SCFD’s 30-Year Anniversary

One of America’s most extraordinary cultural funding organizations, the Scientific and Cultural Facilities District (SCFD), is celebrating its 30-year history in an event on November 28 at the McNichols Civic Center. As part of the celebration, Rocky Mountain PBS has created a program highlighting the founding of the SCFD.

Governor Roy Romer signed the legislation creating the District on July 1, 1987, with supporters gathered around his desk. In November 1988, 75 percent of Denver metro voters in six counties authorized the collection of the sales tax, producing about $14 million for distribution to regional cultural organizations starting in 1989. Today, more than $60 million will be distributed.

Picture from RMPBS

Ciruli Associates was the primary consultant for the creation of the SCFD. It managed the initial campaign in 1988 and the subsequent renewals in 1994, 2004 and 2016.

Thanks to RMPBS, the SCFD and the Citizens for Arts to Zoo (CATZ) (a civic organization that supports the SCFD) for their support of the 30-year celebration. Ciruli Associates provided the historical material for the RMPBS program.

Sex Abuse Scandal Causing Massive Damage to Church – Colorado Archdiocese on the Offensive

The reputation of the Catholic Church is suffering massive damage from the sex abuse scandal. Opinion of the church and its priests and bishops from both the public at-large and among Catholics has been harmed.

A new Economist/YouGov poll shows that 54 percent of the public now has an unfavorable view of the Catholic Church. Even 28 percent of Catholics now have a negative opinion of the Church.

When compared to the public’s views on churches in general, it’s easy to see how much lower the Catholic Church’s reputation compares.

In a series of questions, the poll identified the key elements of the scandal for the Church:

• 33% of those raised Catholic no longer view themselves Catholic (in this survey 25% of public were raised Catholic, 18% call themselves Catholic)
• 44% believe “many priests abused children and teenagers”; 30% of Catholics agree 
• 30% believe many priests are abusing children now, 15% of Catholics agree
• 44% say “most or all” bishops were aware of serial abuse, 43% of Catholics agree
• 28% believe Church is now mostly trying to cover up serial abuse by priests rather than protecting children, 18% Catholics

The Denver Catholic Archdiocese was at least 10 years ahead of the U.S. Bishop’s Conference in dealing with the problem. In 1991, Archbishop, now Cardinal Stafford, started mandatory reporting of abuse to law enforcement authorities. Programs for victims were initiated. Archbishop Chaput continued and extended the programs assisting more than 50 victims of priests (who were deceased). Archbishop Aquila joined the effort to focus on preventing future abuse with a zero tolerance policy.

Nationally and locally, procedures in seminaries are being stepped up to ensure healthy priests and policies are enacted to ensure accountability and transparency in misconduct of cardinals, bishops and priests.

The archdiocese has been highlighting their response in a series of high-profile articles in the Denver Catholic (the old Register). The September 22-October 12 Denver Catholic described Pope Francis’ effort to deal with the scandal with a worldwide session of bishops next February. In a Q&A, Scott Browning, an attorney for the Archdioceses of Denver, Philadelphia, Los Angeles and St. Louis, provides a factual background on the history of cases in Denver and the current efforts to protect children and detect abuse. It’s worth reading.

See:
The Buzz: Francis – Clean house
Pew: Confidence in Pope Francis down sharply in U.S.

DU Panel of Experts Offer Their 2018 Midterm Predictions

A panel of political experts assembled by the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Denver’s Korbel School reviewed the range of state and national political topics in the 2018 midterm election.

Floyd Ciruli, director of the Crossley Center, leads a discussion with (from left) Republican campaign strategist Dick Wadhams, Democratic strategist Steve Welchert, ballot initiative manager Fofi Mendez, Colorado Municipal League Executive Director Sam Mamet and KOA Radio managing editor Jerry Bell | Joey Bunch/Colorado Politics

In general, the panel perceived 2018 as having advantages for Democrats, especially in Colorado. In an article describing the discussion, Colorado Politics reporter Joey Bunch wrote:

Floyd Ciruli, director of the Crossley Center, moderated the two-hour discussion on candidates and issues. He said polls and the decisions by both national parties to withdraw money from the 6th Congressional District race suggest Coffman, the five-term incumbent, also might be in deep trouble as a blue wave gathers.

As with Stapleton, national events could overtake his candidacy. He said the race would have little directly to do with Coffman or his challenger, Democrat Jason Crow, and more to do with Trump and the energy on the left.

“He’s no doubt in trouble, Mr. Coffman, but to say he’s going to lose, I still think is very difficult, because of the amazing ability he’s had to survive in difficult years.”

. . .

The panel convened by the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at DU agreed that Stapleton and U.S. Rep. Mike Coffman, a usually popular incumbent from Aurora, are running in a tough environment for Republicans this year.

Usually Republicans can separate themselves from the national party to appeal to local voters, but President Trump has kept the focus on him, making this midterm a referendum on his politics and antics.

