Trump’s Mandate Enough

President Donald Trump signs executive orders in the Oval Office on Monday, including one to end DEI programs. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

President Trump came into office claiming his modest victory was a mandate for aggressive presidential action on most anything he said on the campaign trail. With a blizzard of executive orders (213) and other presidential actions (budget shifts, domestic troop movements), Trump has flooded the news cycle and overwhelmed much of the opposition. Finally, the public is saying enough.

The polling data shows Trump’s November collapse, which began in later October (negative 8 points Real Clear Politics), became a rout by Thanksgiving (down 13 points). Polling site Fifty Plus One has Trump down 17 points. The Decision Desk HQ has him down 14 points (Reported in Hill).

The following chart shows the November 2024 election, which Trump won with 1.5 percent, and approval and disapproval polling showing on November 4, 2025 election day, he was down 11 points and on November 27 he was in negative territory by 13 and 17 points. His approval has declined 8 to 10 points since his 2024 election.

	November 5 2024 Election	November 4 2025 Polling (RTC)	November 27 2025 Polling (RTC)	November 27 2025 Polling (FPO)
Trump	49.8%	43%	43%	40%
Harris	48.3%	54%	56%	57%
Difference	-1.5	-11	-13	-17

Source: Ciruli Associates 2025

November 4 provided hard evidence of voters’ anti-Trump mood to accompany his negative polling (soft evidence), highlighting his political problem with the economy and especially inflation.

RELATED:
Trump Approval Collapses and Nov. 4 Turns Blue November 20, 2025

Speaker Johnson Ties House to Trump

House Speaker Mike Johnson of La., points to President Donald Trump after he signed his signature bill of tax breaks and spending cuts at the White House, Friday, July 4, 2025, in Washington, surrounded by members of Congress. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

The result this November 4 was similar to President Trump’s 2018 election when Republicans lost 41 seats. Trump was not on the ballot but his poor performance rating was down 13 points. This was an anti-Trump vote. Many of the groups that moved toward him in the 2024 Biden/Harris election shifted to Democratic candidates in high profile races. Also, the anti-Trump mood affected non-partisan races and initiatives. It was the prime mover in California’s Proposition 50’s sweep of the state. In Colorado, it helped turn out left-leaning voters who supported liberal and labor-endorsed city council and school board candidates.

Speaker Johnson’s weak position in terms of his majority and his ascension’s dependence on Trump reinforces his inability to get any distance from the President. He could be headed for a short, humiliating speakership.

He has diminished his office and the institution.

• Kept the House out of session during a record-long government shutdown and refused to swear in the newly elected Congresswoman from Arizona, as part of the effort to derail the Epstein files’ release (he lost the discharge petition 427 to 1).
• Ignores the repeated and systematic shift of spending authority from the House and its committees to Trump and the executive branch. In fact, cheered the Supreme Court to grant Trump power to levy tariffs without congressional approval.
• Called No Kings rally attendees Marxists and Hate-America participants, mimicking Trump’s rhetoric.
• Represents Bossier City, Louisiana, noted for its casinos and a high poverty rate. Shows little interest in constituents’ food insecurity or lack of health care.

Large Mid-Term Election Losses by Presidents Since 1960

Year	President	Party	Loss	Comment
1962	LBJ	D	47	Vietnam/Civil Rights
1974	Ford	R	48	Watergate/Pardon
1994	Clinton	D	54	Lost House/Health Care
2006	Bush	R	32	2nd Mid-Term/Iraq
2010	Obama	D	63	Health Care/Tea Party
2018	Trump	R	41	Repeal Obama Care

Source: Ciruli Associates 2025

Mid-term elections are usually considered a referendum on the administration’s performance. This will be Trump’s second mid-term, within an unusual second term. Notice W. Bush lost 32 seats in his second mid-term. Since the 1960s there have been 5 losses of more than 40 seats. Does the President Trump partnership and Speaker Johnson’s leadership suggest a landslide?

RELATED:
Pelosi: An Election Winner Retires November 19, 2025

Will Democrats Win the House?

U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) departs the House floor
Photo: REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

Since November 4 election results combined with President Trump’s abysmal polling numbers and the House’s Epstein and other controversies, the viewpoint is growing among political observers and office holders that Democrats will win the House of Representatives. It may not be by the 2018 landslide of 41 seats, but it’s very likely to be by at least 20 seats.

