Polis Term Limited - Democratic Race Starts

Polis with Chainsaw | Photo: Nick Coltrain, Denver Post

Governor Jared Polis’s chain sawing of outdated executive orders got him national attention of Trump officials. While the term limited Polis is beginning to adjust his image for his next political move, Colorado Democrats have begun the silent primary to replace him for 2026. One congressperson and two of the state’s constitutional officers, both term limited have been tested in a recent statewide poll of prominent Democrats. The results, mostly reflect name identification at this early, early point.

Attorney General Phil Weiser who had the lowest name identification has already announced his campaign, no doubt to make up being less known. He is also considered more moderate in Democratic Party circles but should have an opportunity to raise his profile and partisan edge engaging with the Trump Administration. Jena Griswold, the highly partisan Secretary of State, had the highest favorable rating among Democratic-leaning voters but also the highest unfavorable. Although Congressperson Joe Neguse is not well known, he had a high favorability rating and would be a formidable candidate. Ken Salazar, former Senator and current Ambassador to Mexico, is both well known and popular, but he considered the race in 2018 and decided against it. At 69, he would be the oldest candidate in a field when generational change is being widely discussed. Others could have been tested, such as Congresspersons Jason Crow and Brittany Pettersen.

It should be a competitive primary.

Reported by Seth Klamann, Denver Post 12-17-24, Marshall Zelinger 9 KUSA 12-16-24