Hickenlooper Makes First Debate

In the latest 538 analysis of the Democratic presidential candidates’ positions (Nate Silver), John Hickenlooper is awarded a debate spot based on receiving at least one percent in three credible national polls. His polling position remains near the bottom.

In a New York Times Sunday feature, local correspondent Julie Turkewitz follows Hickenlooper on the campaign trail and points out as yet, he hasn’t caught the viral moment. Hickenlooper, himself, worries that there may not be enough money to exploit that moment if and when it happens.

Read The Buzz: Dates selected for first Democratic debate. Will Hickenlooper make it?

Confirmed: Democrats Hold Primary on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020

As predicted in The Buzz on April 25, Democrats will indeed hold their Democratic delegate selection primary on March 3, Super Tuesday next year. The Colorado primary will join twelve other states as of May 1, 2019: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia.

Chancellor Chopp was Just What DU Needed

Chancellor Rebecca Chopp

Photo: Kansas Wesleyan University

When Rebecca Chopp was selected as the University of Denver’s chancellor, the school was ready for a new strategic direction. The foundation, both structurally and academically, of the University was sound, but higher education was changing rapidly. Chopp, with energy and a facility for bringing people together (a lot of meetings), got the plan finished and approved. She’s now implementing it with a new campus land use plan, new buildings and new initiatives. Chopp just announced her resignation to deal with medical issues. Fortunately, she will be available to help on the transition with Provost Jeremy Haefner as intern chancellor. Two of her top goals were to heighten the University’s well-established international reputation and strengthen DU’s connection to Denver and Colorado, both of which Haefner shares.

Rebecca, good luck on your return to full health. Thank you for five years of vision, boundless energy and good spirits.

See: DU Chancellor Chop announces decision to step down

Presidential Primary

Colorado ended its presidential primary after the 2000 presidential election because of the cost when compared to the modest and variable partisan turnout over the three presidential elections.

In 1992, Democrats managed to turn out more than 234,000 in a contested primary California Governor Jerry Brown won. But with Bill Clinton, the unopposed incumbent in 1996, there was no contest, and only 84,000 Democrats voted in 2000 as Vice President Al Gore was seen as the likely nominee. Republicans’ biggest primary turnout was in 1996 when Senator Bob Dole received 44 percent of more than 246,000 voters. But, first President Bush as an incumbent won 68 percent, with 190,000 voters participating in 1992, and his son, George W. Bush, won 65 percent in 2000 as he was seen as the very strong frontrunner and only 177,000 Republicans turned out.

Hence, with the economic downturn of the early 2000s, Governor Bill Owens suggested going back to the party administrated caucus and dropping the primary.

The newly authorized Colorado primary likely to be held on the first Super Tuesday, March 1, 2020, will have little or no Republican participation, but a record turnout can be expected among Democrats and newly enfranchised unaffiliated voters.

High or Low Turnout – Denver Mayor’s Election 2019

The last two contested mayoral elections in Denver have produced modest voter turnout compared to partisan elections, which regularly see more than 200,000 voters participating. The 2018 midterm election counted 312,000 ballots cast in Denver and 194,000 in the 2010 general election. Whereas Denver municipal elections in 2003 and 2011 turned out 113,000 in both general elections (1st race) and only slightly more in the 2011 runoff.

There are, of course, many more residents in Denver in 2019 than 2011, but the race remains low-key as of April 24.

Mueller Report: What’s Next? KOA Interview With April Zesbaugh and Marty Lenz

The day after the Mueller Report was released, I discussed with KOA’s April Zesbaugh and Marty Lenz the politics of the report.

Some observations post the commentary:

1.   The release of the Report is national and international news, but there is no evidence it will change many views of President Trump or his White House. Neither public opinion nor Republican opinion has moved since the March 24 delivery of Attorney General Barr’s four-page memo on the Report. Trump still has 44 percent overall support and 85 percent among Republicans.

The immediate reporting of the Report’s contents has been mostly negative, focused on obstruction and many reports of White House dishonesty, paranoia and chaos. But, the release was shaped by Barr’s preceding press conference and his earlier letter. With no underlying crime and obstruction not charged, the Republicans, including those who must run with him in 2020, are relieved.

