Republicans Not Happy

Note to the State Republican Party Leadership: a number of your rank and file believes you are not very bright. You have pulled the Colorado Republican Party out of Super Tuesday and made picking convention delegates in one of the most interesting nomination battles in modern history a matter for party insiders. Also, you did this in the year Republicans are breaking turnout records and attracting new members. A Douglas County Republican states her dismay very well:

“I am a Douglas County Republican and recently found out that Republican voters will NOT be allowed to take a straw poll at our caucus for presidential candidates. I don't know if it's the same for the Democrats. According to a Denver Post article, the State GOP voted last year to eliminate straw polls due to some stupid rules with the National GOP. Would you consider doing a story on KUSA about this? I find it appalling that Colorado is the only state that doesn't let its voters have a voice in selecting a presidential candidate.

Iran Nuclear Deal – Still a Liability for President

Barack Obama wanted the seven years of negotiations that produced the Iran nuclear deal to be perceived as his greatest triumph and legacy. Much of the liberal foreign policy establishment agreed with his strategy – right size the U.S.-Middle East commitment and do a deal with Iran on its nuclear ambitions.

Iran has been a significant topic in the President’s State of the Union. He downplayed the successful negotiations in 2016.

But America’s image of Iran remains in deep negative territory, where it’s been since the fall of the Shah and the Iranian hostage crisis. Even America’s well-observed partisanship doesn’t much affect the negative view. Although Democrats are slightly more favorably disposed toward Iran than Republicans, it does not exceed 20 percent.

So the administration’s long negotiations have not shifted attitudes favorably toward Iran. Nor has the Iran nuclear deal become more popular over time. When the agreement was approved last fall, a majority of Americans did not approve it. They still don’t. Gallup reports opposition exceeds support by nearly two-to-one. Partisanship makes a difference, but a majority of independents disapprove and barely half of Democrats approve. And this is after President Obama’s best rhetorical efforts to declare the implementation and prisoner exchange last January a major policy success.

Cuba: One of a Few Obama Policies Americans Like

Gallup reports that for the first time in survey measurement history of the topic, Cuba is now seen in a favorable light by a majority of Americans (54%). It represents a 27 percent increase in favorability since Barack Obama became president (27% favorable in 2008).

Like nearly everything in American politics involving President Obama, opinions are highly polarized. Only 34 percent of Republicans have favorable views of Cuba versus 73 percent of Democrats (Gallup, 1021 adults, Feb. 3-7, ±4.0 percentage points).

In terms of national security strategy and economic value, the Cuban rapprochement is small, but in terms of the foreign policy of this administration, it may end up the high point in public approval. Very few of the administration’s policies or reactions to international crises have been judged by the public as successful.

The President would like to end the trade embargo as he stated in his last State of the Union address, and the American people agree 59 percent to 29 percent (Gallup, Feb. 3-7, ±4.0 percentage points).

Let me give you another example. Fifty years of isolating Cuba had failed to promote democracy, and set us back in Latin America. That’s why we restored diplomatic relations -- (applause) -- opened the door to travel and commerce, positioned ourselves to improve the lives of the Cuban people. (Applause.) So if you want to consolidate our leadership and credibility in the hemisphere, recognize that the Cold War is over -- lift the embargo. (Applause.)

Could Sanders Win Colorado Caucus?

March 1st – Super Tuesday – is not a delegate-rich environment for Bernie Sanders. Colorado and Minnesota have the only caucuses and Sanders’s home of Vermont and Massachusetts are the most liberal states. But most of the territory is southern or border states where Sanders will have to contend with older and more minority dominated Democratic electorates.

Colorado will clearly be a state he hopes to win. Not only are the demographics hospitable, but Barack Obama swept the state early in 2008 on his successful run to the White House.

After Clinton wins in the Iowa and Nevada caucuses, even if near death experiences, it’s clear that Sanders needs some victories to remain viable. Although Clinton’s Nevada win was five points, it was mostly secured in Clark County, with labor delivering minority voters. Sanders was able to motivate a surge of younger voters and some Hispanic voters (according to exit polls) to shift the race from an expected “firewall” blowout for Clinton to a panic attack the last five days.

But, he still has a problem with minority voters, especially middle-aged and older voters who are most likely to participate in party nominations.

A new Colorado poll published by conservative paper, The Washington Free Beacon, claims Sanders is now ahead of Clinton among Colorado Democrats who participate in party primaries. Although, caucus goers will likely be only a modest percentage of total primary voters. (In the last high-profile contest, Democratic Party had 338,000 turnout. If 100,000 caucus on Tuesday, it will be a big turnout.)

A previous poll by Quinnipiac had Clinton ahead by 28 points. So there’s not much doubt that Colorado is a competitive race and Clinton will have a major task to turnout her supporters.

There are 79 delegates, 66 pledged and 13 super delegates (party and elected officials). Peter Blake in Complete Colorado claims nine are committed to Clinton, four uncommitted and zero for Sanders.

Colorado Republicans Senate Race Begins to Assemble

Who will be the Republican nominee against Senator Michael Bennet? The March 1st caucus will begin the sorting process. Out of the long list of names mentioned, mostly self-promoted, only a few will go a caucus route or, if they do, survive Tuesday night.

El Paso, Colorado’s largest Republican dominated county, has four names on the list, including two current county commissioners. Jefferson County has the reputed frontrunner, State Senator Tim Neville, and a county commissioner and state representative.

A few of these candidates will attempt to petition onto the primary ballot scheduled June 28, 2016.

None of the candidates have high-profiles, and some have views appearing too narrow to attract significant support or they will be unattractive to major donors.

