Clearing Homeless Encampments is a Crisis from D.C. to Venice Beach

A new

Homeless encampments on Connecticut Avenue NW, in Dupont
Circle, Washington D.C. | Tyrone Turner/WAMU

Washington Post poll shows 75 percent of D.C. residents support shutting down large homeless tent encampments. The support crosses age, income and racial groups. Mayor Muriel Bowser’s program has drawn the ire of homeless advocates, the ACLU and some local politicians. But, they are isolated voices. The public is not supportive of their position.

In Los Angeles “amid deep frustration over widespread, visible homelessness,” more than half of voters “want the government to act faster and focus on shelters for people living on the streets, even if those efforts are short-term and fall short of permanent housing” (57% short-term solutions to 30% long-term housing) (LA Times and LA Business Council Institute, 12-21). Ninety-four percent of residents believe homelessness is a “serious” or “very serious” problem, 79 percent said homelessness has gotten worse and 20 percent said they have considered moving out of their neighborhood because of camps. They associate it with crime and a less safe environment.

Homeless encampment along the Venice Beach boardwalk,
May 2021 | Dania Maxwell/Los Angeles Times

Every candidate running for LA mayor to replace Eric Garcetti has made homelessness their top issue. They have been forced to address the issue in a political environment of deep skepticism due to previous promised solutions and commitments of hundreds of millions of dollars for housing and programs providing little improvement.

Even California statewide politics is being affected by the public’s concern about homelessness. A February poll by Berkeley IGS shows that homelessness and crime are areas of greatest criticism for Governor Gavin Newsom as his approval sinks and now barely exceeds disapproval (48% approve, 47% disapprove). Two-thirds of California voters believe Newsom is doing a “poor” or “very poor” job in handling the issue of homelessness up 12 points since 2020.

Democratic controlled jurisdictions are unhappy with their leadership and it’s shaping the hostile environment the party is operating in during 2022.

Read The Buzz: Homelessness is Becoming a Political Crisis

China-Russia Friendship – Any Limits?

Moscow and Beijing have declared their opposition

to further enlargement of NATO and to the formation of

other regional security alliances | Li Tao/Xinhua/Getty

Join Japanese and American professors on March 10 as they examine the tensions and challenges arising in the Indo-Pacific region, including the China-Russia entente and the impact of the Ukraine crisis.

The Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research and the Consulate-General of Japan in Denver are continuing their program of bringing Japanese foreign policy experts together with their counterparts at the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies.

In a panel moderated by Floyd Ciruli, Director of the Crossley Center, the participants are:

• Akiko Fukushima – Senior Fellow of Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research
• Tsuneo Watanabe – Senior Fellow of Sasakawa Peace Foundation
• Suisheng Zhao – Professor, Director of the Center for China-U.S. Cooperation

Some of the questions that will be considered:

• What does the China-Russia pact mean for the Indo-Pacific?
• Does Ukraine and the Western response harm or strengthen Taiwan’s security and independence?
• North Korea has started missile tests again. What is the strategy for diplomacy and deterrence after the Trump administration?
• President Xi Jinping is likely to win another term. What does it mean for diplomacy and security in the Indo-Pacific?

Japan and U.S. Relations in Light of New

Administrations and Challenges in the Indo-Pacific

Join the Conversation
March 10, 2022
3:00 pm MT

REGISTER HERE

The Crossley Center’s public engagement programs aim to attract thought-leaders and policymakers with diverse perspectives and backgrounds to participate in an informed and civil public conversation. The purpose is to give DU audiences and Coloradans an understanding of the major influences affecting their politics and policies.

Rally Effect for Biden

The first poll since the State of the Union shows what I expected. Biden was going to benefit from a rally effect from Ukraine and the confluence of good news delivered around the State of the Union. He received an 8-point rally effect in an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll since their last poll in February. Democrats were up 11 points and independents 10 points. Even Republicans bumped up 4 points. If this rally is confirmed with additional polls or is sustained over time remains to be seen, but it was welcome news for Democrats.

Issues

Biden’s approval went up handling three main issues: Ukraine, pandemic and the economy.

• Ukraine: Up 18 points to 52%. Democrats went up 27 points, independents 17 points.
• Pandemic: Up 8 points to 55%.
• Economy: Up 8 points to 45%.

Speech

The speech itself last Tuesday (3-1-22) was popular among the who watchlist (71%). It was judged making people feel optimistic (67%) and proud (53%) (CBS News poll). Of course, the audience tends to be more interested in politics and government and favorable to the speaker, but Biden needed a boost with supporters and appears to have received it.

President Joe Biden delivers his State of the Union address,
March 1, 2022 | Saul Loeb/Pool/Getty Images

Read The Buzz: Will Biden Get a Bump From Putin?

U.S. Unity on Russia as Threat. Divisions on NATO.

NATO activated the NATO Response Force for
collective defense and deterrence, Feb. 2022 | NATO photo

Even before the invasion of Ukraine, a mid-February (Feb. 17) poll of Americans showed 59 percent rating Russia a critical threat. This was a jump from 44 percent a year ago and a 10-point rise from the 49 percent who rated them a critical threat after the seizure and annexation of the Crimea in 2014-15.

Nearly nine in ten Americans (86%) have an unfavorable view of Russia, up 25 points since 2014. The approbation is bipartisan, with 74 percent of Republicans and independents seeing them negatively and 84 percent of Democrats.

