Boomers Dominated the Primary. Help Give One of Their Own the Prize

The Baby Boomers, now spanning 56 to 75 years old, are only 28 percent of the national electorate, but were 43 percent of the Colorado primary voters, and with their older cohort, the Silent Generation (75 and older), were more than half the electorate (56%). Polls showed John Hickenlooper (68 years old) benefitted from the nostalgia vote, winning his biggest percentage from Boomers and older.

The often discussed Millennials and the new Generation Z together only represented 22 percent of the primary voters. (They were well under their potential according to Pew Research; i.e., 37%). But, they were a bigger share of the Democratic vote, representing 27 percent. Not surprising, the Republican electorate was older – two-thirds were the Boomer and Silent cohorts (67%, Democrats were 51%) and only 14 percent Millennial or younger.

As typical of electorates around the country, women were better represented than men by 54 percent to 46 percent. Again, no surprise, they were an even larger percentage of the Democrats (57%), or 125,000 more voters than men. Republicans were evenly divided between the genders, with only 2,000 more women than men voting.

López Obrador Comes to D.C. to Celebrate NATFA II - Alone

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) traveled to D.C. last week to meet with President Trump to celebrate the implementation of the NAFTA II agreement, first approved in the Clinton administration, and recently revised, now called USMCA, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (ratified in March 2020).

AMLO has lost popularity in recent months (he’s 19 months into his 6-year term) due to the economy, COVID-19 and crime, but is in the upper 50 percent range and more popular than Trump, who hovers in the low 40s. AMLO is taking considerable criticism coming to see Trump. However, he is fond of political theater that confounds his critics and fits his image of an iconoclast.

Also, AMLO will be in D.C. without his northern colleague, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The Canadian, a more traditional politician than AMLO, has a variety of scheduling excuses, but observers believe, like most longtime American allies, is simply avoiding the discomfort of dealing with Trump’s personality, the embarrassment of his likely off-the-cuff comments and the inevitable political criticism at home.

Meeting with Trump will not play well with the citizens of Mexico or Canada, who according to the latest Gallup Analytics Weekly (6-30-20), has extraordinary little credibility in either country.

President Donald Trump and Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez
Obrador hold up joint declarations after being signed during a ceremony in
the Rose Garden of the White House, July 8, 2020 | Al Drago/Bloomberg

Western Wire: Colorado Oil and Gas has Two Friends Running for Senate

Photo: KUNC file

In a long online analysis, Michael Sandoval, the managing editor of Western Wire, concluded that both U.S. Senate candidates are friends of the local oil and gas industry, but that current Colorado politics and national Democratic Party activists are for more regulation and, in some cases, prohibitions of the industry’s activities and products.

His article reviewed the recent Democratic primary, especially from the view of the oil and gas industry. David Flaherty, CEO of Magellan Strategies, and I were interviewed.

Some of my comments:

Ciruli told Western Wire that Hickenlooper’s substantial record and more centrist positioning on oil and gas didn’t seem to matter in the primary, with Romanoff’s attempt to push Green New Deal and climate change positions, including a ban on fracking on federal lands, not appearing to sway the party’s primary constituents, which included unaffiliated voters.

 “Hickenlooper’s substantial win was mostly a reflection of Colorado Democrats and their unaffiliated allies wanting to win, as opposed to just issue positions,” said Ciruli. “Romanoff certainly argued strongly that Hickenlooper was not sufficiently environmentally-oriented particularly on gas and oil.”

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“Hickenlooper hit a number of environmental notes but he didn’t really apologize or change his position at all,” he added. Colorado’s voter landscape and oil and gas industry prominence provided Hickenlooper some room for error. “It’s probably a safer position in Colorado and the Democrats here didn’t mind it.”

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“The polls indicated that most Democrats and unaffiliateds felt his sort of center position was fine, not too far left or too far right. He will be a formidable candidate against Cory Gardner,” said Ciruli.

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Ciruli thinks the former governor could hold a minority position in the Democratic Party come November.