Some observations by the pundit class:

• Trump is now at a low for his second term and similar to his 2018 November debacle. Fifty Plus One has Trump down 17 points (40% approval). Even Republican-oriented RCP has Trump out by 13 points (43% approval). (In late October 2018, he had 41% approval in Gallup, 39% in CNN).
• To win against the rigidity of the congressional field with only about 60 competitive seats out of 435, and the President’s ongoing effort to gain advantage with redistricting and voter suppression, Democrats will need to be ahead by at least 8 points. Fortunately for them, that was about the point spread their candidates beat Kamala Harris’s 2024 vote in New Jersey and Virginia.
• Democrats are currently ahead by 5 points in the RCP generic ballot, a reversal of the 3 point lead Republicans held during the first 7 months of the President’s second term.
• Pundits, of course, try to model the election and 2026 looks more like the close 2020 election Biden won than the 2024 election Trump won. Core Democratic groups appear to be solidifying against Trump’s aggressive immigration enforcement and his tariffs as an economic boom.
• Finally, it’s clear increasing numbers of Republicans in more competitive seats or leaders responsible for maintaining majorities realize that showing some independence from Trump is becoming politically necessary.

Trump is becoming a lame duck earlier than expected.

RELATED:
Will Republicans Lose The House? February 6, 2025

Metro Sales Tax Revenue Finally Up

After two years of flat sales tax revenue collection in the Denver metro area, a modest increase has been reported. As of August 2025, revenue is up by 1.6 percent or about $1 million on one-tenth of a percent tax, or $2 million by year’s end.

The aggregate data doesn’t show which of the seven metro counties is growing. Denver still reports a slow sales tax revenue increase.

Denver Metro Area Sales Tax Revenue Changes

Years	Revenue from Tenth of Cent	Increase/Decrease from Previous Year
2018	$63 M	5.4%
2019	$66 M	4.8%
2020	$64 M	-2.8%
2021	$76 M	18.8%
2022	$86 M	12.2%
2023	$86 M	0.5%
2024	$86 M	0.1%
2025 (Sept.)	$64 M	1.6%

Ciruli Associates 2025

Kevin Flynn Pulls Denver to the Center

Photo via Facebook

As the national battle over congressional district lines proves, how the election system is designed makes a difference in the outcome. Denver’s city council in recent years has lurched to the political left partially because the city’s at-large city council election procedure allowed candidates representing marginal views to win a seat with as little as 16 percent of the vote due to the lack of a runoff. The process was largely inherited from usual circumstances and court cases since the 1970s.

Long-term Denver City Councilperson Kevin Flynn, a Democratic political moderate, proposed a fix. He got a divided council to place it on the ballot and won on November 4th with 55 percent of the vote. Flynn believes candidates regardless of views should have at least half of the electorate supporting them in the final vote.

Congratulations, Kevin

Trump Approval Collapses and Nov. 4 Turns Blue

Photo via Politico

President Donald Trump is now 13 points negative on approval and disapproval, a record low for him (11-15-25). He was a major liability for Republican and conservative candidates and causes in the November 4 off-year election. Trump was not on the ballot but his poor reputation was. Democrats swept governor races in New Jersey and Virginia, the Mayor's election in New York, and numerous lower-level elections, including in the south. It even handicapped conservatives in non-partisan city and school elections in Colorado and helped California’s Proposition 50 supporters.

Trump’s net approval began dropping rapidly since the shutdown started on October 1st. Net approval of his handling the shutdown was -27 percent on November 3, 2025 (YouGov).

In general, the public has been unhappy with Trump’s performance on the economy. He has a net -15 and a majority of people report spending more on groceries (71%) and electricity (59%) as reported October 28 (Washington Post, ABC News Ipsos).

In the first major voter test of Trump’s nearly 10 months into his second term, Democrats and more liberal forces swept to victory arguing Trump promised to deliver an economic turnaround had failed. Trump citing the stock market boom was not enough or relevant to their lives

Blue Wave Sweeps into Denver

A voter drops off a ballot on Election Day in Denver’s Central Park neighborhood.
Photo: CPR News

The anti-Trump Blue Wave that swept November 4 partisan elections in the East also hit Colorado’s off-year non-partisan ballot. Jessica Seaman reported in the Denver Post (11-7-25) on school board wins by labor candidates in Denver and Douglas with addition pick-ups in areas recently dominated by conservative school boards in Mesa and Montezuma counties. She reports 80 percent of labor-endorsed candidates won statewide.

I was quoted that this wave election may reflect both a reaction against the powerful conservative school board movement that gained majorities after the pandemic – no school closures, no masks, no no-trans sports or bathrooms, book censorship – all of which Trump and the Trump administration supported.

I speculated that this may be a harbinger of a broader backlash against Trump and his control of national politics. I specifically cited one of Colorado’s most Republican counties, Douglas, is in transition to a more liberal position.

“Tuesday’s results “may be a backlash from the incredible conservative school movement that got started during the pandemic,” said pollster Floyd Ciruli.

“(If) leadership in Washington doesn’t read it correctly, it’s going to be a very bad 2026 for them.”

More broadly, Douglas County’s elections may be on the “cutting edge” of the shift away from the conservative school movement, Ciruli said, noting voters’ rejection of a home-rule measure this year.

“Their elections for partisan office are less overwhelming in recent years,” he said. “Their margins have been getting more and more narrow.”

