Adams County Asks Voters 3 or 5 Commissioners?

The image of Adams County government collapsed under the weight of corruption charges and aggressive news coverage from the Denver Post.  It cost one commissioner party re-nomination and another is retiring.  As part of a wide-scale effort to remodel county government and rehabilitate its reputation, a series of reforms were proposed by the county manager and approved by commissioners.

One of the reforms is to ask voters their preference for the number of county commissioners – three or five.  Voters, in our latest survey for Adams County, were very concerned about corruption (84%), but undecided on adding commissioners.

Denver-based Ciruli Associates found that nearly 47 percent of county residents somewhat supported or strongly supported an increase in the number of commissioners from three to five. About 550 Adams County residents were polled in the survey.

There will be a campaign for and against adding commissioners, with Republican Commissioner Erik Hansen (former mayor of Thornton) leading the charge in favor.  Hansen had the good fortune to be a new commissioner untouched by the politics of Brighton.

See Our Colorado News:  Survey tracks concern about county leaders

Loss of Confidence in Public Education May Hurt DPS

As Denver Public Schools considers asking for hundreds of millions of new money, the national backdrop of public education is not positive.

The Gallup research organization, which has a long track record in measuring Americans’ viewpoints about public education working with supporters, just published its latest survey showing confidence in public education has hit a new low of only 29 percent.

Confidence in public schools collapsed in the last fifty years, from 58 percent to 29 percent.

Although Democrats are slightly more confident in schools, in fact, only one-third (36%) claim a “great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence.

Schools now tie the criminal justice system and are behind the military, small business, organized religion and the presidency in public confidence.  They are ahead of unions, banks, organized labor and TV news.

Unfortunately for public schools, they are associated with organized labor, which fared even worse in public confidence.

Although the Denver Public Schools has most of the problems of urban school districts, it has fought visible battles with unionized anti-reform forces and mostly won.  But, with confidence in most public institutions low and the economic recovery slow, the expensive proposal the DPS citizens committee recommended may have to be aggressively trimmed by a more realist school board.

See:

Gallup:  Confidence in U.S. public schools at new low

Gallup:  Democrats more confident in labor; Republicans in business

Denver Post:  Denver Public Schools may ask for $500 million property tax increase

Will Colorado Pass Marijuana Legalization?

A new Rasmussen poll indicates legalization of marijuana in a “similar manner to the way alcohol and tobacco cigarettes are currently regulated” has majority support both nationally and in Colorado.

At least one initiative legalizing small amounts of marijuana for recreational use will be on the Colorado ballot.

Recent national polls have shown near or slight majorities for legalization (Rasmussen 56% and Gallup 50%).

However, in an early May survey (non-robo poll) of California voters found only 46 percent supported legalization, about the percentage legalization received in the 2010 defeat of a statewide legalization initiative.

Opponents to Colorado legalization have just started to organize behind Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck.  Proponents have already raised more than $2 million to get the initiative on the ballot.

See:

Rasmussen:  61% in Colorado favor legalizing, regulating marijuana

Rasmussen:  56% favor legalizing, regulating marijuana

Los Angeles Times:  Most California voters don’t support legalizing pot, poll finds

Michelle Obama More Popular Than Husband

First Lady Michelle Obama had a 66 percent favorability rating in a national poll during the 2010 election.  The average in recent polls is 65 percent.  The recent visit to Pueblo was a hit.

Her husband’s favorability in 2010 was in the 40-percent level, and is now averaging 52 percent favorable.

Interesting that more Americans claim to have heard of Sarah Palin than Bill and Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.

See Pueblo Chieftain articles:

First lady in town today

Behind every great man…

Will the Polls Move?

After a difficult start in June, will President Obama’s approval rating drop?  His rating recovered to the upper-40 percent range since January after hitting the low 40 percent range during much of 2011.

Following Real Clear Politics’ approval index since Obama’s January 2009 inauguration describes a great start (62% approval on February 1, 2009) to the lows in late 2010 when the Democrats lost the House of Representatives (46% approval November 1, 2010).  The killing of Osama bin Laden in 2011 caused a surge in May (52%), but, in general, the President has remained below 50 percent approval since late 2009.

However, compared to presidents Carter and George Bush Sr., he did not descend to below 40 percent as they did in their failed re-election efforts.  (Both had 39% approval ratings in the April of election years.)  Democrats have mostly remained supportive and he’s received a sufficient percentage of independents to avoid a collapse.  Obama begins his final election push vulnerable, but with sufficient approval to win.

The key question is after the terrible couple of weeks, will his approval rating drop and will he fall behind Mitt Romney in the head-to-head polls, who he has led consistently since Romney secured the nomination (post Rick Santorum’s dropping out).  On June 1, Gallup reported a 48 percent approval to 48 percent disapproval and he was only one point up over Romney (46% to 45%).

Europeans Pick Least Hardworking and Most Corrupt

The Pew Research Center has just published a poll of citizens in eight European nations concerning views of the European Union.  There were 9,108 respondents in the month-long survey completed on April 16, 2012.

The conclusions were that European unity was being severely strained by the economic crises.

One of the most interesting and humorous aspects of the otherwise rather bleak results of the survey were the answers to questions which asked respondents to rate the countries, including their own, as most or least hardworking and most and least corrupt.

All countries, except Greece, believe Germans are the hardest working.  The Greeks believe they are.  The least hardworking reputation was shared by Greece and Italy.  The Greeks thought the Italians were and the Italians said the least hardworking were Romanians.

Italy dominated the most corrupt category, even the Italians agreed.  But, many countries elected themselves – Greeks said Greece, Poles said Poland and Czechs said Czech Republic.

Finally, the Germans were judged the least corrupt, even by the Greeks.

There Will Be No Significant Third Party Candidate in 2012

With the collapse of America Elects, the only well-funded effort to mount a third party campaign in 2012 has ended.  Although upwards of 5 percent of the presidential vote will be syphoned off into a myriad of third parties, they will be only a footnote in the race.

Since 1980, only Ross Perot in his 1992 effort was able to draw a significant vote.  Colorado tends to provide third party candidates a higher percentage than they draw nationally.  It typically gives third party candidates 5 to 10 percent of the vote.

Of course, there are a few occasions, such as 2000, when the strategic placement of third party votes can make a difference in an election.  Had Ralph Nader’s votes in Florida gone to Al Gore, he would have been president.

Two new Colorado polls that show the election is tied or two points for Obama (Rasmussen 45% to 45% and Purple Strategies 48% to 46%).  Both polls show most voters making a choice between the major party candidates.  However, neither poll offered an unnamed choice or don’t know.

Of course, there is always the possibility of a Greek-style election.   If a substantial number of voters become disenchanted with both party candidates, they could fragment to obscure third parties.  That is a very remote possibility.  Lower turnout among the disenchanted is more likely.

Also see Rhodes Cook:  Americans elect to stay with two options