Do Republicans Win Senate?

The intramural debate among the D.C. commentators about the control of the Senate in 2015 appears to
have shifted to Republicans as the likely winners, with the possibility of adding seats in the House.

The rapid, but successful, entrance by Congressman Cory Gardner into the Colorado Senate race happened just as a consensus was developing that Republicans had the advantage due to the states in play and the drag of the President’s approval numbers and the ACA.

National Journal. Congressional Democrats Face Uphill Battle in Midterms, Charlie Cook, 3-3-14

“What’s changed is that Democrats’ chances of holding onto their majority in the Senate is looking increasingly tenuous. There are now at least 10, and potentially as many as 13, Democratic-held seats in jeopardy. By contrast, only two GOP seats are in any meaningful danger, and that number hasn’t changed in six months.”

“Udall became the latest addition to the list when GOP Rep. Cory Gardner announced his candidacy Saturday.”

National Journal. The Hotline’s Senate Race Rankings: Republicans in Command, Steven Shepard and Julie Sobel, 2-27-14

“Republicans are well positioned to win a Senate majority in 2014. A favorable map, combined with a positive national environment driven by disapproval of the health care law, have put Democrats on the defensive.”

“The 2014 Senate landscape continues to look challenging for Democrats. Republicans can take back the chamber after eight years of Democratic control with a net gain of six seats, and the seven seats most likely to flip are held by Democrats in states President Obama lost in 2012.”

“Seats 8 to 12 are also close to 50/50 races. Colorado debuts in this tier after the top recruit, Rep. Cory Gardner, decided to run. In seats 13 to 15, the Democratic incumbent is likely to retain control of the seat, although the races bear watching – and Republicans don’t’ need seats 13 to 15 to wrestle control of the majority.”

Huffington Post. Why 2014 Could be a Very Democratic Election, Curtis Gans, 2-25-14

Series of factors that could lead to Democrats winning House seats and retaining the Senate.

Real Clear Politics. How Likely are Democrats to Lose the Senate? Sean Trende, 2-20-14

Democrats will lose in Monte Carlo simulation. Obama’s approval and poll in states. Democrats lose 7 to 9 seats.

New York Post. Fresh Hope for GOP to Take Over Senate, John Podhoretz, 2-20-14

Seat-by-seat analysis.  “No one debated the GOP would come close or better than close to a Senate takeover in November. But every day, the map looks more favorable for the Republicans.”

The Cook Political Report. The Obama Factor, Charlie Cook, 2-9-14

Midterm elections tend to be a referendum on the incumbent president, but Republicans have had a difficult time beating Democrats and managed to lose many close races.

Reuters. Here’s the Republican Path to Taking Back the Senate, Brett Logiurato, 2-7-14

Automated polls from American Crossroads show Republicans ahead in their Democratic incumbent states: Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana. Republicans are ahead in Michigan and Montana, tied in North Carolina and behind by five points in New Hampshire.

Washington Post. Republicans Have a 44% Chance of Taking the Senate. But it May be Much Higher, John Sides, 1-27-14

Democrats 56% chance to hold the Senate. But the model gives the Republicans a 64% chance if more recent data set is used.

Model uses: Obama approval, GDP, type of election (general or midterm), partisanship, incumbency, previous race

New York Times. 2014 Election Likely to Keep Capital’s Split, Carl Hulse, 1-26-14

Democrats will lose Senate seats, but six is unlikely.

Real Clear Politics. Why the 2014 Senate Races Matter so Much, Sean Trende, 1-23-14

Republicans need to win at least 54 seats to have a very good chance to hold the Senate in 2016 due to a more difficult playing field.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Senate 2014: A Coin-Flip, Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley, 1-23-14

Seat by Senate seat analysis indicates toss-up for Republicans to pick up six seats. Conditions far improved by this analysis.

Chaos in Colorado Initiatives

Colorado’s initiative process regularly invites chaos for the state’s local governments and businesses.  This year is no exception.  Activists – some locally based, some ideologically extreme, and some inspired and funded by out-of-state interests – are again proposing a myriad of initiatives, any one of which will radically disrupt the civic process in Colorado.

As these initiatives proceed through the title setting process, the civic community would be well-advised to get organized.

Colorado for Republican National Convention

Eight cities have been identified as sites for the 2016 Republican National Convention. Cities had to get
through an initial bid process. Two initial criteria are being able to accommodate 50,000 guests over a week and raise $60 million. One special challenge is the RNC’s timing. They want to hold the convention in June, a busy convention month for most host cities.

Denver is both helped and hurt by having just hosted the Democrats in 2008.  Helped because it finally got the chance to prove it could handle the accommodations, logistics, food, security, etc. for 50,000 visitors. Also, the November Obama victory seemed to confirm the Democrats’ choice. Conventions can be a vehicle of local imagery and recruitment that helps in future elections.

Denver, however, is also hurt by the recent history of the Democrats. Parties often like to move around and highlight different cities, and the recent memory of Obama in 2008 creates the likelihood of frequent references in the commentary.

