Economist – Polis, a Libertarian Democrat?

In an interview in the latest Economist, Governor Jared Polis is profiled as a Libertarian Democrat whose success will depend on striking a balance between a progressive legislature and campaign agenda versus a state with a moderate and conservative fiscal disposition.

My citations were:

Last autumn’s election was the most significant for Colorado’s political realignment in more than 40 years, says Floyd Ciruli of Ciruli Associates, a political consulting firm.

The legislature, which is now in full session, will not share the sense of moderation and is likely to pull Mr. Polis further left than he wants, according to Mr. Ciruli.

The author, Alexandra Suich Bass, ends with placing the political burden on Polis

The state’s political transformation is still relatively new. Whether it lasts will depend in part on the success of Mr. Polis’s reign.

John Ensslin is Back

It’s good to read a John Ensslin byline. Back on the Denver news scene, he covered the mayoral debate for Colorado Politics (March 26). The primary questions in the Denver mayor’s race have not changed in months: Can Mayor Hancock’s challengers force a runoff and is growth and its attendant affects the issue that frames people’s choices?

There are some similarities to the 2011 election when Hancock was first elected:

Continuity vs. Change. Hancock, a longtime city council member and president, represented continuity. Chris Romer was for change.

Insider vs. Outsider. Although Romer was an established businessman, he wasn’t considered a city insider. Hancock was.

Liberal vs. More Liberal. Hancock was the liberal candidate. Today, he would be considered center-left.

Growth vs. Less and Different Growth. The election in 2011 was still focused on recovery from the great recession. Eight years later, the costs and excess of Denver’s spectacular growth are the issue.

Read The Buzz: Denver Post: Construction Cranes Everywhere. Mayor’s Race as Referendum on Growth.

Congratulations Colorado. A Very Sharp Looking Logo.

Governor Polis just gave Colorado a new logo. Mountains, evergreen and the state flag’s “C.” Very modern Colorado.

DeGette Having an AOC Moment?

Incumbent congresspersons are usually not in serious primaries. Diana DeGette, in her twelfth term, is in a real fight. Federico Pena and Ken Salazar have endorsed challenger, Crisanta Duran. Expect more as the year proceeds. Like AOC in New York, big city Democratic incumbents (Anglo) are being challenged. Is DeGette ready for a fight or retirement?

Rep. Diana DeGette and Crisanta Duran

California’s Growth Stalls While Florida and Texas Boom

After decades of steady and often spectacular growth, mostly from migration from other states (augmented by other countries), California’s growth has been cut in half the last eight years from its recent trend. Out migration now exceeds new arrivals. Florida and Texas continue on their recovery from the Great Recession starting in 2008. Both are drawing many U.S. residents to their economies and lifestyles.

California’s attitude, especially in its high-lifestyle coastal region, is anti-growth, characterized by municipal and county restrictions on businesses and new housing. The cost of available housing has skyrocketed, pushing many Millennials to look for more affordable regions, mostly out-of-state. The Democratic single-party state government is also highly burdensome for new businesses and new housing development. Taxes are high and homelessness is now the top complaint in most communities.

The California dream has collapsed for many and other choices are being made.

No Collusion, No Impeachment – KOA and 9KUSA

The Mueller report finding of no collusion is very good news for the President. Trump’s mantra of no collusion is validated. In 9KUSA and KOA interviews, the politics of the Mueller report was dissected. The finding of no collusion means no impeachment. Speaker Nancy Pelosi already understood the politics and stated that for impeachment to be credible and not work to the Democrats’ detriment, it had to have the Mueller report outlining “high crimes and misdemeanors.”

The Special Counsel's investigation did not find that the Trump campaign or anyone associated with it conspired or coordinated with Russia in its efforts to influence the 2016 U.S. presidential election. As the report states: “[T]he investigation did not establish that members of the Trump Campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities.”

But, the Russians did interfere with the election by social media efforts to divide the U.S. electorate and help Trump and by hacking Democratic emails for distribution to damage Hillary Clinton and help Donald Trump. Did it make a difference? Not determinable, but the 77,000 three-state victory of Trump will forever be less legitimate. And, there is a host of contacts between his campaign associates and principals and the Russians to forever raise doubt that there was an, at least, unethical intent and action.

But, Mueller was less definite on obstruction of justice. Attorney General Barr’s letter states:

Instead, for each of the relevant actions investigated, the report sets out evidence on both sides of the question and leaves unresolved what the Special Counsel views as “difficult issues” of law and fact concerning whether the President's actions and intent could be viewed as obstruction. The Special Counsel states that “while this report does not conclude that the President committed a crime, it also does not exonerate him.”

Hence, there will be a demand for the evidence “on both sides of the question” and for Congress and the public to make their own judgement. According to Barr, the lack of finding collusion was fatal to the charge of obstruction as it undermined the “evil intent” requirement.

Trump will, of course, argue he’s exonerated and any further inquiries are partisan harassment. Democrats will demand the evidence and continue at least some investigations. And, of course, the President’s re-election effort is benefited by the lifting of the cloud and endless stories of subpoenas, raids, testimonies and pleas. Although Trump was harmed by the investigation, and would have been possibly fatally damaged by a finding of collusion or obstruction, the success of his re-election is based on other political factors.

The midterm result and recent polls, including from his preferred FOX News, show that he starts from behind in voter approval and head-to-head face-offs because of his unpresidential demeanor and many unpopular policies on health care, immigration and taxes. Historically, incumbent presidents get re-elected. Both Trump and the Democrats are now back to the real task of convincing voters they should lead the country after 2020.

The Honeymoon is Over

The National Popular Vote (NPV) law was not in the State of the State. As the tweet reports, the NPV is partisan, controversial and little understood. A new poll confirms the tweet. As Colorado Politics, Complete Colorado and the Denver Post report, a new Magellan Strategies poll shows a quarter of the population has no opinion on the law, and the remainder are divided about equally on its favorability (34% favorable to 37% unfavorable).

If Republicans manage to get it to the ballot, today, the vote is equally divided at 47 percent. It would most likely lose and Democrats own it. As expected, it’s a partisan decision with 81 percent of Republicans opposed to it and 77 percent of Democrats for it. Currently, unaffiliated voters lean against 44 percent to 48 percent, another sign proponents rushed the law through with little explanation.

Democrats will be playing defense on a law that will produce national attention, but that is peripheral to their state agenda. The honeymoon for Democrats is over, and one of the governor’s and legislature’s least important initiatives may also be the least defensible.

See Colorado Politics: Colorado voters evenly split over “National Popular Vote” law, poll shows