Mattis’ New Book – September 3

General Jim Mattis is beginning to speak. His book, “Call Sign Chaos: Learning to Lead,” is published September 3, 2019. In an essay in the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday (Aug. 28), he outlined his concern with the country’s political polarization and its international go-it-alone approach, especially related to maintaining allies. Along with his resignation letter, the two documents serve as a clear rebuke to President Trump and his governing philosophy and style, especially as applied to his foreign policy. The book tour will be as interesting as the book.

Read Mattis’ resignation letter here

Gen. Jim Mattis and President Donald Trump | PBS NewsHour

Cavuto Fires Back

Neil Cavuto blasted President Trump on his show
Aug. 29, following the president’s latest attack on
the network | Drea Cornejo/The Washington Post

Neil Cavuto, who broadcasts one of the few opinion shows on Fox Business that tries to present a
balanced perspective, responded to President Trump after his attack on the conservative news organization for a lack of support:

“First of all, Mr. President, we don’t work for you. I don’t work for you. My job is to cover you, not fawn over you or rip you. Just report on you – call balls and strikes on you.”

Nicely phrased Neil.

Read HuffPost: Trump’s War With Fox News Heats Up As Neil Cavuto Delivers Fiery Takedown

KOA Interview: Hickenlooper Goes for Fast Break

John Hickenlooper rushed into the Colorado U.S. Senate race with his third video of the year, racking up a game of pool at his old brew pub, the Wynkoop (his announcement was March 4 and his withdrawal August 15). He moved quickly because there are 11 Democrats already in the race and they appear unlikely to drop out or stop their fundraising, endorsement seeking or organizing. In an interview with April Zesbaugh and Marty Lenz on August 23, we discussed what challenges he faces in the transition from a failed presidential campaign to frontrunner in the Colorado Senate race.


Failed President Campaign

It had been clear to most observers that after the second presidential debate in late July that Hickenlooper had little to no possibility to make the next debate round. And, in spite of his repeated efforts to downplay any interest in the Colorado Senate race, a host of D.C. politicians and media personalities told him to drop out and switch.

Once a decision was made, he conferred with his colleague, Michael Bennet, and began a fast and well-planned transition as the video and some early endorsements show.

Frontrunner

Numerous polls confirm that Hickenlooper would enter as the frontrunner against the little known Democratic primary field (more than 50 points in one poll) and that 2020 was likely a Democratic year in Colorado, with a 10- to 13-point advantage (much of the Democratic ticket won by more than 10 points in 2018).

Hickenlooper’s problem is that there are two Democratic parties voting in the Democratic primary next June. There are about 150,000 party activists. They represent the more progressive wing of the party and various important interest and identity groups, like organized labor, environmentalists, women and minorities. (There will also be a new bloc of unaffiliated voters who can participate.)

Previous elections and recent polls confirm that the progressive wing comprises more than half of these activists. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren supporters are part of this group and don’t appreciate Hickenlooper’s anti-Medicare for All and Green New Deal positions. Anti-frackers have become more powerful in Colorado since Hickenlooper left office. They will actively oppose him. The teachers union opposes his position on charter schools and will likely find other candidates. At least early on, Hickenlooper will face the ire of Democratic groups that didn’t support him for president and won’t back him for senate unless forced to by the choice of Gardner vs. Hickenlooper.

Establishment Candidates

Hickenlooper likely wouldn’t be in the senate race, but for the effort of the Democratic Party establishment, especially in D.C. and its media-friendly organizations, like MSNBC, to encourage him. Minority Leader Schumer and a host of other Democratic senators believe that Hickenlooper was needed to help retake the majority. Within a couple of days of the announcement, the DSCC endorsed him with its financial clout and team of top D.C. consultants.

The only problem is that Colorado Democrats resent and usually resist the party establishment. In 2016, Bernie Sanders crushed Hillary Clinton among the Colorado activists who tend to dominate the party nominating apparatus. Hickenlooper will likely need to go by a petition nominating route to minimize the rank and file resistance. Republicans should benefit from the Democratic Party’s nomination donnybrook.

A couple of side notes:

Hickenlooper mentioned Mitch McConnell as often as Cory Gardner in his video. McConnell polls worse than Gardner. Expect a lot of attacks on McConnell.

One visible message was that Hickenlooper is a straight shooter. His repeated disparagement of the Senate as not a place that gets things done and his disinterest in it will be a long-term political weakness. The sudden switch has made him appear a partisan politician, which he’s tried to avoid his entire career.

KOA: Is Bennet Out?

April Zesbaugh and Marty Lenz asked questions concerning Senator Michael Bennet’s prospects to be in the September debate, and if not, does he drop out?

Make the Stage – No

Although there may be a couple of polls done by August 28 that could be counted, but are not yet reported, it’s impossible for Bennet to make the stage. He’s never registered 2 percent in a national or state poll and he doesn’t have the online contributor goal (130,000). In fact, at the moment in the national polling average, he’s near the bottom and registered 0.5 percent, having missed even 1 percent in recent polls (rounded to 1% in chart below).