“Hickenlooper on gas and oil in general—the fact that he happens to be a moderate on it is quite clearly a minority position. It’s a minority position in the state, now in terms of the activists and the legislature and the governor, which is much more inclined toward regulation. It was a minority position on the debate stage when he was running for president,” said Ciruli. “By and large, and perhaps in their party platform they will be anti-fracking. He’ll be a voice, but he will be voice at a moment when his party is dominated by anti-hydrocarbon sentiments.”

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The future of Colorado’s Senatorial delegation, currently a split between Gardner, the Republican, and Democratic U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet, and votes for more stringent regulations and climate focus could hinge on the relative campaign and personal attributes of Gardner and Hickenlooper, instead of any strict policy differences, according to Flaherty and Ciruli.

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Gardner’s personal advantages on the campaign trail, from a personal charisma and strong debating style he used to upset the incumbent Democrat, former U.S. Sen. Mark Udall, should still be formidable. However, 2020 provides the Gardner with a strong uphill battle—a mix of external forces and a change in voter behavior that could weigh down the Republican in November, according to Ciruli.

“In a straight-up race I think Gardner could win. He’s been a good senator, he’s brought home a lot of benefits, he deals with things in a bipartisan fashion,” Ciruli said. “He’s a very good campaigner and a much better debater than Hickenlooper, but this is not a straight up race. He’s got the detriment of running with Trump who will probably lose by five points which he did last time, if not more.”

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Voters may want to send a statement, rather than just assess the candidates on where they stand on critical issues, Ciruli explained.

“Trends indicate this is going to be a message vote, not just a vote on the quality of the candidates, which as I said, Cory would probably be very competitive. That’s the challenge,” said Ciruli.

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“Cory will have dollar-for-dollar what Hickenlooper has. If that national race tightens—[Democratic presidential candidate Joe] Biden makes mistakes or Trump finds a message that works or there’s another international incident or national incident that improves his position—the entire Republican ticket will improve. The most recent polls in this state have shown that Gardner and Trump are running at the same point behind by 18 points. Unless that tightens, Cory has an uphill battle, even if we know Hickenlooper is not going to surprise anybody by not being good in a debate. He’s terrible,” Ciruli said.

Reuters: Primary Woke Up Hickenlooper’s Campaign

John Whitesides, writing for Reuters before the primary, captured John Hickenlooper’s likely win in spite of a month-long series of controversies, at least one of which – the ethics violations and fine – will dog him through November. My view was that the campaign appeared slow and unfocused, but that all the controversies woke it up. They were, no doubt, aware of the good polls, which can be like a narcotic for candidates and campaigns.

My quote was:

“Hickenlooper was sleepwalking through this campaign so maybe this woke him up, said Floyd Ciruli, a veteran independent pollster in Colorado.

Although Hickenlooper will start the general election with at least a ten point advantage, like Joe Biden, I would believe it.

Tipton is Gone. Can the Republicans Hold the Seat?

There was a short period in the last 17 years when Colorado Republicans boasted having 5 of the 7 congressional seats. Republican Scott Tipton regained the 3rd Congressional District (CD) from John Salazar in 2010, but Republicans had lost the Western and Northern Denver suburban district to Ed Perlmutter in 2006. In 2018, they lost the Arapahoe and Douglas counties seat to Jason Crow. Today, they are in danger of losing the Southern and Western Slope 3rd CD due to the loss of its five-term incumbent Scott Tipton’s surprise defeat. If that happens, Republicans will have only two seats left.

Historically, the 3rd CD has been a Colorado swing district. It sprawls from Pueblo in Southern Colorado through most of the Western Slope. It had a Republican representative from the 1940s to 1964 and the Goldwater debacle. Then, Democrats Frank Evans and Ray Kogovsek held it until 1984. It then shifted between Republican and Democrat until Scott Tipton won it in the 2010 Tea Party year.

The race was not considered competitive with Tipton as the candidate, even considering Donald Trump’s pending loss in Colorado. Trump won the district by 12 points in 2016 while losing the state by 5, and Tipton beat the newly designated nominee, Diane Mitsch Bush, by 8 points (52% to 44%) in 2018, a very poor year statewide for Republicans. But without the incumbent, the district’s history of oscillating between the parties became more plausible. The district tends to follow its own light. The last Democrat to win, John Salazar, captured the 3rd CD in 2004 as George W. Bush won the state by 5 points. But, he lost it in 2010 in the Tea Party backlash, even while Democrats John Hickenlooper and Michael Bennet won their races for governor and senate, respectfully.

