Are Nominal Independents Truly Independent?

Tony Massaro, who has been working in Colorado politics at least since the first Pena for mayor election in 1983, opines on my recent blog that so-called independent voters are in fact partisans who just eschew the label and are not particularly persuadable.

I agree, but only to a point. The point of the blog is that voters are increasingly calling themselves independents when talking to pollsters or registering to vote, which I interpret as a symptom of more people taking on anti-partisan views in an age of ideological rigidity and gridlock.

Larimer County is a good example of a county that has a history of split tickets and partisan swings between elections. It voted for Bush twice, Obama twice, Udall and Buck. Unaffiliated voters are the largest bloc of registered voters (36%, see table).

When voters registered unaffiliated were asked in a recent Ciruli Associates poll, their party preference, the largest group, 70 percent, said independent. Nine percent said Republican and 14 percent Democrat.

Asked their political philosophy, 49 percent said middle, 40 percent liberal and 21 percent conservative. Their near 50 percent declaration of a middle philosophy was larger than registered Democrats, 27 percent of whom said they were in the middle, and the 22 percent of Republicans who described themselves in the middle position.

Notice 22 percent of Republicans identified as independent and only 8 percent of Democrats. Twenty-nine percent of Democrats said they were in the middle and 20 percent of Republicans. Fewer Democrat rank and file claim to be liberal than Republican rank and file identify as conservatives.

Lots of polling data and voting analyses show that unaffiliated voters are the most capable of changing their position on candidates and issues and are more easily influenced by media and events, especially if dramatic and late in a campaign.

The reason Colorado has become a battleground state is the high percentage of less partisan, more persuadable voters. 

Recall Chaos

Everything about the effort to recall two Democratic State Senators has been chaotic. Because it’s never been done before, all the rules governing it are being contested and many legal questions are of first impressions.

“There is nothing in this election going correctly.” (Floyd Ciruli, 9News, Brandon Rittiman)

The only fact we are certain of is that two Democratic incumbent senators will stand for a recall election on Tuesday, September 10. Beyond that, the facts are evolving:

• Will it be a mail-back or in-person election? The court ruling giving additional interested voters up to August 26 to turn in 1,000 valid signatures seems to require in-person voting.
• Who will be on the replacement candidate list? Republicans have one candidate on each list, but the extra time for signature collection may produce additional candidates.

The court decision was probably a Republican win. Turnout is the key to the election. Democrats want a convenient election procedure, namely mail-back ballots, to help target and motivate their less-engaged voters. Republicans want a lower turnout and less convenient process, which should allow their more motivated voters – a large portion of the people who signed the petition – to dominate. Clerks want the election to be simple and as cheap as possible. Mail-back ballots would have done that.

With in-person vote costs, estimated at about $150,000 per election, are likely to double.  The candidates, especially the incumbents, will raise at least $300,000 and possibly much more for advertising. They have already started tv ads. We are headed toward a million dollar election.

See:
9News: Court appeal promises more legal wrangling over recall elections
KOA morning show

Polarized Parties and Independent Voters

As Colorado’s political parties move to their respective corners, offering left and right positions on controversial issues and candidate with no compromise personal philosophies, the public is moving away from identifying with them and registering independent.

In the last decade, Republicans have struggled the most with the new reality, highly out of alignment with the middle of public opinion and issues, and inclined to nominate candidates who are either unwilling or unable to avoid extreme statements or signal a sense of moderation.

Voters who are unaffiliated dominate the Denver metro suburbs, which have been the problem counties for the Republican Party’s statewide candidates since 2004.

In the rest of the Front Range, unaffiliated voters are the largest bloc in Larimer, almost equal Republicans in Weld, and are growing in El Paso. Only Pueblo still has a dominant party, Democrats.

See The Colorado Observer: GOP maintains advantage over Dems in August voter registration numbers

Unaffiliated Voter Registration Surges

New Colorado voters are casting their first choice as none of the above. Unaffiliated voter registration is now more than a million and larger than Democratic and Republican registration.

Given the gridlock in Washington, which hurts both parties and the government’s reputation in general and the President’s declining popularity, it’s not surprising that voters are registering independent.

Expect the unaffiliated bloc to grow as more young voters sign up. Also, Colorado elections will become more volatile and expensive as both parties battle to sway these less partisan voters.

Tancredo Wins Republican Primary?

Some people are complaining Tom Tancredo already thinks he’s the Republican nominee challenging Governor Hickenlooper to a debate on his billion dollar school tax increase.

But, if there are five or more Republican candidates for governor, Tancredo is very likely to be the nominee (the current count is 7 considering the race). That is how he became congressman in 1998. He eked out a 3-point victory in a field of five Republican candidates.

In the last poll to measure Republicans interested in the governor’s race, Tancredo won a favorability contest mostly due to name identification and his core conservative support.

See The Buzz: Do the Republican have a challenger to Hickenlooper?

Billion Dollar School Finance Turn in Signatures

No real surprise. The super-funded school finance initiative turned in 160,000 signatures. It needs only 86,160. The initiative has already attracted major contributions from an interesting coalition, including: unions that recognize they get most of the money; school reformers who believe unless you give the special interest groups massive incentives they will never reform; and public education activists who have been dreaming of universal preschool and kindergarten for a couple of decades. This will be one of the most closely watched initiatives in the country, and be a major boost or bust the governor.

The title as designated and fixed by the Board is as follow:

SHALL STATE TAXES BE INCREASED BY $950,100,000 ANNUALLY IN THE FIRST FULL FISCAL YEAR AND BY SUCH AMOUNTS AS ARE RAISED THEREAFTER BY AMENDMENTS TO THE COLORADO CONSTITUTION AND THE COLORADO REVISED STATUTES CONCERNING FUNDING FOR PRESCHOOL THROUGH TWELFTH-GRADE PUBLIC EDUCATION, AND, IN CONNECTION THEREWITH, INCREASING THE CURRENT STATE INCOME TAX RATE ON INDIVIDUALS, ESTATES, AND TRUSTS AND IMPOSING AN ADDITIONAL RATE SO HIGHER AMOUNTS OF INCOME ARE TAXED AT HIGHER RATES….

See:
Denver Post: Colo. school tax supporters turn in petitions
Denver Post: Colorado school finance reformers deliver double required signature
The Buzz: Billion dollar school tax increase is significant

Denver Post Paper Gets Smaller, Website Bigger

The Denver Post announced it will continue to consolidate sections (reduce content) and make the paper even smaller (one inch). But, they also announced the website is being upgrade with a host of navigation and social media tools. And, it will have video clips of news and events with more content.

When does the paper go to three days a week? Has denverpost.com become the primary platform for investment and content?

Check out new format here