2. History suggests that the circumstances of the political era shapes the political impact of special prosecutors’ reports. The release of the Starr Report in 1999 simply sent the parties to their respective corners. Bill Clinton remained popular and Democrats argued there was no underlying crime unrelated to bad judgement (sex) in the Oval Office.

Whereas the release of the Watergate tapes in 1994 destroyed the Nixon presidency. But by then, Richard Nixon’s popularity was about 38 percent nationally and barely 50 percent among Republicans. Democrats controlled both houses of Congress and Nixon was a lame duck. Today’s polarized political environment links to 1999 more than 1974.

3. What type of Democratic candidate might benefit from the Report’s revelations? An outsider-type was speculated as helped. True, but in the 1976 and 2000 elections post Nixon and Clinton, respectively, the candidates seen as most opposite the damaged incumbent were selected. Jimmy Carter and George W. Bush both promised to bring moral rectitude and decorum to the White House. Both were outspokenly religious in sentiment.

Is Pete Buttigieg the smart mayor; Kamala Harris the tough prosecutor; or John Hickenlooper and his positive campaign the alternative most desired?

4. After the Report, the ball is now in the Democrats’ court. The legislative leadership has made clear they don’t want to move to impeachment less than a year from primaries and less than two years from the election, but pressure from the activist base will be intense. The media will continue to highlight the Report’s evidence of gross, if not criminal, misbehavior.

The Democrats are looking for a strategy that keeps the issues alive, but avoids the appearance of overreach, which the President and his legislative and media supporters will claim nonstop.

• Demand the full report
• Have Mueller, Barr and especially McGahn testify
• Proceed to question his taxes, probe agencies and other aspects of the administration

The final conclusion as of Easter weekend: the game is not over. There is no complete or total exoneration, but the Trump presidency continues and most likely the election will provide the judgement on Trump and his administration. In which case, the Democrats still need to worry about the quality of their candidates and their programs.

Aurora Getting Presidential Candidate’s Attention

Elizabeth Warren speaks to supporters at the Hangar at the
Stanley Marketplace, Aurora, CO, April 16, 2019
Photo: Philip B. Poston/Aurora Sentinel

Senator Elizabeth Warren just visited Aurora. The city is likely to see a host of candidates before next March’s presidential primary. Aurora and Arapahoe County have become the Democrats’ new favorite stop due to the huge margins they are providing. Jason Crow crushed incumbent Mike Coffman by 41,000 votes, while Governor Polis won by 49,000 and Democrats swept county offices.

In an Aurora Sentinel interview with Kara Mason, I pointed out that liberal Democrats have historically won the Colorado caucuses more often than mainstream Democratic candidates.

Colorado political consultant Floyd Ciruli said the changing political landscape in Aurora and Arapahoe County is attractive campaigning territory to Democrats, especially for candidates with more progressive values.

“Caucuses tend to go toward the left flank of the party, and she accurately sees that Colorado could be very important to her,” he said. 

Colorado Democrats favored Bernie Sanders over Hilary Clinton in 2016 and former President Barack Obama over Hilary Clinton in 2012 — a clue that candidates like Sanders and Warren may fair better in metro Denver this cycle, too. The 2018 election also serves as a recent reminder that Arapahoe County is more blue than it once was, with the election of Congressman Jason Crow and the defeat of the Republican clerk and sheriff.

Even with Aurora in “blue wave” territory, Ciruli still sees Colorado as a shade of purple – so the state is to be an important one as the race for 2020 continues to heat up.

“Colorado has been a favorite for these candidates probably more than a decade because it’s been a swing state since 2000,” he said.

Warren held the event at the Stanley Marketplace. Millennials like it and she wants to attract the younger members of the party (and independents).

“She is competing for the people who hang out there, it’s a millennial, cutting-edge thing,” he said of the now-renovated aviation manufacturing facility that’s home to hip eateries.

“Her message is looking for millennials and young people and urban people who are thinking about new things in life and new trends,” Ciruli added. “She’s hoping those are the voters she’ll reach.”