Sanders Makes Best of Harsh Reality

Bernie Sanders, 25 points behind Joe Biden and with no real chance of winning the Democratic nomination since March 3, Super Tuesday, gives it up on April 8. Sanders will stay in the race through the remaining primaries to take his thousand or so delegates to the Democratic Convention (virtual?) to lobby the platform and remain a player. Biden and the party will continue to give Sanders a wide berth, hoping to get a unified party by early September. However, they must guard against appearing too close to his more rigid ideas and supporters.

Biden starts the race against President Trump about 7 points ahead in the RealClearPolitics average, but the contest is closer in key states, such as Pennsylvania (up 3 points) and Florida (up 1 point). Most national projections see a close electoral vote fought, especially in 10 to 12 battleground states.

Biden’s challenge is to lead a party that is primarily unified by a desire to defeat Trump, but divided over some of the basic approaches to governing and specific policies.

Former VP Joe Biden (L) and Sen. Bernie Sanders greet one
another by bumping elbows before they participate in a Democratic
presidential primary debate, March 15, 2020 | Evan Vucci/AP

Read The Buzz:
Biden Moving Toward Delegate Majority. Does Sanders Stay In?
The Resurrection of Joe Biden. What Happened?

Flood of Colorado Ballot Initiatives Now on Hold: Coronavirus Changes Politics

After an all-time high number of citizen initiatives were filed with the Secretary of State to gain access to the 2020 ballot, the coronavirus has stopped most of them, many before they even attempted to gather signatures. Already on the ballot are propositions to negate the Democrats effort to remove Colorado from the Electoral College, the reintroduction of wolves and a citizenship requirement to vote. But dozens more, including limits on abortions, a progressive income tax, a preschool funding tobacco tax, the perennial limits on oil and gas drilling, paid leave and a plethora of mostly liberal initiatives, are in limbo.

Ballot advocates and the signature industry saw 2020 as a perfect year for high voter turnout to back new proposals. The virus is a blow to their ambitions. All states with citizen initiative access to the ballot are dealing with the same issues and, of course, advocates are arguing for online petitioning and extended deadlines. However, Coloradans have not been anxious to crowd the ballot with initiatives. In 2016, Colorado voted by 57 percent to make it more difficult to get to the ballot or pass constitutional initiatives (Proposition 71).

In comparison, California, which requires 623,212 valid signatures, allows a mail-back petitioning, but soliciting them is a huge, expensive process that has not been fully implemented, tested and perfected. Coronavirus has also tied up a host of California proposals that may not make it, such as $5.5 billion for stem cell research, increasing medical negligence damages, and regulations for dialysis clinics.

From Brokered to Virtual Convention, Coronavirus Changes Politics

As 2020 began and early caucuses and primaries showed a closely divided Democratic Party, the political buzz focused on how a brokered convention would work. It was scheduled for mid-July, early to get ahead of the Olympics. That conversation ended on March 3, Super Tuesday, as Joe Biden swept through 10 out of 14 states and became the frontrunner and presumptive nominee. It was confirmed in several mid-March follow-up primaries.

The Democratic convention has already been moved from July 13-16 to August 17-20, and now contingency plans are being discussed on shifting to a virtual convention where delegates may hear the speeches on television and vote online and by phone. Conventions tend to be staged ceremonial events, and this one was effectively over for more than a month, which Bernie Sanders confirmed Wednesday. The only question left is whether the party can unify its differences of opinion to take on President Trump in November.

Sen. Bernie Sanders | Photo: Scott Eisen/Getty Images

Former VP Joe Biden | Photo: CNN

Denver Post: Coronavirus and Colorado Primary

In The Spot: The Denver Post’s newsletter, Justin Wingerter (4-2-20) considers the impact of the coronavirus on Andrew Romanoff’s and John Hickenlooper’s primary campaigns.

Romanoff wins while no one watches

Wingerter quoted the blog post (3-7-20) that the coronavirus has frozen the primary process and made it very difficult for Romanoff to get any traction from his wins in digital and phone-in assemblies.

“Along with freezing the primary process just as rivals needed visibility from rallies and party activities, the issues have shifted from the Democrats’ left-center divide to competence,” Ciruli wrote last week. And Hickenlooper’s executive experience shows competence, he argues.

See:
The Buzz: Democratic Primary: Is it Over?
Colorado Politics: Pollster Ciruli asks if the Democratic primary is a done deal

John Hickenlooper speaks with Denver Democrats after a forum in Denver,
Oct. 26, 2019, that featured the eight candidates seeking the nomination to
challenge U.S. Sen. Cory Gardner in 2020 | Ernest Luning/Colorado Politics

Andrew Romanoff on the campaign trail for U.S. Senate | Photo: CleanTechnica

Visiting Japanese Professors and Officials Highlight Successful Crossley Center Winter Program

The Crossley Center and the Korbel School hosted a program of visiting Japanese professors and government officials in early 2020. The timing of this program was fortunate. Had it occurred even a week later in March, most events would likely have been cancelled due to the coronavirus. The final presentation with Professor Koji Murata was held on March 3, 2020 with an audience of more than 130. It was one of the last large events at the Korbel School campus, which is now entirely online.

