Denver Entering a New Political Season

Denver, Colorado’s largest city and county, holds elections in May of odd-number years. The goal was to separate the elections from partisan politics. That mostly happened, but it also isolated it from voter awareness. Without a significant mayoral contest, the election and candidates disappear.

As the Denver Post’s Jon Murray records the seven new councilpersons are the largest changeover since 2003 when a new mayor, John Hickenlooper, joined many members of this year’s retiring council.

These twelve years have been busy with a major recession and budget cuts and a host of contentious issues (homeless ban, police and sheriff settlements), but Denver mayors and council have mostly worked together on big issues and received voter support for major initiatives, such as a new justice center, the half-billion dollar bond package in 2007 and the recent TABOR override.

City government and the business community have had a close working relationship for several decades. It has served Denver well. Denver has continued to grow in terms of jobs and sales tax revenue because, in spite of its left orientation on social issues, it tends to be moderate on tax, regulations and unionization.

Denver Post: 

But the new members have varied backgrounds, and political analyst Floyd Ciruli says Denver's council has tended to strike a moderate chord as a whole.

He sees the councils of the past three terms as typically defined by cooperation, between the members and with mayors — John Hickenlooper and, now, Michael Hancock. The latter is a former councilman who served with several of the outgoing members.

"There were times when the Denver City Council and the mayors would argue a great deal," Ciruli said, with mayors holding the upper hand in Denver's system. "And that really has not characterized, in my opinion, these 12 years."

See:

Denver Post: Big decisions dominated terms of departing Denver council members

Bennet has Good Summer, But Next Year Depends on Clinton

Michael Bennet has had a good summer. Republicans have not recruited a strong senate candidate or even identified one as of the middle of July and the party is dealing with its own internal disputes. President Obama has had an exceptional month (Gallup, Fox News and Economist/YouGov have him at or about 50% approval) and the Republican presidential field has been upended by Donald Trump, who is now running first or second in the three recent national polls (USA Today/Suffolk: Trump 17%, Bush 14%; CNN/ORC: Trump 12%, Bush 19%; Fox News: Trump 11%, Bush 15%).

Sen. Michael Bennet and Hillary Clinton

But, Bennet is hardly home free. It’s 15 months until the election and Cory Gardner, the Republican 2014 winner, did not enter the 2014 senate race until February 2014. Most importantly, in recent years the alignment of the presidential and senate elections in swing states has grown. Today, more than 80 percent of voters are selecting matching parties for president and senate. Of course, if the Republicans have a weak and poorly funded candidate, it could well ensure a loss, regardless of how Ms. Clinton does in Colorado, but if the state remains competitive with only a few points between the respective presidential nominees, Bennet is likely to be in a very close race, even given the advantages he appears to be building.

Due to the Republican Party’s struggles in Colorado, Politico has just lowered Bennet’s vulnerability to 9th from their previous 7th.

In its latest rating, Politico only kept Colorado in its top ten list due to the expected competitive nature of the presidential race and because no other senate race appears more competitive (note Politico  ranks Arizona 12th).

See The Buzz:
U.S. Senate – Washington Post Ranks Colorado 7th
The West in Play; Colorado, Nevada and Arizona in Center of Field

Obama Administration Must Now Sell Iranian Deal

With so much of the Administration’s reputation at risk, making sure the Iranian deal can pass

Congress and not face the hostility health care still faces from the American people is the Administration’s other negotiating goal.

Hence, getting a deal that appears to meet the basic expectations, has the support of the negotiating powers and can hold most of the foreign policy media establishment is essential for public opinion and Congress. As a backup, the Administration is activating its liberal support groups to ensure that if a veto is needed, it can’t be overridden.

The Chicago Council on Global Affairs just completed a national survey of 2,034 adults in June 2015, which showed that although the public favors the negotiations and main deal points of the agreement (59%), they also believe:

• Iran is a significant threat – 57%
• They do not believe it will stop Iran from getting a bomb – 69%
• Support for stopping Iran if negotiations fail:
• Tighter sanctions – 80%
• Use troops to stop nukes – 67%
• If violate, airstrikes – 56%; U.S. troops – 44%

There is more support to stop Iran now than after an agreement. Enforcing an agreement will be a challenge for public opinion and the next administration.

