Great Britain May Be Less Great

At a world conference of pollsters last week, the biggest topic was not ISIS or Ukraine, but new polls showing Scottish nationals closing the gap and even taking the lead for independence from Great Britain.

The new British-based poll using online panels has been dominating the news, and YouGov reports the gap between yes and no shrunk from 22 percent to 6 percent and then reversed last weekend. The election is Thursday, September 18.

Anything that diminishes our strongest ally hurts us. It’s another problem for President Obama who needs Prime Minister Cameron leading Britain and rallying Europe behind the ISIS and Russian initiatives. If the vote is for independence, Cameron could lose control of his party and next May’s UK election.

See YouGov:

Scotland: “Yes” Blitzkrieg wipes out “no” lead
“Yes” campaign lead at 2 in Scottish referendum
Survey results

Bruni Sees Colorado as a Bigger Swing State Than Ohio and More Experimental Than California – Old News

Frank Bruni in the New York Times describes Colorado as more of a swing state than Ohio in spite of a couple of big Barack Obama wins and politically easier to promote lifestyle changes, like drugs, than California. That’s mostly correct and mostly old news.

KOA Radio, one of the state’s under-appreciated news outlets, produced on August 19 a piece on Bruni’s views. A few thoughts:

Competition and Experimentation

1. Colorado is closely balanced in its partisanship and ideology. While it likes moderation, it swings right and left with persuasive candidates and shifting issues. In 2010, Colorado was a Tea Party state, now it’s less so.
2. Colorado is very independent. It’s likely to give a new idea a forum and sometimes a platform. Ross Perot was welcomed in the 1990s as was tax limitations and anti-gay initiatives, but in the 2000s, gay rights recovered and medical and recreational marijuana were popular.
3. Colorado’s western outlook is often anti-establishment. Libertarianism is a popular theme, if only a minor party. The state likes term limits (second to adopt), tax limits (nation’s most severe) and lobbyist spending limits (most picayune).
4. The state has a few powerful media outlets and a very engaged civic community. When things appear completely out-of-kilter, they tend to react. Anti-growth and anti-energy development initiatives have been resisted as have anti-government financing initiatives, all of which have passionate, if narrow, constituencies and a very friendly initiative process.

In light of this swing state phenomenon, Colorado could decide the U.S. Senate control with Gardner vs. Udall race. But, the state could provide the seawall to any anti-Washington wave coming out of D.C. as it did in 2010.

What a great state if you like to watch American politics!

Post-Labor Day: Democrats Ahead, But Udall Stronger Than Hickenlooper

The first post-Labor Day polls are mostly good news for Democrats. Mark Udall’s lead of six points in the new NBC/Marist poll will reinforce the Democrats’ campaign strategy of “all reproductive rights advertising all the time.” Expect to see the Romanoff’s campaign to start to highlight the issue and many other Democrats.

John Hickenlooper is still in what appears a closer race with Bob Beauprez. If you asked the state’s political class who was the least vulnerable between Hickenlooper and Udall, Hickenlooper would have won hands down last winter and spring. But, repeated polls have shown him in a close race whereas Udall appears to have a near margin of error lead.

One difference between the NBC/Marist survey and Rasmussen in the governor’s race is the naming of two third party candidates – libertarian and Green Party. Together, they are taking nine percent of the vote, no doubt some from each of the frontrunner candidates.

The Hickenlooper campaign must have some angst over the closeness of the race. Hickenlooper has many people who like him, but he generates little passion, especially among the rank and file Democratic core constituencies. In fact, he has especially alienated the environmental community.

Hickenlooper’s advertising is just starting. The ads will likely try to reestablish the non-politician with some humor image that made his career. Also expect to see a lot of flood waters. But no doubt his “feisty” demeanor at the Club 20 debate reflects his frustration with his weak numbers. Although Hickenlooper has no paid critical advertising of Beauprez, independent PACs are lurking and they may step up to help the governor.

Click here for CBS/NYT/YouGov survey

Stuart Varney Sees the Republican Wave

I did an interview with Stuart Varney, filling in for a vacationing Neil Cavuto. He used the first New Hampshire poll (Aug. 22) showing Scott Brown only two points behind Democratic incumbent Senator Jeanne Shaheen as a jumping off point for a description of the pre-Labor Day U.S. Senate forecast.

Brown remains an underdog to win the seat, but most forecasts using historical data and the latest polls still give Republicans a better than 50 percent chance to win six seats and take control of the U.S. Senate.