READ ARTICLE:
Here’s a look at how some school board races ended up CPR News, Nov, 5, 2025

Pelosi: An Election Winner Retires

Photo: White House

Former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi retires after another huge election win. Proposition 50, California’s anti-Trump redistricting measure that she worked/ advocated/fundraised for, passed 64 to 36% or a 28 percent victory (count on November 7).

Pelosi first became speaker in 2007 after the 31-seat Republican House loss in W. Bush’s second mid-term. She regained the gavel in 2018 in Trump’s 41-seat collapse in his mid-term.

Pelosi’s Big House Wins

Year	President	Win Seats	Notes
2006	Bush	31	Pelosi becomes speaker
2018	Trump	41	Regains the gavel
2026	Trump	?	Jeffries ?

As she finishes her final House year, she wants an anti-Trump victory like 2018 and to hand the gavel to Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

Is Newsom the Front Runner?

California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks during a rally with Harris County Democrats at the IBEW local 716 union hall on Saturday, Nov. 8, 2025, in Houston. | Karen Warren/AP

The Proposition 50 win was huge. The nearly two-to-one spread (64%–36%) covered all of voter-rich Southern California, including Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego and Imperial Counties.

Governor Newsom was the instigator, primary advocate, and fundraiser ($80 million) for the proposition after overcoming skeptical legislators and a well-funded opposition.

Proposition 50

County	Yes	No
Los Angeles	64%	36%
Orange	55%	45%
San Diego	61%	39%
Riverside	56%	44%
San Bernardino	57%	43%
Imperial	60%	40%

Ciruli Associates 2025

The few early national polls have Newsom first or in the top three for the Democratic Presidential nomination. Winning the high-profile contest countering President Trump’s Texas redistricting strategy makes him the fighter Democrats have been looking for. And having a high profile in the November 4 national Blue surge was good political fortune.

The Democratic Party’s work now focuses on the 2026 mid-term election and expect Newsom to spend considerable time out of state.

READ ARTICLE:
Admit It. Gavin Newsom Is the 2028 Front-runner.
Politico, November 15, 2025

Population Growth for Colorado and Metro Denver Slows 2000-2024

Map of Colorado Couties via worldatlas.com

Colorado’s population growth surged early in the century and added 1.6 million new residents and two congressional seats, one in 2001 and another in 2021 after the latest census. But growth slowed dramatically after the 2020 pandemic, including in Denver and the metro area. Denver is the largest county in the metro area and represents about a quarter (22%) of the metro area population. The metro area represents more than half (56%) of the state’s population.

The metro area includes Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, Jefferson counties. The flat population growth contributed to the state’s economic slowdown, the Denver and state budget crisis, and the notably reduced metro sales tax revenue in 2023 and 2024. (See articles linked below on Era of Austerity and metro sales tax collection.)

RELATED:
Colorado’s Quarter Century: 2000 – 2025 January 10, 2025
Metro Denver Sales Tax Revenue Flat Again May 7, 2025

Colorado Enters a New Era of Austerity February 5, 2025
Axios Denver Covers Era of Austerity Presentation February 18, 2025
Opinion Today Published Era of Austerity February 27, 2025

Quarter Century of Political Change for Colorado and Metro Denver 2000-2024

Denver Metro Area Map courtesy of www.larryhotz.com

Starting in 2008 after the Democratic National Convention that was held in Denver and Barack Obama’s ultimate election, Democrats have dominated Colorado presidential politics. Notice the significant jump in the Democratic vote in Denver after the convention. Arapahoe, a mostly Republican County, also drifted towards the Democrats in 2008 and much further after the 2018 election with a near sweep of county offices.

Douglas County remains Republican but not as strongly as early in the century. After Obama, Democrats Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris all won the Colorado presidential contests.

The metro area includes Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas and Jefferson counties. Together, the region voted 63 percent for Harris in 2024, nine points higher than the state. Denver, Boulder and Broomfield were the most supportive counties for Harris and Douglas the least. Adams and Jefferson counties are more competitive, but the Democratic party has been in control.

Vibrant Denver Wins Big

Election Night party at Après Govnr's Park. Nov. 4, 2025. | Photo: Kevin J. Beaty/Denverite

When Denver voters are down they usually invest big. The city on the high plains really would not have been much if founders hadn’t fought for the railroad which started it off to become the regional transportation hub it is today. It took an airport investment in DIA (the region’s biggest business) during the middle of a steep economic downturn to keep Denver the Capital of the Rocky Mountains West.

The 2025 near-billion-dollar bond package won a major victory as Denver makes a statement that the current economic and political climate won’t hold it back.

Roberts’ Court Begins Term with Record Low Respect

Roberts and President Donald Trump shook hands at a joint session of Congress in March. | Win McNamee/Getty Images

Chief Justice John Roberts, a Washington establishment conservative, was described as an institutionalist. Protecting and even enhancing the Supreme Court’s reputation was his goal.