The events with Professor Murata and Foreign Ministry official, Noriyuki Shikata, were scheduled in early February and early March and were well attended by a total of more than 300, including Korbel School students and community opinion leaders. Extensive online promotion was conducted by the sponsor organizations, reaching more than 5,000 online by email and via Facebook and Twitter. Panel participants, experts on Asia and U.S. foreign policy, U.S. domestic politics and U.S. and world public opinion were Ambassador Christopher Hill, Office of Global Engagement; Professor Suisheng Zhao, Center for China-U.S. Cooperation; and Dina Smeltz, Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

One of the important features of the program was the collaboration with the Crossley Center, the Center for China-U.S. Cooperation and the Office of Global Engagement. Another unique aspect was the support of the Japanese Consulate of Denver and the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs alongside the Korbel School and the University of Denver.

The program met its goals by facilitating an informed conversation among Japanese and Colorado experts on the primary factors that influence the Japan-U.S. alliance. The dialogues dispelled some misperceptions and clarified Japan’s foreign policy for American audiences.

The following are a few of the most salient topics discussed in the three presentations.

• There are many opportunities for cooperation between the U.S. and Japan, and Asia in general. Japan has been working diligently to improve relations and reduce miscommunications with China.
• Japan advocates an Asian policy that supports democracy, human rights and freedom of navigation. It works with the EU countries to enhance peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region.
• The Japan-U.S. alliance is strong and stable, and the relationship between Prime Minister Abe and President Trump is sound. Abe is one of his few friends on the international stage.
• The American public supports the alliance with Japan and the bases in Japan, and has a very favorable view of Japan.
• This is a period of tremendous change and disruption of long-established norms in the West concerning America’s leadership role, the promotion of democracy, free trade and alliances. Some of the change reflects deep worldwide trends and others are based on recent Western leaders and parties. 

In general, the program provided thought leaders an opportunity to share ideas and opinions, and provided considerable information to students and the public.

Prepared by Floyd Ciruli, Director, Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research

Hellish Bad Quarter – Bear Market Starts and Recession and Record Unemployment on the Way

As 2020 began, Democrats were divided, President Trump survived impeachment and the Dow was 500 points from 30000, with unemployment at a historic low – 3.5 percent. From mid-January when the coronavirus impact on China’s economy came into focus, to the end of the quarter when 50 percent of the world’s population was under some form of limited movement, the market entered into bear territory, and the world’s economy plunged into a slowdown at least as large as the 2008 Great Recession.

The Dow fell into a bear market on March 11, made a slight recovery, but ended the quarter down 23 percent (20% drop for bear market). A recession is expected as first quarter GDP collapsed with no, even modest recovery seen starting until late summer (two quarters of negative GDP growth). Unemployment was 10 percent in 2009 (9% in Colorado), and is likely to be at least as high in weeks or faster.

Although Congress has passed three multi-trillion dollar aid packages and the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates and injected trillions into the financial system, there is a strong sense the economic pain will be deeper and longer than what we experienced in the Great Recession.

President Trump now faces a new environment without the benefit of the record Dow and low unemployment. He has substituted a Rose Garden strategy of daily White House briefings for his rallies, but the setting frequently puts him on the defense for the early misstatements and subsequent frequent missteps.

It’s not just the economy that is gridlocked, but the pandemic has also frozen the political process, including how campaigns and primaries are conducted and potentially national conventions. Both major party candidates will face a series of challenges, including a political system struggling to provide a fair and competitive election from Labor Day to November 3, 2020.

Authoritarians Use Virus to Extend Power

Populist demagogues and authoritarians are using the pandemic as an excuse to increase their power and silence critics. The most high-profile head of state seizing dictatorial power due to the coronavirus is Viktor Orbán, prime minister of Hungary and head of nationalist Fidesz Party. The grant of near absolute authority to rule by decree has no clear procedure for relinquishing the power and draconian punishment for anyone who “distorts the truth” about the government’s effort to fight the pandemic or save the economy.

But Orbán is hardly alone as Russia, Turkey, Israel and India are among the countries led by nationalist populists adding to their control. Simultaneously, China and Russia are spreading fake news on social media, especially in Europe, to undermine the unity of the EU. The mostly ominous posts extol the effectiveness of the authoritarians in dealing with the pandemic and claim democratic countries and the EU are failing.

What the authoritarians know and contribute to by their propaganda is the public’s dissatisfaction with democracy and elected officials. In a 2019 Pew poll in 34 of the most significant countries with democratic process, 52 percent of the world’s public said they were dissatisfied with democracy versus 44 percent satisfied. Elected officials did even worse with 64 percent saying officials didn’t care what people like themselves think and half didn’t believe the state was run for the benefit of all. For democracy to survive, it must address these attitudes immediately. Unfortunately, the U.S., which was the world leading advocate for democracy, has relinquished that role.