Tipton was beaten by Lauren Boebert, a gun-packing Trump advocate and bar owner from Rifle. Most observers attribute it to her public relations ability (challenging Beto O’Rourke, refusing to shutdown), hard work and an alignment with the district’s most conservative values. Tipton’s sparse campaign did not take her seriously enough.

The Denver Democratic establishment thought the district needed a change and endorsed businessman James Iacino. But local Democrats preferred a rerun with Mitsch Bush.

This time around, can Mitsch Bush run closer in Mesa, stronger in La Plata, win the Latino Rio Grande Valley and bring Pueblo back into the Democratic column? If so, the race could be competitive. Boebert is colorful and will be a favorite of the conservative media, broadcast and digital, but is she too extreme for regular Republicans and moderate unaffiliated voters? Expect a high-profile, expensive, competitive race.

Colorado Senate Race 2020: Expensive and Negative

The November and Senate election ballot is set. Former Governor John Hickenlooper will take on Senator Cory Gardner in what will be a Colorado record spending campaign that has already started negative and will continue nonstop.

Interesting, both candidate were on the ballot in 2014 with Hickenlooper’s reelection and Gardner’s upset win for Senate. Both races were close.

The following are some early observations on the next three months:

• Expect record turnout. Colorado’s convenient ballot system, the presidential race and a flood of newly eligible unaffiliated voters will increase participation.
• Very expensive. $10 million was spent in a not especially contested primary, mostly from national sources. With control of the U.S. Senate at stake, expect tens of millions to flood in on both sides. The expenditures will have lulls, but will not cease until Election Day.
• Driving up your opponent’s negatives before Labor Day is a well-established campaign rule, and it was visible in 2014 and has already started in Colorado, much of it by outside groups. The primary provided the Republicans much material, but President Trump tends to make life difficult for incumbents that need to appeal to an electorate broader than just his base. 
• Advertising will dominate as neither candidate will be very accessible. Hickenlooper is a gaff machine, both candidates will attract protesters, and Gardner wants to avoid commenting on Trump’s tweets and random behavior. Gardner needs the debates, assuming he starts behind in the polls; Hickenlooper will want to limit them. Both candidates will blame the pandemic.
• It is assumed Gardner is behind and “the most vulnerable senate incumbent” up for reelection. He will need Trump to close the race nationally and he will want his race to be a Colorado choice and not a referendum on Trump. Gardner believes his record of delivering for the state, bipartisan efforts and campaign ability will give him an edge in a head-to-head race with Hickenlooper. Hickenlooper hopes the shift in Colorado politics and Trump on the ballot will form a blue wall. But, he will stay on the attack on core 2020 issues of the economy, pandemic, race relations, plus the usual Democratic agenda that tends to match with Gardner’s views, such as on guns.

Record Turnout in Smooth Running Election

The 2020 primary with Colorado’s convenient mail-back ballot system and encouraging participation from the state’s largest bloc of unaffiliated voters exceeded the turnout in the competitive two-party race for governor in 2018 by more than 300,000 votes (1,171,000 in 2018). This year, only Democrats had a competitive race for senate, but still 565,000 Republicans voted for a total 1,577,347 votes (Secretary of State claims 1.6 voted, but a few have not been posted as of 3:00 pm, Wednesday, July 1). The state’s mail-back system can handle presidential-level turnout as it did in 2016 (2.6 million).

As of 3:00 pm Wednesday, 509,422 unaffiliated voters participated, with more than 300,000 voting in the Democratic primary. It made up much of the difference in the Republican and Democratic totals and points to the challenge Republicans will have in November if they can’t shift unaffiliated voters to a more even split.

Presidential years attract greater registration and voter participation. More than 1.8 million voted on Super Tuesday. But, a lot of credit goes to John Hickenlooper’s early stumbles. More than $10 million was spent in broadcast and digital ads, most of it for Hickenlooper. Big money tends to track with bigger turnout. It helped him hold the lead people assumed he had, but appeared to be losing by the ethics controversy and gaffs.

This report will be updated as the Secretary of State releases more data.