After 20 years, he has spectacularly failed. This next session is likely to drive a court already seen as “too conservative” even further to the right and the institution into what Gallup reports as its record lowest level of respect.

Approval of how the “Supreme Court is handling its job” has lost more than 16 points since 2020, going from 58 percent approval to 42 percent today. The Dobbs decision in 2022 and the Amy Comey-Barrett appointment to the Court in 2020 has cemented the Court’s image and reputation as conservative. In fact, 43 percent now believe the Court is “too conservative,” a record high, up from 32 percent in 2020.

The presidential immunity decision of Roberts, which many believe has emboldened Trump to repeated challenges to the rule of law along with numerous so-called “shadow” docket decisions has made Trump and the expansion of his power the primary legacy of Roberts and his Court.

RELATED:
Conservatives Have Been Most Critical of Supreme Court Feb 19, 2016
October Surprise Early – KOA Radio Sep 24, 2020
Abortion – It’s Back May 6, 2022

SCFD: Logos and Principles

The Denver Zoo’s earliest and most renowned exhibit, dating from 1918, held a Rocky Mountain brown bear in its cave-like Bear Mountain. It was one of the nation’s first natural-themed animal exhibits, with no bars.

Fast forward to 1988 when the campaign for the newly conceived SCFD (Scientific & Cultural Facilities District) began, and the Zoo opened Northern Shores, a polar bear exhibit with a viewing area where the bears could be seen swimming underwater. It became wildly popular. A regional poll showed that polar bears are an especially beloved animal, so the campaign retained the Zoo’s design artist to create the SCFD bear logo – a version of which has been central to the campaigns and the district’s marketing efforts ever since.

The SCFD is a national model and has been an operational success in the seven-county Denver metro area for more than 35 years. As it begins its path to reauthorization in 2028, it will be important to keep in mind the basic principles that were established in the original legislation.

A series of blog posts that describe them:

• The SCFD and Regionalism
• Guidelines for Public Support and Sustainability
• The SCFD is Designed to be Frugal and Accountable
• Reasons for SCFD Staying Out of Politics

Denver’s Bond Campaign Builds Momentum

Denver city leaders cut the ribbon on the opening of the city’s 16th Street to symbolize its reopening after years of renovations, Oct. 4, 2025. Photo: Hart Van Denburg/CPR News

Denver’s civic establishment is now pushing toward a positive vote for Denver’s five property tax debt increases for infrastructure:

2A	Transportation and mobility
2B	Parks (Park Hill) and recreation
2C	Health and human services
2D	Infrastructure related to libraries, art, culture, animal shelter, police/fire training center
2E	Housing and shelter

Although a regular campaign of online communication, legacy media, and direct voter contact is being launched, the main thrust of activity is to announce completion of or plans for various city projects. These include the long-overdue but welcomed ribbon cutting for the 16th Street project, the announcement for a revamp of Pavilions Mall on 16th Street, and confirmation of the Broncos’ stay in Denver in old water department space.

The goal is to show Denver on the move after the bad news of slow growth, federal funding cuts, and Denver’s budget crisis and layoffs. Voters like good news. It should help.

RELATED:
Johnston’s Bond Package Facing Challenges September 11, 2025
Peña Administration 1983–1991 Honored September 10, 2025

Pueblo Has a Barn Burner Election

Pueblo, CO | Photo via City of Pueblo website

In the November election, Pueblo will continue its recent political history of upheaval. Having just changed its form of governance from city council/manager to elected mayor, it may vote to change back. When most cities are avoiding general fund sales tax increases (no metro Denver city is requesting one), Pueblo wants one. It also is asking to renew a half-cent sales tax for economic development at the same time firing its economic development organization (PEDCO), which has been leading the charge for 40 plus years. It also has a host of charter amendments benefitting unions and elected officials.

Pueblo in recent years has added more Republicans to office, including the Pueblo Mayor and two County Commissioners. But the city’s governance doesn’t look more responsible.

RELATED:
Pueblo Loses a Champion April 13, 2018
Pueblo Mayor Gradisar Crushed in Reelection Bid February 8, 2024

Trump Approval Holds, Negatives Grow

Senior military leaders look on at Marine Corps Base Quantico on September 30. Alex Wong/Getty Images

President Donald Trump did not have a good September. He is now 8 points negative on approval and disapproval. But more importantly, he’s probably a 42 percent approval, or 3 lower than the RCP average shown below if you examine the economic issues where Trump is mostly around a 42 or lower approval.

A review of Trump’s approval average on the top issues highlights his weakness.

As we discussed in the September 2 post “Trump Shifts to Crime, Anti-DC,” crime and immigration are the only issues working for him and inflation and the economy are major problems.

In September, a new issue emerging was authoritarianism, which is surging negative for the President. From the Kirk funeral oration to Kimmel to Comey to troops in the cities, alarm bells are ringing for much of the public from Trump’s rhetoric and behavior. Ipsos reports (9-28-25 Opinion Today) the top issue at the end of September is political extremism and threats to democracy ahead of the second place issue, the economy.