Ohio, with three winning bids, looks like the frontrunner. Cleveland hosted the Republicans in 1936 and nominated Alfred Landon. They will be hoping for a better result in 2016. But, the RNC also appears interested in midsized cities and some from the West.

Russia Starts Invasion With Public Opinion Deficit

Although the U.S. has few assets in or near the Crimea to counter the Russian military invasion, Russia lacks strength in international public opinion.

The most recent Pew Research poll of favorability of Russia, China and the U.S. shows Russia with 36 percent of the public having a favorable view of them, 50 percent was garnered by China and 63 percent by the U.S.

It is the Obama administration’s strategy to use opinion of global elites and the public at large to help secure diplomatic and economic sanctions against Russia and encourage a peaceful settlement.

Although hard to gauge, Vladimir Putin clearly views himself a proselytizer for the Russian model. Being an international pariah can’t please him, and may be one more reason for him to find a solution that is less disruptive of international relations and Russia’s role in the world community.

The Obama Rally?

President Obama should receive a rally of public approval in the face of the crisis with Russia.

A patriotic surge of approval for the president and commander-in-chief in a crisis is a common phenomenon in public opinion polling. Actual combat engagement in both Iraq wars was accompanied by major rallies for public approval for both Bushes.

G.W. Bush received a 90 percent Gallup recorded approval (up from 51% in August 2001) after the Twin Towers attack, much of which he held on to far into 2002.

But, Obama may not get the normal surge due to his current unpopularity, somewhat disconcerting for the country at the moment he is facing off with the most aggressive and dangerous Russian autocrat since Nikita Khrushchev.

Obama hasn’t seen a surge in support based on a foreign policy crisis or victory in his five years, except for a modest blip after the death of Osama bin Laden of about 6 points to 50 percent, which began fading immediately.

The Gallup chart shows his approval in January of each year of his term.

Obama’s strength has been less in governing and more in campaigning. He hit his highest recent approval rating of 57 percent in December 2012, immediately after his re-election.

Shortly after the inauguration, his numbers declined until the crash from Obamacare implementation when they hit a low of 40 percent.Today, he is at 43 percent approval.

D.C. Pundits Shift – Republicans Now Leading in Race for Senate

During the last week of February, Washington D.C.’s political and pundit classes shifted their views from a close battle for the Senate in 2014 to Republicans in the driver’s seat.

The President’s and Democrats’ weaknesses going into the election was confirmed by a New York Times/CBS News poll published on February 26, 2014 producing headlines:

“Most Americans disappointed in Obama’s presidency, poll says”

“GOP, though deeply split, has election edge, poll shows”

The poll, conducted by a team of CBS/New York Times pollsters, including Anthony Salvanto, shows:

• 59% of Americans say they are disappointed in Obama’s presidency
• 41% approve of his job performance, down from 46% in January
• 42% will back Republicans in November and 39% back Democrats

Gardner’s Entering the Race Puts Colorado in Play

February 26 marked the day Colorado’s U.S. Senate race became targeted by national Republicans and Washington D.C. pundits.

In a series of interviews, I helped describe the significance of Congressman Cory Gardner’s entrance into the race.

KOA, April Zesbaugh and Steffan Tubbs, 2-26-14:

• Assuming a successful transition into the race, his strengths within the Republican Party and two terms in the House, when he was seen as a rising star, makes him competitive to Mark Udall.
• Udall’s vulnerability is due to President Obama’s weak approval in Colorado (37%) and the dislike of ACA (only 37% approve of it).
• National Republicans and Washington D.C. pundits believe Republicans can win the senate, and Colorado is now on the list.

Channel 9, Brandon Rittiman, 2-26-14:

“They’ve got at least one or more polls that show Obamacare and the president are hurting Udall, and that Udall has not established a sufficient identity after 5 years of being in the U.S. Senate,” 9NEWS political analyst Floyd Ciruli said.

Reuters, Keith Coffman, 2-27-14:

“This completely changes the dynamic of the race,” said Floyd Ciruli, an independent Denver political pollster. “Gardner will be attacked by for being extreme, but he is an affable candidate who can come across as center-right.”

A Republican has not won a statewide election to be governor or a U.S. senator in Colorado in more than a decade. But Udall, 63, is perceived as vulnerable over his support for the Affordable Health Care Act, which is unpopular in Colorado, Ciruli said.

Now that Gardner is in the race, the money will start flowing, Ciruli predicted, noting that Udall has amassed $5 million so far in his re-election war chest. Buck, campaign contribution records showed, had raised just $379,000 by the end of last year.

“Republican donors have been looking for a serious candidate to take on Udall,” he said

Greeley Tribune, T.M. Fasano, 2-26-14:

Political analyst Floyd Ciruli of Denver said the moves by Buck and Gardner will make the Republican Party stronger. 

“It’s a much stronger ticket. Buck will be very strong at the Congressional level,” Ciruli said. “I think in terms of engineering this, I think the leadership of the party here recognizes that the one thing that has been missing after this long sort of drought where they have not been able to win a top-level seat is that Cory was probably the star out there and that his entrance into the race would change the entire dynamic.”