But Gallup reports a partisan difference on both judging NATO as doing a good job and maintaining a commitment to it. In terms of its job performance, 65 percent of Republicans believe it’s doing a poor job whereas 70 percent of Democrats believe it’s doing a good job. The overall public is divided in half, with 48 percent rating its job performance good and 45 percent saying bad. 

Although a majority of Americans support the alliance – 65 percent favoring maintaining or increasing the commitment to NATO – even here, there are significant partisan differences. More than two-out-of-ten Republicans would withdraw entirely from NATO and another 28 percent would decrease the U.S. commitment to it (50% total) whereas only 13 percent of Democrats and 28 percent of independent are in that category. Eighty-one percent of Democrats would increase the NATO commitment, but only 46 percent of Republicans would do the same.

Will Biden Get a Bump From Putin?

Sudden increases in presidential approval from international events have become more muted and rarer recently due to the U.S.’s polarized politics. The last major jump in presidential approval was for George W. Bush in 2001 after 9-11 (34-point bump). President Obama’s bump was very modest and short-lived in 2011 after Osama bin Laden was killed (May 2) (6-point bump).

Could President Joe Biden benefit from a rally effect? His approval has been at or below 40 percent for weeks. Any bump would be welcomed by Democrats. There are a couple of reasons a bump could be possible.

• Sympathy for Ukraine and president Zelensky has surged. Republicans moved the most with independent voters toward seeing Russia as a threat and President Putin as a bad person.
• Biden’s performance has been judged, if not inspiring, as steady and the right tone for the stakes and the risk. He advocated alliances and international cooperation from his State of the Union address and the sanctions have been forceful
• Europe, recently passive, has come alive to the threat and united in helping Ukraine beyond even optimistic expectations. Biden gets some credit for that.

I told Ron Brownstein before the State of the Union that the contrast with Donald Trump’s pro-Russian statements and Vladimir Putin becoming the face of a cruel dictator could benefit Biden.

Floyd Ciruli, the director of the University of Denver’s Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, says the global outrage over Putin’s invasion has triggered a “wave” of support for nations linking arms to support democracy and resist aggression. “At any of these moments in national tragedies or threats, you need the whole wave moving in the right direction” to lift a president, Ciruli told me. “This is a very tough time; we are very polarized, and there is obviously going to be criticism from Republicans. But nonetheless I do think he has a wave, and if he can ride it well in the next few days, it benefits him.”

President Biden delivers his State of the Union address on March 1, 2022 as
Vice President Kamala Harris (L) &Speaker Nancy Pelosi listen | CBS NEWS

Russia Threatens Nuclear War Again

In 2015, a year after Russia seized the Crimea, President Vladimir Putin announced in a television production celebrating the annexation that he was prepared to raise the alert status of his nuclear forces if there was a military reaction from the West.

Hence, his actions in 2022 are not new or a surprise. The Crimea action was a fait accompli. The West and specifically the U.S. took no military action. Now, however, Europe, the U.S., NATO and the numerous democratic states in the world are protesting the Ukraine invasion in real time. Many European states are supplying lethal arms to Ukraine defenders, which is unnerving for an anxious autocrat who wants a quick win.

The Biden administration’s response to Putin’s nuclear saber rattling is to excoriate it as mostly “unprovoked escalation” and “manufactured threats” and state that America’s deterrent is always at a high alert level.

DEFCON

If the U.S. actually believed nuclear weapons were to be used in a region or worldwide, it would raise its alert status, which, along with greatly alarming world leaders and the public, would change the movement and preparation of submarines and bombers.

On three occasions the U.S. alert status; i.e., DEFCON (Defense Readiness Condition), has been raised. The closest moment to nuclear war was in the tense days of the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 when President Kennedy and Premier Khrushchev faced off over Cuba, President Nixon raised the status in the Yom Kippur War in 1973, and President George W. Bush put the U.S. at DEFCON 3 after 9-11.

Read The Buzz: Nuclear Weapons and the Kremlin

Does Ukraine Affect the Security and Independence of Taiwan?

Japanese and American professors and policy leaders will begin a month-long program on the tensions and challenges arising in the Indo-Pacific region, including the impact of the Ukraine crisis.

The Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research and the Consulate-General of Japan in Denver are continuing their two-year-old program of bringing Japanese foreign policy experts together with their counterparts at the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies to discuss the changing conditions affecting the U.S. and Japanese alliance and the peace and prosperity of the Indo-Pacific region.

Some of the questions that have become more salient in the last year:

• How does the Russian-Chinese relationship affect conditions in the Indo-Pacific?
• Do events and the Western response in Ukraine harm or strengthen Taiwan’s position?
• North Korea has started missile tests again. What is the strategy for diplomacy and deterrence after the Trump administration?
• President Xi Jinping is likely to win another term. What does it mean for diplomacy and security in the Indo-Pacific?

Three new panels are scheduled in March. More details will follow.

1. Thursday, March 10 - Japan and U.S. Relations in Light of New Administrations and Challenges in the Indo-Pacific
2. Wednesday, March 16 - U.S., Japan and South Korea Roles in Maintaining a Free and Open Indo-Pacific
3. Wednesday, March 23 - Position of Taiwan in U.S., Japan and China Relations

Japan and U.S. Relations in Light of New
Administrations and Challenges in the Indo-Pacific

Join the Conversation
March 10, 2022
3:00 pm MT

REGISTER HERE

The Crossley Center’s public engagement programs aim to attract thought-leaders and policymakers with diverse perspectives and backgrounds to participate in an informed and civil public conversation. The purpose is to give DU audiences and Coloradans an understanding of the major influences affecting their politics and policies.