Nearly half of Democrats (45%) rate it number one and 27 percent of independents (28% overall, 14% Republicans).

Colorado Again Site of High Profile Shootings

Investigators at Evergreen High School in Evergreen, Colo., on Sept. 10. RJ Sangosti / Denver Post via Getty Images

CNN in its report of the Evergreen High School shooting, reviewed the deadly numbers related to Colorado high profile mass murders since the 1999 Columbine High School massacre.

Evergreen was the 47th shooting that took place at a school thus far in 2025, 24 of which were on college campuses and 23 on K-12 school grounds.

We have made some progress on protecting schools and children. But we remain very vulnerable to disturbed people, some with political agendas, access to weapons of mass killing and toxic social media. It is left up to parents, friends, employers, teachers, counselors, others, to be alert.

Westword Describes Tier I of SCFD

A penny for your thoughts: How SCFD Tier I institutions use their funding

On September 15, 2025, Westword published a report written by culture editor Kristen Fiore on the operation of the SCFD. The introduction describes the financial crisis that initiated the effort of civic and cultural leaders to develop a funding mechanism. It was approved by the Colorado legislature and then the voters in a 1988 vote by 75 percent.

The Scientific & Cultural Facilities District has become a national model and has been renewed by the voters three times over the last 35 years. Fiore points out that:

While arts advocates occasionally complain about how SCFD funds are distributed, there’s no denying how the tax has enriched the overall cultural scene over the decades.

Read article:
A Penny for Your Thoughts: How SCFD Tier I Institutions Use Their Funding

Guidelines for SCFD Public Support and Sustainability

The Denver Art Museum is located in the Golden Triangle Creative District. Photo by Visit Denver

The Scientific and Cultural Facilities District (SCFD), the Denver metro area’s national model for regional funding of cultural facilities and programs, was developed in the mid-1980s in response to a funding crisis among the largest cultural facilities in Denver. A group of civic leaders assembled to respond to the shortfall and devised a solution, a number of pragmatic guidelines. The 1988 legislation was drafted based on those guidelines. Since 1988, the district’s basic principles have been reviewed and renewed by Colorado legislatures and voters repeatedly in three successful reauthorizations (1994, 2004, 2016). The basic principles:

1. Minimize bureaucracy and cultural-related politics and ensure accountability through a low-profile, non-controversial, non-partisan board.
2. Provide funds for operations, not capital. Encourage municipalities and private donors to fund capital; encourage ongoing fundraising.
3. In reviewing the qualifications of new organizations, the SCFD board must ensure the primary purpose of the establishing legislation is followed.
4. Provide a sustaining level of funding support for the largest regional cultural programs and facilities to allow for long-term planning and investments.
5. Fund organizations with more localized, specialized audiences by using budget and audience data to allocate funding. Employ audits/other measures for accountability.
6. Fund county level organizations based on their contribution of revenue to the total regional tax. Grants are recommended by community cultural councils (selected by county commissioners). Commissioners have final approval. Avoid cultural elites or special interests’ dominance.
7. Restrain bureaucracy with limited funding to ensure dollars go to cultural providers.
8. Include a sunset provision requiring periodic renewal elections to keep organizations’ focus on public service, access and fiscal accountability.

Modest updates were made in the operation and formulas in the statutes in each renewal election by the state legislature. They were then signed by the governor and endorsed by the electorate.

In California Sur a Quarter Century of Growth Stops

Session 2: Changing Demographics and Attitudes in Southern California
Left to right: Jon Gould (UC Irvine), John Nienstedt (Competitive Edge Research and Communication), Gaby Gonzalez (Policy and Innovation Center), Liz Hamel (KFF), Floyd Ciruli (Ciruli Associates). Photo courtesy of papor.org

Orange and San Diego counties, after growing by more than 50 percent since 2000, adding 1 million people each, stopped in 2020, the year of the pandemic. And growth has not resumed. At the annual conference of PAPOR, a panel described the political demographics and attitudes of Orange and San Diego counties. A comparison follows:

Orange and San Diego counties anchor California in the south. Each has about 3 million residents, but they have unique histories and many distinguishing characteristics. Importantly, they have different influential neighbors. Orange is south of LA, much like a sprawling suburb, and San Diego is north of Mexico, with a dominate municipality. Both counties have been in political transition in this quarter century but at different paces, reflecting their histories, cultures and demographics.

