Steadman Not Happy

Senator Pat Steadman is well-known as a congenial go-getter who is making progress on civil union legislation.  But, he stressed out last week and called the Denver D.A. a villain and snake for disagreeing with a drug bill of his.  D.A. Morrissey offered a mild retort questioning Pat’s professionalism, and he probably wasn’t that angry given Snake Plissken may be one of the greatest law enforcement officers in popular culture.

Government Dysfunction Top Concern for Denver Metro Voters

In a new metro poll conducted by Ciruli Associates, government dysfunction was a top concern.  Denver area voters rated jobs and economy their number one concern, but government gridlock, corruption and extreme partisanship held second place, before the budget deficit and spending, health care and education.

With presidential approval below 50 percent and Congress below 20 percent, the 2012 political process is likely to remain volatile and the public in a surly mood.

Water a Key to Economic Sustainability

Since the 2002 drought, Coloradans have been especially supportive of the twin goals of water conservation and water storage.

After 10 years of sufficient moisture, including two recent very wet years where every reservoir was filled, Colorado is entering another period of drought.  Most water storage and development is initiated locally, and currently there is more than $3 billion in projects in construction or planning, mostly along the Front Range.

In recent years, the state has weighed in with a river basin grassroots process that has the state’s interest groups and interested citizens talking about the major collective decisions concerning protecting Colorado’s share of the Colorado River and stretching the water we have.

In a recent speech with the Southwestern Colorado Water Conservation District, reported in the Durango Herald, water leaders from the four corners came together to discuss the state’s effort.

“Colorado continues to grow, with an additional 4 to 5 million residents expected by 2050, Ciruli said.

If all identified water projects are completed, there still will be a gap between demand and supply of 190,000 acre-feet, he said.

The gap could be as much as 630,000 acre-feet if projects fall through, he said.

Projects are moving ahead, but the solution to satisfying demand will be a combination of conservation, storage, reuse and mostly new supplies, he said.

‘People are saying that it’s time for implementation,’ Ciruli said.  ‘It’s time to get moving.’

Ciruli cited a 2011 report by the Inter-Basin Compact Committee to the effect that a status quo approach won’t work.

Water storage, preserving agriculture and making sure Colorado water isn’t appropriated by other states are important to Colorado residents, Ciruli said.

‘There’s worry about out-of-state interests,’ Ciruli said.  ‘Polls show that residents want us to secure our water, to stay ahead of the problem.’”

See Durango Herald:  Colorado water gap needs attention, consultant says

Colorado Republicans Still Divided

Party enthusiasm is up in spite of the race being over.  A huge crowd of Colorado Republicans fought over a small number of national convention spots Saturday, a week ago.  Because President Obama swept the state in 2008, Republican seats were reduced from four years ago.

The Republican state convention (April 14) shows the party is still divided over control of the state party and the nomination system.  Although Rick Santorum quit midweek, his supporters joined with vocal Ron Paul supporters and took about one-half the delegate slots to the late August Republican national convention in Tampa.

It was a combination of Santorum’s supporters wanting to go to Tampa and a desire to keep the conservative message strong.  There will be considerable negotiating with Romney’s establishment forces prior to and during the Republican convention. 

Santorum surprised Romney by winning a plurality of Colorado caucus attendees February 7.  It reflects that there is a wing of the party that emerged in strength in the 2010 caucuses and primaries and continues today.  Its members and leaders are very conservative and mostly non-metro.

“Everyone could see it was coming, but the timing was a little abrupt for us,” said Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli.  “Santorum did it because of Pennsylvania – he wanted to get out before he lost – but out here, it means that Republicans only have a few days to cut their deals.”  (Washington Times, 4-12-12)

Mitt Romney is the presumptive nominee and has more than one-half the delegates he needs and will roll up big majorities in the next round of events – April 24.

