Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Republicans Dominate Colorado’s Congressional Delegation. Will it Change in 2014?

Republicans hold four of Colorado’s seven congressional seats, and the great battle in 2014 will be for Congressman Mike Coffman’s 6th congressional seat, which he barely held in 2012, a strong Democratic year.

Although all politics is local, U.S. congressional races are strongly influenced by the tides that are affecting national politics. The signs are mixed for partisan advantage in 2014.

Democrats have been hopeful to regain the 16 seats they need to retake the House and Colorado’s 6th CD is one of the seats they have targeted. But President Obama’s weak approval numbers and a series of failed and controversial initiatives make 2014, at best, a wash.
  • The President’s national approval rating is barely holding onto 44 percent, under water by 6 points. His latest statewide approval was 41 percent (Quinnipiac, August 2013).
  • ObamaCare, which will be in the news the next several months due to its October 1 implementation date and the Republicans’ effort to defund it, is not popular with many voters, including many who will vote in the 2014 midterm election.
  • Historically, in the president’s last midterm election the incumbent’s party loses House seats. The election will attract fewer voters than a presidential election year. In Colorado, typically 700,000 fewer voters will show up.
  • Colorado voters appear to be in protest mood. They just pushed two Democratic leaders out of office, leaving Democrats on the defensive. 
  • Coffman’s re-election chances have improved as Democrats have stumbled.

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