• Nearly equal populations of 3 million. After steady, sometimes feverish growth, it stopped after 2020 (pandemic). Similar to state, both counties lost population last four years.
• The White population in both counties at or about 50% dropped to 38% in OC in 2020 and 43% in SD. The second largest group in each county was Hispanic (Latino) with about a third of the population. Growth in OC went from 31% to 34% in 20 years but the Asian population zoomed from 13.7 in 2000 to 22% in 2020. In SD, Asian group grew from 9% in 2000 to 12% in 2020.
• Both counties have moved Democratic in the last quarter century with President Bush winning in 2000 but Kamala Harris and Democrats in 2024. The shift took place in 2008 with President Obama in San Diego and 2016 in Orange County with Hilary Clinton. Harris barely won OC (3%) in 2020, which remains competitive but she won with 17% in San Diego.
• Democrats have gained power in local offices in both counties and now have a majority of the board of supervisors. Republicans remain more numerous and officeholders more influential in OC.
• Outside of partisanship, both counties show independence going right and left on ballot issues. In 2024 Prop 36 on crime control won overwhelmingly in both counties – 75% OC / 65% in SD. Housing bonds, minimum wage and rent control lost in both counties. Several liberal positions such as marriage rights and school board passed.

RELATED
Political Change in California Sur: PAPOR Conference June 27, 2025
PAPOR - Political and Demographic Change in Orange/San Diego Counties August 11, 2025

SCFD with Romer, Mayer and Morgan

In 1985 trustee Rex Morgan (center) who chaired the board’s subcommittee for government affairs, initiated efforts that lead to creation of the Scientific and Cultural Facilities District in 1988. Here Frederick Mayer, board chairman, joins Morgan at the signing of the original act by Governor Roy Romer (seated)
Photo courtesty of the Denver Art Museum

Governor Roy Romer, Denver Art Museum (DAM) board President Frederick Mayer, and member Rex Morgan join in a ceremonial signing of the Scientific & Cultural Facilities District (SCFD) legislation. Morgan was the DAM’s chair of the subcommittee for government affairs that initiated the legislative effort to create the act.

Others involved in the early formation of the SCFD from the DAM were Frederic Hamilton, Barry Hirschfeld, Julie Smith, Linda Spangler and Robert Rich.

The SCFD, after four decades of success, has become a national model of cultural funding. As the district begins its 2028 reauthorization, its founders and supporters highlight its guiding principles of being regional, frugal, accountable, and non-political.

Porter Front Runner – Low Ceiling

Katie Porter uses her whiteboard to make a financial point in the House of Representatives. Photograph: C-Span

Katie Porter’s upside in running for Governor is some residual name identification from her recent unsuccessful U.S. Senate campaign and her hard left image in a liberal party. Her downside is a surly reputation with congressional witnesses, staff, and ex-boyfriends. The unpleasantness and non-party attitude contributed to a weak showing in the senate race.

An additional weakness is to be running in a Democratic-dominate state with a poor reputation on taxes, regulation and cost of living. There is no reason to believe four years of Katie Porter won’t contribute to the four congressional seats the state expects to lose in 2030.

Much of the party leadership is looking for an alternative.

READ ARTICLE:
She’s famous for taking on CEOs. Can Katie Porter win the California senate race? The Guardian, Feb 29, 2024

Trump Shifts to Crime, Anti-DC

Members of the National Guard stand by at Union Station, August 14, 2025 in Washington. Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

Donald Trump has always linked immigrant deportation with crime reduction. The poor public reaction to ICE and DHS raids has caused the White House to shift its rhetoric to criminal enforcement with the National Guard in D.C. as the visual.

A host of recent polls show that as deportation has ramped up to meet White House quotas with masked, armed agents at schools, parks, store parking lots, hospitals, car washes or just roving, public support has dropped. What had been Trump’s best issue is now negative. Crime fighting remains a popular rationale for deportation. The President has targeted DC as “crime infested,” along with most Red state large cities, and he is using the National Guard. Early polls show that using the military in cities may be as controversial as the ICE raids.

• 53% approve Trump’s crime approach but only 43% approve his deportation tactics by August (APNORC). 55% of Americans said Trump goes too far deporting immigrants. Up ten points since February.
• 8 in 10 say crime is a major problem in large cities (APNORC poll). 55% okay to use military or National Guard to assist large cities but only a third (32%) believe they should take control major city police departments.
• ICE, the nation’s biggest law enforcement agency, is seeing its favorability rating collapse since the start of Trump’s term. It was a positive 15 points and now is 3 points negative (39% favorable vs. 52% unfavorable) (YouGov-Yahoo survey late June).

Johnston’s Bond Package Facing Challenges

Park Hill Golf Course Photo via Colordo Golf

Denver voters will be asked on November 4th to vote on a $935 million five bond package for buildings, roads, bridges, parks, and recreational centers/libraries. Over the last twenty years, Denver mayors have won voter approval for many bond packages, often at or in excess of half a billion dollars but not without challenges, and this year they are formidable.

Denver voters are concerned about the economy and especially the cost of living, and feeling powerless to stop or influence the direction of the national government.