See Washington Times article:  Santorum’s Colorado delegates are at sixes and sevens

Santorum Quits – April 11, 2012 Race Over

Rick Santorum finally recognized the fate of his campaign and suspended it (April 10, 2012).  Mitt Romney’s immediate challenge will be to unify the Republican Party, which has been fractured by the long and bitter primary.

As Santorum quit, national polls showed he had a quarter of the Republican rank and file.

Romney has struggled through a volatile season.  Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich and Santorum had the lead sometime since August.  And, in early 2011, the party flirted with Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump.

Romney’s 41 percent support as his last major challenger quits is low for a candidate securing his nomination.  He beats George McGovern in 1972 (30%), but was behind the next lowest performer – Carter in 1980 (48%).

National polls show President Obama and Romney running within three points, with nearly equal percentages of their respective partisan loyal (47% to 44%, RealClearPolitics.com).  The latest Gallup tracking poll has Romney up 2 points.

Both candidates have to be concerned about enthusiasm and turnout.  Republicans had a reported advantage, but it mostly dissipated in the long primary battle.

See Gallup polls:

Romney 42%, Santorum 24% as Santorum Exits

Romney, Obama in tight race as Gallup daily tracking begins

Obama Beats Romney of 14 Points in Denver Metro Area, But “Other Candidate” Major Force

President Obama begins his campaign for re-election with 44 percent of the Denver metro vote, far below his vote in 2008 (61%) or his 54 percent statewide win over John McCain.  In a new Ciruli Associates poll, Obama has a 14-point advantage in the Denver metro area over Romney, but it is largely a product of 17 percent of voters preferring some “other candidate.”  While he won the state by 9 points in 2008, he was winning a landslide 29-point victory in the metro area, taking every county except Douglas.

Mitt Romney’s first challenge will be to unify the Republican Party.  The poll, completed the day rival Rick Santorum quit the race, had 18 percent of Republicans picking “other” for a candidate.  (Gallup reported that Santorum had 24 percent of Republicans nationally supporting him at the end of his campaign.)

Although a number of polls have shown Obama ahead in swing states and a recent Colorado PPP robo poll has Obama ahead of Romney by 13 points statewide, 52 percent to 40 percent, most analysts believe if the national race is close, Colorado will be within a couple of points (see latest Gallup poll: 45% Obama to 47% Romney; and New York Times:  46% Obama to 46% Romney).

In the metro area, Obama has unified his base, receiving 89 percent of Democrats.  Romney only gets 67 percent of Republicans.  Also, Obama is carrying independent voters by 12 points.  An “other candidate” is selected by more than one-quarter (27%) of independents, suggesting there is room for a third party candidate in Colorado.

The survey of the seven-county metro area voters was conducted by Ciruli Associate for the blog, The Buzz, using RDD probability sampling with 500 voters from April 6-10, 2012 (±4.4 percentage points).

RTD’s FasTracks Tax Proposal has Weak Voter Support in Metro Area

RTD’s proposal to double its sales tax dedicated to the FasTracks transit program begins with 49 percent support in the Denver metro area.  It has only a three percent lead against a committed opposition.

Nearly one-third (30%) of metro voters “definitely oppose” the tax increase and only 17 percent “definitely support.”

The Ciruli Associates question in this survey used a historical context of the revenue provided for the project since its 2004 inauguration.  Previously, polls have shown people like transit, especially light rail, and would like the system built out quicker.  But, the decline in trust in government makes RTD and its ability to manage finances and the project an issue in this election.

FasTracks has two-thirds of Democrats (65%) offering support, but barely one-third of Republicans (38%).  Only two-fifths (41%) of independent voters support the tax increase.

Voters in the two counties that should receive the most benefit from the next phase of transit expenditure, Adams and Boulder, are among the least supportive of the tax increase.  Even Denver is only mildly supportive.

The survey of the seven-county metro area voters was conducted by Ciruli Associates for the blog, The Buzz, using RDD probability sampling with 500 voters from April 6-10, 2012 (±4.4 percentage points).