Wildfire is Threat in All Five County Supervisors’ Districts

Wildfire is especially threatening to areas that interface with natural areas and indeed a new Orange County (“OC”) poll by Ciruli Associates shows the east side residents closer to canyons, open spaces and mountains believe wildfire is the county’s top environmental problem (51% countywide and 66% in District 3). But more than two-fifths of residents, county wide believe wildfire is a major problem and the smoke and pollution it produces are threats of major concern.

Although OC is a mostly suburban county, the interface with open space, forest areas, and ravines is widespread. And, of course, smoke and pollution during wildfire season impacts the entire county.

The survey concerning wildfire was conducted for an association of Orange County fire agencies and conservation groups by Ciruli Associates with YouGov America. The survey of 1000 residents was fielded from July 20 to August 27, 2023. It had a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.

Colorado’s 2024 Congressional Battles from Border to Border

Twotwofourtysix, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons

Although the presidential campaign will skip over Colorado, one state Donald Trump’s toxicity is well established, there will be a host of contests in its eight congressional seats. Lauren Boebert’s 3rd CD is a national target, the newly open 4th CD will be a Republic primary battleground and several other seats will be in play. The following is a rundown as of mid-December 2023.

Wildfire and Drought Evade Partisan Differences

Orange County Coast

A new survey in Orange County (“OC”) shows that the public’s rating of wildfire and drought as the two most important environmental problems in the county is not impacted by partisan identification. Not surprising, climate change, which is rated third, displays a 43-point difference between Democrats and Republicans, with OC registrants of “no party preference” (NPP) positioned in between the partisans.

As the mayor of San Clemente, California, said, loss of sand and wildfire brings our community together. Extreme weather events are creating conditions for policy makers to invest in prevention and mitigation strategies.

The survey concerning fire prevention and mitigation was conducted for an association of Orange County fire agencies and conservation groups by Ciruli Associates with YouGov America. The survey of 1000 residents was fielded from July 20 to August 27, 2023. It had a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.

For more information contact Floyd Ciruli at fciruli@aol.com

Lahaina Raises Wildfire Awareness

Waiola Church in Lahaina, Photo: Matthew Thayer/The Maui News via AP, File

Wildfires in California, due to their scale, duration, and frequency, are high in the public’s awareness. In a late July early to August survey in Orange County, wildfires were second among the three top-rated environmental problems identified by residents. After the news reporting of the Lahaina fire in Maui on August 8, the wildfire response jumped 11 percentage points and moved wildfires ahead of drought/water supply, as the top environmental problem.

If extreme weather events such as drought and wildfire continue, public concern and desire for action will increase.

The survey concerning fire prevention and mitigation was conducted for an association of Orange County fire agencies and conservation groups by Ciruli Associates with YouGov America. The survey of 1000 residents was conducted from July 20 to August 27, 2023. A total of 573 interviews were conducted before the fire was reported on August 8, 2023, and 427 after. It had a margin of error of ±4.8 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.

The Next Governor

Gov. Jared Polis | Photo: RJ Sangosti/The Denver Post

It’s early in Jared Polis’s term. He was just reelected in a landslide in 2022 but it is his final term and Democrats will be considering who next. This year will not be considered Polis’ best. Democrats must have some concern that their legislative super majority is beginning to produce a noticeable split between the far left and more moderate wing of the party. Of course, a mostly disabled Republican party may not recover by 2025. A brief, early review of potential candidates for the Democratic nomination:

Attorney General Phil Weiser
Assumed to want the job. Considered a frontrunner. Won with an 11-point spread in 2022. Hardworking and good fundraiser. Has had some high-profile cases. More low-key personality. Moderate left image. Good for general election, not for primary.

Secretary of State Jena Griswold
National profile as democracy defender and foil to Donald Trump’s election denialism. Won reelection with 13 percent spread. Greatly disliked by Republicans but would be strong in Democratic primary.

Denver Mayor Mike Johnston
Probably too soon, 2025, to consider a run for statewide office. Has a full plate of difficult issues.

Congressman Joe Neguse
One of Colorado’s two 2018 congresspersons with election prowess and a broader aspiration. Already a part of House Democratic leadership. Would be formidable candidate.

Congressman Jason Crow
Served as House impeachment manager. Got a national profile during the January 6 attack on the Capitol. Represents powerful south Denver suburbs.

Senator Steve Fenberg
Top legislative leader as majority leader and President of the Senate. However, 2023 was a disaster with the failure of Polis’ land use legislation and Prop. HH. Not a moment for a step up.

Far Left Party
Social justice and socialist wing of the party is demanding attention and will likely be active in the 2025-26 primaries. Who will be its candidate?

Proposition HH Still Bedevils Democrats

Aurora City Council member Françoise Bergan | Photo: Timothy Hurst, The Denver Gazette

Appreciating property values feels good until assessments are adjusted and tax bills come due. After a period of record appreciation, Governor Polis and the Democratic legislature proposed Proposition HH, offering some tax relief and a lot of funding to K-12 public education from TABOR refunds. The public said no by 20 points on November 7. However, shortly after the election, a repackaged Prop. HH (WSJ 11-28-23) was passed by the legislative majority in a special session.

Will a new version have political consequences? The original did last November. Article by Pam Zubeck for CSIndy, November 14, 2023.

“Floyd Ciruli, a political consultant based in Denver, tells the Indy that Proposition HH was basically a gift to Republicans to draw out voters who historically oppose tax hikes. Those voters (Republicans voted in greater numbers in El Paso County than did unaffiliated voters and Democrats) then impacted down-ballot races and ballot measures.

“The governor helped the Republicans find an issue they could all rally around and ignore some of their recent divisions,” he says. “It was a TABOR tax election.”

“While debates over how to deal with crime dominated the election in Denver and Aurora, it’s more difficult to find support for criminal justice facilities, including courthouses, jails and, in Colorado Springs’ case, as police academy,” Ciruli says.

“The public wants to be protected, but they really do hate to pay for it,” Ciruli says.”

Nov. 7 election sees tax measures fail, more right-wing school board candidates installed | News | csindy.com

California Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024

Katie Porter, Adam B. Schiff and Barbara Lee | Photo: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call

Schiff Starts Last Three Months with Edge

The latest polls confirm a tight race among three powerful congresspersons for Diane Feinstein’s U.S. Senate seat. Adam Schiff has several advantages as the race enters the last three months. Somewhat surprisingly, his main challenger, Katie Porter, came in a weak third in the Democratic Party’s state convention behind Barbara Lee, the very liberal Berkeley congressperson and Schiff.

The latest polling shows Schiff and Porter trading off frontrunner positions. However, Schiff has a multimillion dollar fundraising advantage with $32 million cash on hand to $12 million for Porter and $1.3 for Lee.