• Economic uncertainty has people cautious about their finances and especially concerned with the cost of living.
• Denver’s city government is in financial hard times exacerbated by the federal government causing a budget shortfall, a hiring freeze and layoffs.
• The mayor, two years into his term, is dealing with a down economy, poor city financials and considerable criticism from various civic factions. Polls show his approval rating is low. In 2024, his affordable housing proposal lost a city-wide vote.
• The bond package assemblage process and major elements received criticism from various stakeholders, especially city council.

A view of the Park Hill Golf Course in northeast Denver, which closed in 2018. Photo via Colorado News Online

However, Denver city government and various interest groups will conduct a major campaign, or even several. Early polling is positive. The Denver Post has endorsed it and a major theme is repairing and investing in what Denver has. History suggests it should pass even handily, but many observers today are cautious.

Eddie Robinson, the Nicest Guy

Edward A. “Eddie” Robinson

Barry Hirschfeld said it best:

“Eddie was the sweetest... he didn’t have a mean bone in his body. In the almost six decades we worked together in the Jewish and secular community, he always showed up. He was always there to help, regardless of whether the need was large or small. He will be sorely missed by all who were fortunate enough to know him and call him a friend.” Barry Hirschfeld, JEWISHcolorado Lifetime Achievement Award recipient and founding leader of Colorado cultural funding organization, the Scientific and Cultural Facilities District.

Eddie was a long-time president and member of the Denver Zoological Foundation board and a stalwart supporter of Denver and Colorado’s tourism, hospitality and cultural organizations, including the nationally recognized SCFD.

Eddie will be missed.

Peña Administration 1983–1991 Honored

The Denver City Council officially recognized the accomplishments of Federico Peña and his administration with a proclamation on August 25.

In attendance and in the picture were David Miller, David Greenberg, Tom Gougeon, Steve Katich, Happy Haynes, Catherine Archuleta, Zeik Saidman, Steve Kaplan, and many others.

A great team.

Is Denver’s News Leader in Crisis?

The Denver NBC affiliate 9News in located on the corner of Speer and Logan in Denver, Colorado. (Google maps) via The Colorado Sun

Channel 9 Denver, Colorado’s TV news leader for decades, has been purchased by a larger, conservative news group, Nexstar. In the Denver market, Nexstar owns Fox News 31 and Channel 2.

Many observers believe 9 News will change but carefully. It is a potent, valuable brand in the Denver market. Some of the changes won’t happen for a year or more given regulatory and litigation delays. The attrition of staff and talent looking for other jobs or stepping-up retirement is the biggest concern of 9 News management. They are trying to reduce this by urging calm.

(L to R) Floyd Ciruli, Amb. Chris Hill, former 9News political reporter Brandon Rittiman and 9News anchor Kyle Clark

I worked with 9 News for 3 decades starting in 1987 with Ed Sardella, Mike Landess, Paula Woodward and Ward Lucas. Then Adele Arakawa, Gary Shapiro, Mark Koebrich, Kyle Dryer, Kim Christiansen, and many others. I provided political commentary, especially for elections, and with Ciruli Associates, polling in partnership with KOA radio and the Rocky Mountain News. The political commentary continued into the new century working with political reporters Adam Schrager, Brandon Rittiman and anchor Kyle Clark.

RELATED:
Colorado Is a Great State to Watch Politics June 17, 2022
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Denver Food Court - C Concourse

From left to right: Bar Dough, ChoLon, and La Casita

Marczyk, ChoLon, Bar Dough, Smashburger, and the anchor, La Casita. The C Concourse is a hometown food court and great fun for Denverites returning.

Polar Bear SCFD

The Denver Zoo’s earliest and most renowned exhibit held for a Rocky Mountain Brown Bear. In 1918, the Zoo built Bear Mountain, one of the nation’s first naturalist animal exhibits, no bars. Just as the 1988 campaign for the newly conceived SCFD (Scientific & Cultural Facilities District) began, the Zoo opened Northern Shores, a popular polar bear exhibit. A regional poll showed that polar bears are an especially popular animal, so the campaign retained the Zoo’s design artist to create the SCFD bear logo, a version of which has been with the campaigns and the district’s marketing ever since

The LA County Fire Will Super Charge Wildfire Awareness

Lahaina and Pacific Palisades fires

Wildfires in California, because of their scale, duration, and frequency, are high in the public’s awareness. But now, due to the Pacific Palisades, Eaton and other LA County fires, public attention is riveted on the fires and concern about wildfire will be at an all-time high.

In Orange County, an August 2023 poll on wildfires showed that wildfire was judged the number one county environmental problem by half the public. But after the news reporting of the Lahaina fire on Maui on August 8, the wildfire response jumped 11 percentage points and moved wildfires ahead of drought/water supply, as the top environmental problem.

Statewide, the latest PPIC poll shows wildfire now the top environmental concern of residents, ahead of drought and water supply, which lead the list in 2023.

If extreme weather events such as wildfire continue, public concern and desire to do more to prevent and contain wildfire will increase.