Drop Out – Now or Delay?

At least eight candidates are in a similar position to Bennet – should they drop out now or delay the decision? The October debate uses the same rules. They could go to Iowa and wait for the caucus.

Unless something extraordinary happens, the current field will be the group selected from by caucus and primary voters. Bennet must decide when delay becomes a political liability.

Note: Kirsten Gillibrand dropped out after the interview

Read The Buzz: Michael Bennet: A Decision is Near

TABOR Override Below 50% in Adams County

The statewide TABOR override is in a close contest among Adams County likely voters. The Proposition CC labeled, “Retain revenue for education and transportation,” has 44 percent in favor to 40 percent opposed in a recent Ciruli Associates poll among Adams County likely November voters. It is below 50 percent, with two-fifths of voters already in opposition. In recent weeks, Democrats, i.e., legislators, recognizing the vulnerability of the proposition, have mostly abandoned it. And, indeed, the poll indicates initial Republican voter opposition (68%), which is likely to grow. Unaffiliated voters are leaning slightly against.

Opposition has already ramped up with attack ads appearing online. Republican leadership, realizing the tax implications of the proposition as a tool for a party in need of a rallying theme, has gone all in to oppose it.

Ballot Titling

Democrats gave the proposition a major public relations lift in the ballot titling. They started with a disclaimer about raising taxes, listed the programs benefitting, claimed the budget will remain balanced and offered an annual “independent” audit.

Proposition CC: Retain revenue for education and transportation
WITHOUT RAISING TAXES AND TO BETTER FUND PUBLIC SCHOOLS, HIGHER EDUCATION, AND ROADS, BRIDGES, AND TRANSIT, WITHIN A BALANCED BUDGET, MAY THE STATE KEEP AND SPEND ALL THE REVENUE IT ANNUALLY COLLECTS AFTER JUNE 30, 2019, BUT IS NOT CURRENTLY ALLOWED TO KEEP AND SPEND UNDER COLORADO LAW, WITH AN ANNUAL INDEPENDENT AUDIT TO SHOW HOW THE RETAINED REVENUES ARE SPENT?

The Ciruli Associates polling question was more modest and straightforward in its description:

Proposition CC is a TABOR override to retain state tax revenue to fund public schools, higher education, and roads, bridges and transit. Do you favor or oppose the proposition to allow the state to keep and spend all the tax revenue it annually collects instead of the current requirement to refund the money to taxpayers?

The poll was conducted August 6-9, 2019, with 401 likely November Adams County voters (the area poll represents 77% of county), with plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

The public tends to favor local TABOR overrides, but this one is for state government, which seldom has much voter support for tax increases, and Democrats made it permanent. The November 2019 turnout will be smaller, older and more conservative.

A couple of questions to ponder:

• Will Proposition CC’s November result affect Democratic 2020 momentum and Governor Polis’ and the Democratic leadership’s political reputations?
• Will the Proposition CC result affect the plans of liberal interest groups to take TABOR head-on next year?

Ensslin and Westergaard: Dedicated to Fact-Based News

Colorado just lost two exceptional newsmen with experience and talent as reporters, columnists and editors.

I was interviewed by them dozens of time since the 1980s, both on the record and on background. They knew and respected the rules of good journalism and worked very aggressively to both get the story and check the facts.

Thank you John and Neil for the fact-based news.

John Ensslin

Neil Westergaard

Gallup Polls Forewarn Political Crises in Argentina and Italy

Argentina

Pollsters were surprised that an expected close primary election became a 16-point rout of incumbent President Mauricio Macri’s government in a national vote August 16. A stalled economy and a revitalized Peronist Party with a more mild-mannered nominee, Alberto Fernández, put Macri on the defense.

A Gallup poll published August 17 showed 62 percent of Argentinians said the economy where they lived was getting worse. The negative view of the economy started shortly after Macri was elected and various austerity measures were enacted. An anticipated economic recovery failed to appear.

Presidential hopeful, Alberto Fernández (right), and former president, current
 senator and vice-presidential hopeful, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner at
campaign rally in Rosario, Santa Fe, Aug. 7, 2019 | Frente de Todos/AFP

Italy

Confidence in the Italian government is at 21 percent among citizens according to Gallup (Aug. 20, 2019). It is down 10 percent in the last 5 years, from 31 percent in 2014. On Tuesday, the government fell as the center-right party withdrew its support and the prime minister resigned, possibly leading to a new election. Matteo Salvini, an anti-immigration, Eurosceptic nationalist, is gambling on winning a majority for his League party and govern without his current coalition partner, the Five Star Movement.

Giuseppe Conte (C) with ministers Matteo Salvini (L) and Luigi Di Maio
during his resignation speech, Aug. 20, 2019 | RTÉ Newsroom