RTD Cuts Buses and Builds Rail

RTD, which is suppose to be the region’s bus service, cuts that service, but wants to double its sales tax revenue to build more high-priced rail (Denver Post headline of August 18, “RTD staff calls for increased fares and service cuts”). Is there something wrong with this picture?

RTD admitted again that its financial projections were unreliable. Its service increases were “not sustainable and its cost and revenue projections inaccurate and heading toward ‘looming deficits.’”

So, the people that most need transit and the system that is the most accessible – namely the buses – will be cut, while the massively over-priced and underfinanced rail system can continue.

Should we double RTD’s sales taxes in 2012?

Shaffer Challenges Gardner

Although the lines haven’t been drawn and at least some maps leave him out of the 4^th CD, Senate President Brandon Shaffer has already started a campaign against Republican incumbent Congressman Cory Gardner.

Shaffer’s strategy is to label Gardner as extreme as former Congresswomen Marilyn Musgrave, defeated in the Democratic sweep of 2008.

The latest Gallup national poll shows, using a generic ballot question, Democrats are seven points ahead in the election.  A recent Democratic robo poll in Colorado shows Democrats up five points.

Shaffer’s strategy is no doubt recommended by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which encouraged him to run and targeted the district for a pick-up.  And, of course, the new district boundaries will shape the race.  But, Gardner is not Musgrave and 2012 is not 2008.  President Obama is in the low forty percent approval, and is unlikely to be any help in Colorado.

Gardner does have to be concerned if voters decide to toss all congressional pols out.  Gallup reports that 70 percent of voters take that view in a generic question, although 54 percent say they would re-elect their own congressperson.

Also see Colorado Independent article:  Shaffer-Gardner battle will test Colorado’s transitioning 4^th District

Channel 9 Leads the Denver Market

The May sweeps show why Channel 9 gets about one-half of all the political advertising in metro Denver.

Among the big three network stations in the very competitive (and very lucrative) 10:00 pm news hour, 9News has 47 percent of the viewers.  Its partnership with the Denver Post on several hard and soft news items also adds to its clout.

Aurora’s Mayoral Race Attracts Money and Candidates

The two top candidates for mayor of Aurora have raised more than a million dollars. An open seat and Aurora remaining a friendly city for developers has attracted big money and some tough competition.

Steve Hogan is ahead in the money race, but Ryan Frazier is running close. A recent poll has Frazier in the lead. Frazier’s advantage is name identification and partisanship. He was the Republican standard-bearer in a recent high-profile congressional race.

Hogan is trying to be the establishment candidate (he has senior Tauer’s support) and has collected a substantial amount of developer money. Both Hogan and Frazier have had a hard time finding a serious political job. Who finally makes it?

See Aurora Sentinel article: With no incumbent running, ring full of Aurora mayoral hopeful hats

New Poll Shows “Bright Colorado” Losing

As pointed out in a previous blog, “‘Bright Colorado’ Faces Poor Prospect,” the proposed state sales and income tax increase for education – called Bright Colorado Initiative – has dim prospects.  And, a new Democratic robo poll confirms that tax begins with more opposition than support.

The collapse of the economy and growing anger with government makes a November tax increase even less likely.  With it usual smart timing, the teachers union just endorsed the tax increase.  While not a surprise, it’s clear they only reluctantly came to the table, and may still not spend much money.  Recent polls show teachers union support is often a net negative in terms of its affect on the electorate.

What is the education establishment’s motivation for endorsing a long-shot campaign?

Obama Approval 46% in Colorado

A Democratic-leaning robo Colorado poll gave President Barack Obama just 46 percent approval during the first week of August.  It claims independents lean against him 38 percent to 56 percent.

A Gallup poll of Obama’s first six month had his Colorado approval at 44 percent on average.  His current national approval has been sinking since the credit ceiling debacle, and is now down to about 40 percent.  His disapproval is consistently higher than approval.

For analysis of the Gallup January to June 2011 poll, see my blog of August 12 – Obama 44% to 48% approval in Colorado

Hickenlooper for President

A national Democratic robo polling firm reports Governor John Hickenlooper has a 54 percent approval rating with Colorado voters.  They speculated that since he had the third highest approval among the Democratic governors they tested, he is a potential presidential candidate in 2016 – a little premature.

Neither Senators Michael Bennet nor Mark Udall broke 50 percent approval. Hickenlooper’s distinguishing characteristic is his stronger support among Republicans (34% approval) due to some conservative positions, such as budget cutting and his non-partisan image.

A couple of points. Fifty-four percent support is not high for a Colorado governor. Roy Romer and Bill Owens often had approval ratings in the high fifties. But, of course, those were times when we were less polarized and angry with politicians. In fact, Hickenlooper during his term as Denver mayor regularly had an approval and favorability rating in the 70-percent range, both in Denver and in the metro region.

This poll leaned eight points Democratic, more than registration or the November 2010 electorate (PPP poll – 41% Democrat, 33% Republican; registration – there is a 102,000 Republican active voter registration advantage; 2010 exit poll – 33% Democrat, 28% Republican).

See:

Pueblo Chieftain – Hickenlooper scores high on poll

Public Policy Polling – Colorado loves Hickenlooper, Bennet would rout Buck in re-do