Nigeria – Africa’s Biggest Democracy Changes Governments Without Violence

On March 28, after a delay of six weeks, Nigeria, Africa’s largest democracy, had a reasonably orderly and largely peaceful election, which changed the governing party for the first time in 16 years.

President Goodluck Jonathan and his PDP (People’s Democratic Party) lost by more than 2.5 million votes to former military dictator (1992) Muhammadu Buhari (APC, All Progressives Congress).

Pre-election polls had considerable variation and Nigerian media outlets like to promote African
soothsayers as much as opinion polls. A couple of credible polls did make clear that the incumbent party faced a very dissatisfied electorate with:

• 74%  saying country going in wrong direction (Afrobarometer with Pew Research)
• 86% say corruption very big problem
• 86% crime very big problem
• 81% electrical shortage very big problem
• 72% Islamic extremism very big problem

In all the major criteria – security, economy and governance – Jonathan and PDP were on the defensive.

Hart Endorses O’Malley

Gary Hart doesn’t opine often from Troublesome Gulch, but when he does, it’s interesting. He

Gary Hart

weighed in on the presidential campaign with some of the first honest talk, most of which is on the mind of many Democrats.

• Too much campaign money needed and spent ($1 billion – minimum)
• Too few qualified, interesting newcomers
• Too much dynasty
• Democrats and Hillary are ill-served by no competition and no specifics

Hart knows Martin O’Malley as a friend and clearly favors him as an anti-establishment underdog, the role he played in 1984 – and he nearly won.

See:
Politico: Gary Hart: Billion-dollar Clinton campaign should ‘frighten’ Americans
The Buzz: Democratic Party’s stressful support of Hillary Clinton

Terrorism Top Issue as 2016 Presidential Race Begins

As the economy has improved and concern about it declined, terrorist incidents and groups and states sponsoring it have moved up in public concern. Gallup reports terrorism is now a top national problem identified by Americans, having increased by 12 percentage points in the last year. The economy and the availability and cost of health care are also listed by more than half the electorate, but have declined in concern during the last year.

National problems tend to track media reports as interpreted and projected by the individual. Health care is likely affected by reports on the ACA. Social Security has not been in the news, but the huge Baby Boom generation is more focused on it as they move past retirement ages.

The size and power of the federal government and income and wealth inequality are among the key political divisions, which both parties express concerns about.

British Election is Up and It’s Close

The May 7 British election appears to be as close as the recent Israeli election, with Prime Minister Cameron’s Conservatives and Ed Miliband’s Labour nearly tied. Neither party is near half the electorate in a system that, until recently, produced a stable two-party government.

Cameron’s current partner, the Liberal Democrats led by Nick Clegg, has collapsed in voter support and is now exceeded by the new independent anti-EU and anti-immigration Independent Party, UKIP, represented by Nigel Farage.

Again, like Israel, governing will require a coalition, and it will likely be less stable than the past and could lead to a significant shift in direction in foreign policy, especially related to European relations, but there will also be strain in holding the nation’s disparate pieces together since a Scottish independence party is likely to win many local seats, most of which were in the Labour camp.

Nuclear Weapons and the Kremlin

While much of the world’s attention has been focused on a rogue state like Iran building nuclear

Vladimir Putin

weapons, the greater threat facing the world, especially the West, is a current nuclear state going rogue.

Russia and its autocratic leader, Vladimir Putin, just announced that on the evening he authorized the surreptitious seizure of the Crimea that he was prepared to raise the alert status of Russian nuclear force to anticipate any military reaction from the West.

Putin and Battlefield Nukes

The revelation came in a television production celebrating the first anniversary of the annexation of Crimea. It follows a number of recent threatening statements and reports that Russian conventional forces are preparing to use battlefield nuclear weapons.

The February 14 edition of The Economist reported that restraints related to use of nuclear weapons have diminished since the Cold War experience and use of nuclear weapons have become a more commonplace part of Russian military doctrine.

It is unclear who Putin thought he needed to threaten with nuclear weapons. There was no force in the West capable of action and no will to engage even if there was an army. But it is Central Europe that should take the threat seriously. When Putin says he could be in Kiev in two weeks, does he think with the benefit of battlefield nuclear weapons he could be on the Oder in a month while German elites are casually quaffing Bavarian lager in Berlin?

DEFCON 3 – 9/11

America pledges to only use nuclear weapons defensively, and on three occasions the U.S. alert status; i.e., DEFCON, has been raised. The closest moment to nuclear war was in the tense days of the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 when President Kennedy and Premier Khrushchev faced off over Cuba. President Nixon raised the status in the Yom Kippur War in 1973, but for many people, it was just another of the regular flare ups in the Middle East. Finally, President George W. Bush put the U.S. at DEFCON 3 after 9-11.

Except for old Cold War arms analysts and patrons of WarGames (1983), most people and nearly all students have little awareness of the concept of DEFCON or nuclear weapons as regular threats in dealing with ambitious and expansionist powers (or in the case of WarGames, a runaway computer program).

Polls, Elections and the Media

A plenary session on “Polls, Election and the Media” is being organized by former CBS News public opinion expert Professor Kathy Frankovic at the June World Association of Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) to be held in Buenos Aires.

Participants in the panel are:

This panel will discuss polling, especially election polling, in its international context. The quality of polling, its reporting, and the impact of changes in technology and techniques are the main topics.

There are also plenary panels concerning recent Latin American elections and their continent-wide trends and the upcoming presidential election in Argentina.

Marijuana Debate Begins in California

Powerful political and financial forces are beginning the campaign to legalize recreational use of marijuana in California in the 2016 presidential election. A new PPIC poll shows that support for legalization has climbed to 53 percent, an all-time high, although support has been above 50 percent since 2013.

Democrats favor legalization by 63 percent and Republicans oppose it by 54 percent. It has produced an early split among top Democrats, in spite of support from two-thirds of the rank and file. Governor Jerry Brown expresses reservation about legalization, but the current frontrunner to replace him in 2018, former San Francisco mayor and now lieutenant Governor, Gavin Newsom, is an avid supporter.

A new study of the challenge legalization of marijuana in California must address was just published. It includes a litany of issues the Colorado State Legislature has been working on starting in the 2013 session related to child safety, driving and taxation.

See:
Contra Costa Time: Marijuana legalization in California: ACLU-Gavin Newsom panel releases road map on the issues
The Sacramento Bee: Gavin Newsom’s pot legalization panel identifies challenges
LA Times: Newsom, other supporters call for study before 2016 pot ballot measure
The Buzz: California ready for marijuana?