Balance of Power – Coffman and Perlmutter

9KUSA’s Brandon Rittman had Congressmen Mike Coffman and Ed Perlmutter describe the incompetence that drove the VA hospital from $600 million to $1.7 billion.

If Senator Michael Bennet gets the nod for Democratic vice president, Rittman may have provided a preview of the 2016 senate race: Coffman vs. Perlmutter.

See 9News Balance of Power: VA hospital goes critical

L to R: Rep. Mike Coffman, Rep. Ed Perlmutter and Brandon Rittiman
Photo: 9 KUSA

Harry Reid is Out; Bennet is Up

Democrats want to win back the U.S. Senate in 2016, but they need to hold two seats while winning five. It just got harder to hold Nevada. Harry Reid, after 30 years, has quit.

Reid was going to be in a very tough re-election, and now it’s an open seat.

Reid’s retirement reflects that difficult re-election, his recent health problems and the loss of the majority, substantially due to years of his partisan obstruction. Nearly every Republican running in 2014 ran against Harry Reid’s senate leadership

Michael Bennet will now be the Democratic senator most endangered. Will the Nevada change motivate a strong Colorado Republican to get into the race? The D.C. super PAC believes Bennet can be beaten, but it will take a very good candidate. With the exception of Mark Udall’s 11-point win in 2008, Colorado senate races have been won by 5 points or less.

California Ready for Marijuana?

Mark Baldassare, one of California’s best opinion researchers and head of the foundation-supported think tank, Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), published his latest poll showing 53 percent of Californians believe that marijuana should be legal, the highest reported percentage in the last five years (2010). Among likely voters, 55 percent favored legalization, which is the percentage it passed by in Colorado in 2012. Numerous advocates and entrepreneurs are attempting to get a recreational marijuana proposal on the California ballot in 2016. Legal marijuana was defeated in California in 2010 and Governor Jerry Brown remains skeptical.

California Gov. Jerry Brown

The PPIC poll also showed:

• Gov. Brown has a 55% approval rating after his easy November re-election – about 10 points higher than President Obama’s national approval, but the same as his California approval.
• The public hasn’t bought off on the Governor’s $68 billion high-speed rail project, only 47% favor it and 48% oppose it.
• To get more state funding, 52% support the university system capping tuition, a Brown position, with only 18% saying give the UC money even if they raise tuition. Twenty-seven percent wouldn’t give them any more money period.

Iranian Agreement – Produce It, Then Sell It

The administration is responsible for both the substance and the politics of the Iranian nuclear negotiations. The deal will have a series of critical terms and compliance metrics that various experts and interest groups will weigh in on. Elite opinion will be critical as the deal’s elements unfold. It is unlikely to receive overwhelming acclaim or condemnation. And, there will be follow-up and aftershocks. The following is a brief review of some of the stakeholders and the current American public opinion environment.

American Public

A majority of the public could support a deal, but it will need to appear credible on its face and have substantial elite and interest group support.

• Terrorism moved up on list of major public concerns in 2014.
• Iran has had slight image improvement, but still near top of enemy list with Russia and North Korea. Very little trust.
• Public supports negotiations, but not convinced they can stop Iran bomb making intent.
• Sees Iran with a bomb as a threat and will support military action.

Democratic Party’s Stressful Support Hillary Clinton

The Democratic Party establishment and rank and file support Hillary Clinton’s nomination. But, as the recent e-mail controversy highlights, it’s not without its stress.  Hillary Clinton comes with baggage:

• She and her husband have been involved in various controversies, many of their own initiation, some not, since their entry into national consciousness in 1992.
• Hillary escaped the Clinton zeitgeist as Secretary of State, but her re-entry into partisan politics has been weak.
• Claims of financial hardship,
• Hundreds of thousands in speaker fees,
• Big foundation salaries from CGI,
• Solicitations from the mega rich and foreign governments for CGI,
• And, her conducting public business on a private communication system

Hillary Clinton

But, the Democratic Party has few alternatives and many reasons to ride with Clinton regardless of any doubts.

• The Party’s identity politics has prioritized a women president. Powerful Senate and House feminist leaders will not be denied their turn – Pelosi, Boxer, Mikulski, etc. nearing or at their retirement – intend on securing the nomination for Clinton.
• Clinton has earned Democratic support for more than two decades of service on women and liberal issues.
• She got 48 percent against Obama and, but for some bad luck and an inept campaign, would have been the nominee and president in 2008.
• A Democratic third term will be difficult. But Clinton is not just most likely the best candidate, she may be the only plausible candidate – Biden and Kerry are even more burdened by their relationship with Obama. Gore would be a Democratic nightmare. The ambitious Warren and O’Malley are unknown, untested, and mostly far left in an election that is unlikely to move to the left of Barack Obama.

So regardless of baggage and a stumbling start, Democrats are hard-pressed to not be “ready for Hillary.”

Ciruli Has 3,000 Followers

In Russia, when a blogger attracts 3,000 or more regular viewers, they become a potential threat to the state. In America, we celebrate it and issue a press release.  When The Buzz began in 2008, it was the continuation of a political website started in 2000 at a time when George W. Bush was carrying Colorado during the Republican dominance of the state.

The first blog post began a discussion of “the factors that led to the beginning of what may be a Democratic era” (posted Dec. 22, 2008). That first year there were only six postings, but as political events locally and globally have heated up, the number has gone up every year since – nearly topping 300 in 2014.

As of March 23, 2015, we’d posted 60 analyses so far this year, and they are now shared with more than 3,000 followers on Facebook and elsewhere.

Reading through the six years of headlines provides a political history of an extraordinary period in contemporary Colorado politics. Colorado has become a swing state with all the excitement and attention it brings. It’s been an incredible seven-year run of interesting politics as Colorado has risen to an unprecedented position of political power.

Welcome to all the friends, readers, re-tweeters and commenters.

Fracking Still a Problem for Democrats

Americans are divided over hydraulic fracturing. The latest Gallup poll shows 40 percent favor the process and 40 percent oppose it. The parties are polarized, with 66 percent of Republicans supporting it but only 26 percent of Democrats. More than half of Democrats oppose it (54%), but only 20 percent of Republicans.

The problem for Democrats is that their leadership does not agree with the rank and file. They favor it. The most dramatic example of the disconnect was last summer and fall when Colorado Democratic leaders, led by Governor Hickenlooper, strongly opposed ballot initiatives seen as fracking bans.

Very likely if one or more anti-fracking initiatives were proposed in 2016, Democratic leaders would again oppose them. They are currently attempting to design compromises that will address the issues of many opponents. But, given the public division and extreme anti-hydrocarbon advocacy groups in- and out-of-state, it seems unlikely a compromise is possible or a ballot issue can be avoided.