Late Registration Helps Democrats, But Independents Rule

Corey Hutchins of the Colorado Independent reports that September’s voter registration figures benefit the Democrats more than two-to-one over Republicans, but unaffiliated voters beat them both combined (58% of total). As of September 30, unaffiliated voter are 229,000 registrants ahead of second-place Democrats with Republicans in third, about 28,000 voters further back.

The Trump era and Colorado’s recent growth has not been kind to Republicans. At the end of September 2014 when John Hickenlooper ran for reelection, Republicans were ahead of Democrats by 55,000 voters. That edge helped Cory Gardner beat Mark Udall by 39,000 votes.

In the last four years, unaffiliated have added 209,000 new registrants to their rolls, or 59 percent of the total 348,000 new voters. Democrats beat Republicans in new registrants by more than three-to-one over the last four years to gain their current 28,000-vote advantage.

Coffman: Out of Reach?

Politico reported on September 28 that the House Congressional Leadership Fund, the PAC controlled by Speaker Paul Ryan and the leadership, has labeled the Mike Coffman race as “out of reach” and moved $1 million in TV advertising to other more winnable races.

Five-term Congressman Mike Coffman’s district has drifted to the left in the three elections since 2012 when Barack Obama won the district by 18,000 while Coffman beat the Democrat by 7,000. More spectacular was his victory in 2016 by 31,000, while Hillary Clinton was winning his seat by 34,000.

But today, polls and national pundits believe his reelection is in serious trouble. The respected Cook Political Report now rates the race “lean Democrat” from “toss-up.”

• The only current non-partisan published poll from the New York Times and Siena College reports Democrat Jason Crow has an 11-point advantage, 51 percent to 40 percent for Coffman.
• Two new partisan polls have the district at 11 points for Democrat Jason Crow (from left-leaning PAC) and 1 point for Crow from a respected Republican firm.
• Nate Silver’s eponymous 538 gives the Democrats an 82 percent chance of winning the district from a calculation that includes partisanship and voting history of the district, campaign funding and challenger’s experience.
• The Democrats have been pouring money into the district, but are now so confident their House Majority PAC has withdrawn some funds to place elsewhere.

Coffman’s problem in 2018 is more than the district’s shifting partisanship. His image of independence and moderation was overwhelmed by congressional action of repeal but no replace health care, a series of fatal gun incidents with children (and his strong NRA support), Republican fumbling with DACA and border security, and mostly just Donald Trump occupying all the political space, taking away even the most talented congressperson’s room to maneuver.

Can Debates Get Stapleton in the Race? – KOA Radio Interview

Six televised gubernatorial debates are scheduled over the next four weeks beginning this Friday. A new poll shows Republican Walker Stapleton is behind by 7 points, which is about where the race was at the primary in late June.

Stapleton must change the dynamics of the race to have any chance to win. Voting will begin on October 15 as ballots are mailed to 3.2 million registered voters.

Oct. 5 – CBS4, KOA, CPT12 and Colorado Sun
Oct. 6 – Grand Junction Daily Sentinel, Colorado Mesa College and RMPBS
Oct. 8 – Pueblo Chieftain
Oct. 13 – Gazette and KOA
Oct. 17 – 9News and Fort Collins Coloradoan
Oct. 23 – The Denver Post and ABC7

These were among a number of observations offered during the Marty Lenz and Ed Greene interview.

Is Colorado Now Blue? A Panel of Political Experts Predict.

Has Colorado shifted from its swing state status of a more reliably Democratic state? The last three presidential elections, new registration figures and 2018 primary turnout has trended Democratic. But Colorado voters still split their tickets.

Voting starts in mid-October. Join a panel of the state’s political experts who will discuss the Colorado and national political environment just before voting starts.

Along with the national election, they will discuss the Colorado governor’s election and partisan change in the balance in the state legislature, as well as significant ballot issues on fracking, school and transportation funding.

Ask the experts.

The Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research is hosting a panel of top Colorado political experts on the election. The panel, called “Colorado Politics in 2018: A Transformative Election,” includes:

Panel Discussion: Colorado Politics in 2018: A Transformative Election 

Moderator: Floyd Ciruli, Director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, Josef Korbel School of International Studies

Panelists:
Dick Wadhams – Republican campaign manager and former State Chair
Steve Welchert – Democratic campaign manager
Fofi Mendez –Colorado lobbyist and ballot initiative manager
Jerry Bell – Managing Editor of KOA Radio
Sam Mamet – Executive Director of the Colorado Municipal League

Tuesday, October 2, 2018

Program: 4-6 pm

Reception: 6-7 pm

University of Denver Campus

Anna and John J. Sie International Relations Complex

Room 1020

2201 S. Gaylord St., Denver, CO

Event FREE, but space limited

RSVP to: Karen Hayden at 303.871.4374 or email to Karen.Hayden@du.edu

Floyd Ciruli, director of the Crossley Center, will moderate the panel. It is sponsored by: Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research