The survey concerning fire prevention and mitigation was conducted for an association of Orange County fire agencies and conservation groups by Ciruli Associates with YouGov America. The survey of 1000 residents was conducted from July 20 to August 27, 2023. A total of 573 interviews were conducted before the fire was reported on August 8, 2023, and 427 after. It had a margin of error of ±4.8 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.

REALTED:
Wildfire – California and Orange Counties Top Environmental Concern August 7, 2025

Reasons for SCFD Staying Out of Politics

The Scientific and Cultural Facilities District (SCFD) has a long history of strict nonpartisanship and of staying out of politics and political controversies. From its inception the SCFD has been nonpartisan to avoid involvement in ideologies and other polarized activities. The program is essentially a pass-through to local cultural organizations and agencies and was designed to avoid engaging in controversial and divisive political and social issues.

Colorado statutes, local ordinances, and quasi-government agencies’ rules strictly limit political activities of tax-supported government entities regarding elections. The law reflects public disapproval in general of government self-promotion, especially related to elections that serve an organization’s self-interest.

But beyond statutes and laws, one of the principles of the SCFD – and embedded in its design – is frugality regarding bureaucratic and non-essential expenditures. The board control and administration assures the statute is followed and there are fiscal and programmatic accountability rules for grantees. Funding is designed to go to the organizations providing cultural benefits and public access, not SCFD election-related marketing or political activity.

In a difficult economic period, spending funds on non-essential activities is especially admonished. Government marketing is frequently seen as political or self-serving. It also provides an easy target for critics of the program and cultural funding in general.

One public information strategy of the SCFD since its establishment has been to encourage the grantees, now nearing 300, to consistently promote the SCFD in literature, emails, social media and signage for exhibits and productions. Most organizations actively use the material and examples the SCFD provides including the polar bear logo.

However, the SCFD does not and shall not engage in politics. It refrains from spending tax dollars on campaigning. During a campaign year and election, the SCFD reduces its public information activity. At the point the ballot measure is approved by counties, the SCFD stops all spending of public funds for promotion.

The SCFD will have a renewal election in 2028. It should be vigilant that neither its expenditures nor its policies violate the founding principle of staying out of politics.

The SCFD is Designed to be Frugal and Accountable

The Scientific and Cultural Facilities District (SCFD) was first approved by the Colorado legislature and signed by Governor Romer in 1987. It has been a highly successful dedicated tax fund for cultural facilities and programs throughout the seven-county Denver metro area and it has become a national model.

The SCFD one-tenth of one cent tax was proposed in the 1980’s to replace part of lost appropriations from the City and County of Denver and the Colorado State Legislature to benefit the city’s four main cultural facilities: the Denver Art Museum, Denver Museum of Nature and Science, Denver Botanic Gardens and Denver Zoo.

As the legislature was approached to create a taxing district, it was clear that voters already have many demands on their discretionary dollars from government – such as police protection, parks, roads, social services, etc. A tax for culture was a new concept and needed to be modest. Its administration should have limited bureaucracy and strict financial accountability.

When first established, the SCFD administrative support was limited to 0.75 percent of the total budget, or about $100,000 annually. Avoiding cultural bureaucracy ensured annual funding goes to organizations that provide cultural benefit to the public. When created in the 1980’s, a major controversy erupted in Washington, D.C. over arts funding. The SCFD was designed to avoid such disruption to its cultural organizations. Today, culture is again politically controversial.

The grants from the SCFD promote the self-sufficiency of organizations but not dependence on tax dollars. Also, larger organizations are required to have audited financial statements while smaller organizations provide financial reports reviewed by the SCFD to ensure accountability of funds.

As the SCFD approaches a 2028 renewal election, it needs to ensure the founding principles of frugality and accountability are being followed.

PAPOR - Political and Demographic Change in Orange/San Diego Counties

The annual conference of the Pacific Chapter of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (PAPOR) will be held in San Diego August 14 and 15. The two days of panels will present new research on public opinion, methods, and trends.

On August 14, a “Changing Demographics and Attitudes in Southern California” panel will review the political attitudes and demographics of Orange and San Diego Counties.

I will present a comparison of Orange and San Diego counties. Each has about 3 million residents, but they have unique histories and many distinguishing characteristics. Importantly, they have different influential neighbors. Orange is south of LA, much like a sprawling suburb, and San Diego is north of Mexico, with one dominant municipality. Although they are separated by about 20 miles of chaparral, both counties have been in political transition in this quarter century but at different paces, reflecting their histories, cultures and demographics.

Also presenting will be Jon Gould, UCI Dean of the School of Social Ecology, Gabriela (Gaby) Gonzalez, Economic Analyst, San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center, and John Nienstedt, President and CEO of Competitive Edge Research & Communication, Inc.

PAPOR will hold its annual convention in San Diego County on August 14 to 15 at the Bahia Resort Hotel.

To get more information, view the PAPOR website: https://www.papor.org

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