Bennet can’t be relaxed about national senate politics in 2016. Not only are there issues that are polarizing this electorate, such as the Scalia vacancy and the Iran nuclear agreement, but neither Hillary Clinton nor Bernie Sanders look like a strong re-election partner.

Bennet, like most incumbents, has a lot of money on hand (more than $7 million) for the campaign. In 2014, the Mark Udall vs. Cory Gardner race spent more than $100 million, with most of it from national political committees.

Bennet’s 2010 election, the year of the Tea Party takeover of Colorado’s Republican Party, was hardly a landslide. He hopes the higher turnout of 2016’s presidential race will help him motivate infrequent voting Democrats and liberals. But the general expectation is for a close race if the Republicans stay out of the weeds with their nominee.

Colorado’s Republican Candidates for US Senate, 2016

Robert Blaha – Businessman
Declared in January 2016. President at Human Capital Associates, a firm that conducts leadership training for businesses. Running in response to the Iran deal, which he strongly opposes. In the 2012 campaign, he put about $775,000 into a losing primary bid to unseat Republican U.S. Rep. Doug Lamborn in the 5th Congressional District. Pledged: “If I am not able to reduce illegal immigration by 50 percent, drastically cut the deficit, and help fix this horrific tax system, I’ll voluntarily leave after one term.”

Charlie Ehler-Retired Air Force Computer Programmer
Tea Party activist. Retired in 2006. Resident of Fountain for 20 years. Number one issue is to balance the federal budget.

Ryan Frazier - Former Aurora Councilman 
Declared December 2015. Previously worked for 9News as a pundit. Frazier last ran for office in 2011, when he unsuccessfully ran for Aurora mayor. He also previously mounted an unsuccessful bid for Congress in 2010 against U.S. Rep. Ed Perlmutter, D-Golden.

Darryl Glenn - El Paso County Supervisor
First to declare ( January 2015). African American lawyer. Retired Air Force Officer, elected twice to Colorado Springs City Council and twice to El Paso Board of County Commissioners. Calls himself a “Christian constitutional conservative.”

Jack Graham – Businessman
Declared in January 2016. Former CSU Athletic Director. Hired Dick Wadhams as campaign manager. No previous political experience, was a highly successful businessman in the reinsurance industry

Jon Keyser – State Representative
Declared in January 2016. 34 year old corporate lawyer. Air Force veteran, Bronze Star recipient and veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan, has said he was largely motivated to run because of Bennet's decision last year to support the administration's nuclear deal with Iran. Lives in Morrison. Resigned as State Rep to focus on Senate run.

Peg Littleton - El Paso County Commissioner 
Declared in January 2016. First elected to public office as a representative to the State Board of Education from the 5th Congressional District in 2004. Former teacher and real estate agent.

Greg Lopez - Former director of the Colorado Small Business Administration
Declared July 2015. Bilingual. Served on the Denver Hispanic Chamber of Commerce board for 10 years, including a year as interim president. Served as mayor of Parker for four years, beginning in 1992 (when he was only 27). When Lopez was running for mayor, he was a Democrat. He changed his party affiliation to Republican in 1994, and ran for the state Senate in 1998. He lives in Elizabeth. An Air Force veteran. He and his wife run GNL Concepts, a consulting firm.

Tim Neville - State Senator
Declared in September 2015. Tea Party. From Florida, moved to Colorado in 1961. Lives in Littleton. Owns an insurance agency. Sponsored Senate Bill 16-017, which would allow concealed carry without a permit in Colorado.

Donald Rosier - Jefferson County Commissioner 
Declared in December 2015. Elected Jefferson County Commissioner (District 3) in November 2010 and won re-election to another four year term in November 2014. Lifelong Jeffco resident.

WorldDenver Event

Monday, February 22nd, WorldDenver is honored to host 7 European visitors at the conclusion of the Denver segment of their U.S. State Department International Visitors Leadership Program (IVLP) titled “U.S. Foreign Policy Challenges.”

Mr. Floyd Ciruli, from Ciruli Associates, a polling and consulting firm that specializes in public policy, will provide a brief introduction and frame current events before the start of the informal discussion. The conversation could include international topics such as the U.S.’s role economically and militarily overseas, as well as domestic issues such as the 2016 presidential campaign, gun control, gay rights, the role of women in the economy, and the recent legalization of marijuana use in the state and other issues.

International guests include:

• (Austria) Mr. Mehdi HAMIDI FAAL - Foreign Affairs Writer/Reporter, Austrian Press Agency and Wiener Zeitung (daily) 
• (Bulgaria) Ms. Miroslava GATEVA - Chief Foreign Policy and International Affairs Expert, National Council, Bulgarian Socialist Party 
• (Estonia) Ms. Aari LEMMIK - Director, International Cooperation Department, Ministry of Defense 
• (Germany) Ms. Viktoria DUEMER - Foreign Policy Editor, Bild (daily) 
• (Latvia) Mr. Andrejs ELKSNINS - Member of Parliament (Harmony Party) 
• (Netherlands) Mr. Marno DE BOER - Political/Defense Editor, Trouw (daily) 
• (Romania) Ms. Veronica ANGHEL - Foreign Affairs Advisor, Department of Foreign Affairs 

When: Monday, February 22nd 2016
Time: 4:00 pm - 5:30 pm
Location: Rocky Mountain PBS Building, Teleconference Room, 1089 Bannock Street Denver, CO 80204

Public Divided on Court Vote

Less than a day after the passing of Antonin Scalia, partisan war broke out. But, it’s not just Washington that’s divided. The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows the public is nearly evenly split, with 43 percent who believe the Senate should vote on the President’s replacement nominee and 42 percent who believe the seat should remain vacant.

And no one will be surprised in the stark partisan differences in viewpoint.