Up to late August, the forecasts are driven primarily by historical data. For example, weighing a senate race where Romney got more votes than Obama in 2012, to giving the Republican candidate an edge. But after Labor Day, the polls in each state will become dominant in the models and the Democratic strategy of running strong localized races, especially with incumbents, gets tested. There are two models from Democratic websites (Huffington Post and Kos) that show Democrats holding the senate. But, the mainstream sites (i.e., major papers, Nate Silver, etc.) still see Republicans with a slight edge to win six seats.

The different forecasts should converge, and it appears the races will tighten because several Democrats are indeed performing better than the forecasts predicted.

Campaign Starts

Although the campaign for U.S. Senate in Colorado has already spent more than $10 million trying to convince voters of the flaws in opponents and merits in themselves, the attention will now ramp up as public polling results become more frequent, voters get more attentive and their positions more firm.

A few observations:

Control of the U.S. Senate is in play with a narrow advantage to the Republicans. But, no wave is detected; hence, the final decision will likely be localized; i.e., are good candidates and campaigns being run, which may help Democrats possibly hold onto a few races and score an upset (Kentucky, South Dakota, Georgia).

Udall still appears ahead in Colorado. His campaign focuses on gender issues. His and Gardner’s strategies are being closely watched nationally.

The wave, that is a trend, could start late during the final week of early and Election Day voting. There the Republicans have the advantage. The message of “time to change D.C.” is strong and is mostly anti-Obama.

Immigration Goes South For Democrats

President Obama’s political campaigns have seemed highly attuned to the shifts in public opinion while his policies (and their implementations, aka Obamacare) have more often than not fallen flat. After a month of White House leaks about an aggressive change in the nation’s deportation laws, Obama’s political team seem to have gotten the memo. Unfortunately for them, they again look confused and politically disingenuous.

Some long-observed facts:

• The surge to the southern border has shifted public opinion pluralities from helping millions of undocumented citizens to tighter border enforcement.
• The latest Pew Research poll (9-3-14) shows a ten-point shift from helping people become citizens to border security since early 2013 when the President proposed immigration reform as a top second-term agenda item.

• Some of the most vulnerable politicians to the President’s aggressive policy will be senators in battleground states. For example, New Hampshire, Arkansas and North Carolina where Democrats are already under assault in ads accusing them of being for amnesty.

Gallup reports immigration is a top issue for Republicans (8-22-14) and they shifted much more to border security than the rest of the population (53% in 2014 from 36% in 2013), hence, the special problem in battleground states. Along with endangering vulnerable senate Democrats, the President’s preference for aggressive, non-legislative solutions engenders considerable negative reaction and commentary.

In Colorado, Democrats have tried to use immigration as a part of “my opponent is extreme” theme. As the issue has shifted, that argument has no traction. Politico reported (8-21-14) that immigration is not a major issue even in the highly competitive 6th Congressional District, which has a 20 percent Hispanic population.

“The national narrative’s wrong,” said Floyd Ciruli, an independent pollster here and a longtime observer of Colorado politics.
For most voters, he said, immigration is the sixth or seventh most important issue.

 “It definitely doesn’t show up in any surveys as a big issue for the right or left,” he said. “Obviously, you have segments. But it just is not at the top of mind.” (Jake Sherman, Politico, 8-21-14)

Governor Goes Off Message – Denver Post

John Hickenlooper wants to talk about the economy and accomplishments, but keeps backtracking over the actions of 2013, the year his political career began to list to the left and his approval sank 20 points in less than 12 months.

After some correcting and getting up a little speed in early 2014, the Governor repeatedly gets into topics that will hurt him. He brought up guns with the state’s leading gun rights advocates, County sheriffs, and that pulled him off message for a couple of weeks. He ended August and headed into the final campaign turn opening up a debate on his very poorly received death penalty decision.

Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli said Hickenlooper can only blame himself for repeatedly reviving an issue that repeatedly hurts him.

The issue was part of Hickenlooper’s tipping point in 2013, Ciruli said, when he granted Dunlap the reprieve, helping drive down his approval ratings from results above and just below 60 percent to the low 40s.

“It was the first issue that clearly put him on the wrong side of the public,” Ciruli said. “He had been a pretty popular governor up to that point in his first term, and it handed a very good issue to the Republicans to hammer him with.”

“But it had kind of gone away. But now (since the CNN interview) he’s reopened it.”

By saying he might grant clemency if he loses, Hickenlooper didn't portray himself as a thoughtful leader, the pollster said.

“Speaking in a hypothetical about what if he loses, what he might do, that comes across as politically manipulative,” Ciruli said. (Joey Bunch and Jesse Paul, Denver Post, 8-30-14)