There is significant skepticism that the agreement will stop a determined Iran from getting a bomb, improve the life of its citizens or behave better toward its neighbors.

This president has sacrificed much of the U.S.’s strategic flexibility and friendship with Middle Eastern allies to achieve this agreement. It may be an Obama/Kerry legacy, but it remains to be seen if it is of long-term U.S. or Middle East strategic benefit.

Coffman vs. Carroll: Democrats’ Best Chance to Win a Seat

Democrats will not win control of the U.S. House in 2016, but they have a very good chance to pick up Colorado’s Sixth Congressional seat. An expected jump of more than 70,000 voters from 2014 will be State Senator Morgan Carroll’s greatest asset.

Barack Obama won the district by five points in 2012 compared to Mike Coffman, who barely survived a challenge from an underfinanced, inexperienced Democratic candidate. Morgan Carroll was the Democratic Senate leader for a short time, and as opposed to the Democrats’ 2014 candidate, is a local elected official.

If Hillary Clinton runs as expected, a strong race, accompanied by a well-funded Michael Bennet seeking re-election, the Democratic ticket should be a significant boost for Carroll in the Sixth District. As a woman in a targeted seat, she should have nearly unlimited funding. And as a woman running with Clinton, it could be a good year for women candidates.

Carroll will, of course, have some challenges. She is very liberal and was associated with the controversial and recalled senate Democrats of 2013. She was in charge when her party lost the Senate in 2014. And, Coffman has established himself as an indefatigable and talented campaigner.

This race will start near or at the top of the national list for a competitive seat, and it will be Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s last chance (my fourth consecutive bi-annual prediction she will retire).

New Poll Does Not Show Easy Election for Spread of Marijuana Commercialism

A new poll of Denver voters by marijuana advocates shows a public with little enthusiasm for the spread of marijuana consumption to bars and clubs.

Although advocates emphasize that total support for the initiative was 56 percent, in fact, more voters strongly oppose the initiative (31%) than strongly support it (20%). Voter passion is opposed to the initiative.

The question asked was framed with the initiative language as designed by lawyers and marijuana advocates. It emphasized the limits, not the expansion of commercial use. If opponents were framing the question, it would ask if voters wanted to expand marijuana consumption to bars, clubs and outside spaces. The verb “expand” is different from the verb “allow.”

Also note the 56 percent support is much weaker than the 66 percent recreational marijuana passed by in Denver in 2012.

The marijuana industry may find out Denver voters are cautious toward expanding the city’s reputation as a center for sales and consumption.

See:
The Cannabist: Poll: Denver voters favor limited pot use in bars
Denver Post: Denver councilman: Activists pushing new pot-use initiative are stepping into gap left by city
The Cannabist: Hospitality industry conflicted on social pot use

Germany Much More Respected in Europe than Greece

It has been a strategy of the European left, Prime Minister Tsipras and his government to describe Germany and its leadership, especially Chancellor Angela Merkel and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, as draconian architects of a fourth Reich with its boot on Greece and southern Europe.

Unfortunately for their strategy, public opinion in Europe does not agree. In fact, a poll of a few years ago (Pew Research 2012) asking Europeans to rate countries as hardworking and honest described the Greeks as the least hardworking and Germany the most hardworking and least corrupt. Italy was judged as the most corrupt country. One exception was the Greeks who thought their own country was the most corrupt.

A recent Gallup poll (July 6, 2015) shows that German leadership is highly popular in the European Union. Worldwide, Merkel is as popular as Barack Obama (41% Germany, 45% U.S. approve or disapprove of the job performance of the leadership of….).

See The Buzz: Europeans pick least hardworking and most corrupt

Fighting ISIS – One of the Few U.S. Policies with Global Support

As described in American Troops Will be Fighting ISIS in 2017 (The Buzz, July 8, 2015), the U.S. public is highly supportive of the fight against ISIS (80%, Pew, June 2015). But, so is the much of the rest of the world. A recent Pew Research Global survey shows 62 percent of the public in forty countries around the world support “U.S. military action against ISIS in Iraq and Syria.”

All of Western Europe is supportive of the fight against ISIS, with our most reluctant partner, Germany, at 62 percent. Neither the Ukraine nor Russia are supportive.  The Middle East countries adjoined to ISIS operational territory are supportive of U.S. action against it.

Latin America countries are not supportive, with the exception of Brazil, and even its support is modest.