Wednesday, January 31, 2018

Denver Post and the Paywall

The Denver Post continues to lose print subscribers and is about to embark on what may be a final effort to stabilizing their revenue stream. The Denver Post will introduce a paywall of $11.99 per month for digital access.

The Denver Post is a community asset, even in its diminished form. It still commands attention with its in-depth stories, ability to set the agenda, and highlighting nefarious and heroic personalities. But, newsmakers – political, policy, commercial and sports – desiring to reach a regional audience must think even more serious about multiple placement.

Hickenlooper and Amazon

Gov. John Hickenlooper’s comments at City Club were more nuanced than the Denver Post headline: “If Amazon doesn’t pick Denver, there will be a sense of relief.”

Hickenlooper was recounting that he began his first term in 2011 with an intense focus on economic development with county-by-county economic plans, efforts to reduce state regulations, and a welcoming recruitment attitude toward new and expanding businesses. But the Governor related how, as he begins his final year of speeches and legislative action, growth exhaustion and even a backlash are in the air.

His warning to the business community is to address the transportation, water, Internet and other major infrastructure issues that are straining public opinion and hampering job development. He argued it’s very hard to restart business recruitment once a community turns against it.

He’s right.

Tuesday, January 30, 2018

The USS Carl Vinson Visits Da Nang

No, it’s not the beginning of the liberation of Vietnam. It’s just a friendly port call for one of the U.S.’s most formidable carrier battle groups – the USS Carl Vinson.

USS Carl Vinson battle group | Getty
It is ironic the carrier is visiting Da Nang, the busiest base in the Vietnam War 50 years after the most celebrated military action that changed the course of the war – the Tet Offensive.

But where a country stands depends on where it sits. The Socialist Republic of Vietnam is on the eastern edge of the Indochina Peninsula facing the South China Sea, an area it shares with a newly aggressive China. Vietnam has been realigning itself with allies on the Pacific Rim and especially the U.S. The USS John McCain, a destroyer named for Senator McCain’s father and grandfather, both U.S. Navy admirals, has already visited (2016 Cam Ranh Bay), but the Carl Vinson is an even bigger signal that competition is the South Pacific will be a geopolitical hotspot for the foreseeable future.

Monday, January 29, 2018

Colorado Politics: Will Colorado’s Next Guv Keep Water at Top of Agenda?

More than 70 percent of Colorado’s water leadership believe that the state’s snow this winter will be below or very below average. The voting on water issues took place at the annual Colorado Water Congress with several hundred leaders gathered to hear the Governor give his final water legacy speech. Both the Governor and the audience, who voted with their cell phones, were optimistic that the state water plan would continue to be a guide for planning by the next administration.

In a Colorado Politics column, I describe Colorado’s water utilities’ efforts to stay ahead of droughts with new storage, reuse and conservation.

Will Colorado’s Next Guv Keep Water at Top of Agenda?
More than a decade ago, Colorado learned that it faces a projected shortfall of more than 400,000 acre-feet of water by 2040. The amount, if stored and if conservation techniques were implemented simultaneously, would supply water to 2 million people. But during the past 10 years, the state has continued to attract people – now, more than 2 million newcomers are expected to arrive by 2040. Meanwhile, Colorado is susceptible to drought cycles, with the last one occurring in 2012. This 2017-2018 winter season is certainly starting out exceptionally dry in the high country, which is of concern because the Front Range gets the majority of its water supply from mountain snowmelt. Water supply is a constant priority in Colorado.

Fortunately, the state has a water plan and hundreds of water agencies committed to meeting the challenge. Some are large, like Denver Water, Aurora Water, Colorado Springs Utilities and Northern Water, and deliver thousands of acre-feet of water to millions of customers. But most agencies are smaller and support Colorado’s regional towns and cities, farms and ranches. Read more…

Friday, January 26, 2018

Marijuana Panel Brings National and State Polling and Policy Experts to Colorado at National Conference

The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) and the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at the Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver (DU) will sponsor a panel on marijuana, public opinion and legalization at the AAPOR national conference at the Denver Sheridan on May 15.

National and state pollsters will join legalization and regulatory experts and policymakers to describe how public opinions shaped the passage and implementation of marijuana legalization in Colorado and other states. They will also focus attention on the changed political climate from Washington D.C. and how it could affect public attitudes and the future of marijuana legalization in Colorado and around the country.

AAPOR, the national association of public opinion researchers, was founded in Central City in 1946 and first headquartered at DU. This will be their first national conference in Denver.

Floyd Ciruli, the director of the Crossley Center, will be the local organizer of the panel. The Crossley Center at DU is named for Archibald and his daughter, Helen Crossley, two pioneers of survey research and founders of AAPOR.

More information about the panel will be available as the agenda is finalized. Find information about the AAPOR conference here.

Thursday, January 25, 2018

The Color of Green

In a record of 8 days, the Dow crossed 26000 on January 17, the fasted record 1000-point gain in the Dow’s 121-year history. Young Eric Trump was quoted in a recent interview that his dad is only interested in the color of green. It was in defense of his father from the charge of racism. He argued that his dad was only interested in making money as a private businessman, but now wants to make America rich.

President Trump agrees. One of the few indexes he regularly points to is the surging market. The Dow Jones now more than 7000 points above the day Trump was elected in November 2016. This may not be a top, but it’s definitely looking like exuberance, where some analysts say caution has given way to greed. No one wants to be left out.

The President’s economic approval rating appears to be moving up. He is now at 50 percent approval on the RealClearPolitics index, and as the new year began, it was at 45 percent. A group of economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal rated his policies and action to date as strongly or somewhat positive on:

Trump is still not personally popular, but his economy is and it may benefit the GOP.

Tuesday, January 23, 2018

Colorado Politics: Will the Tax Plan Sell Itself? Republicans Had Better Hope So.

With the economy strong and the markets booming, President Trump and Washington Republicans are increasingly confident the tax cuts will boost their chances next fall. They will need it. At the end of the year, the tax plan was deeply unpopular as was Trump. In my latest article in Colorado Politics, the statewide political website, I opine on the Republican challenge.

Will the Tax Plan Sell Itself? Republicans Need It in 2018
Just as President Trump was hoping to leave for his holiday in Palm Beach, cable commentators were questioning why he hadn’t yet signed the tax bill. Trump, ever sensitive to his TV image, staged a quick signing ceremony on December 20 before wheels up. When asked if he will spend time promoting the plan, Trump said: “I don’t think I’m going to have to travel too much to sell it. I think it’s selling itself.”

Although there is some basis for the President’s optimism, the plan starts in a deep public opinion trench and will need to make up a lot ground. The fate of the tax plan’s popularity will be a key factor in the 2018 midterm outcome. Read more…
Tax Plan Sells Itself
President Donald Trump celebrates passage of the Tax Cuts Act with Senate
Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (L), Speaker of the House Paul Ryan and Vice President Mike Pence, Dec. 20, 2017 | Official White House Photo/Flickr