One Billion for Schools: Reform or Bailout?

Supporters of the public school system in Colorado were disappointed that the Colorado Supreme Court did not rule there is a constitutional right to a “uniform and adequate” school system as defined by the plaintiffs and requiring a massive increase in public funding of the current system that serves 863,561 (includes 30,375 preschoolers) (2012) children in 178 school districts (179 with the Charter School Institute).

But, putting more money into the K-12 public system is always on multiple tracks: some local, some statewide, some legal, some legislative and some by ballot initiative. Reflecting that, Colorado voters will be asked to support a legislative-approved one billion dollar tax increase ballot issue in November.

Its chance of passage is mixed:

• Although Colorado has moved to the left on a host of issues in recent years – gays, guns, drugs, etc. and last November local schools were very successful with tax referendums – a statewide income tax increase will be unprecedented.
• Local schools and statewide funding tend to be framed differently for voters. People know more about their local districts, but have less knowledge and no positive feelings about providing the state more money.
• There are reform elements in the package, but they tend to be at the margin. Incentives for improvements and funding for charter schools still reflect modest levels. Most money goes to equalize the current system.
• Lurking in the background is the pension overhang story, which is often highlighted by news accounts of California’s irresponsible public pension commitments. Some believe the Colorado PERA system is as ill-managed as California’s and that a significant amount of the annual funds in this initiative will be diverted by local districts to prop up prior pension promises.
• The 2013 electorate will look more like the tax unfriendly 2011 voters than the generous 2012 turnout. Off-year turnout tends to attract only committed, older and more passionate voters. In 2011, they buried a much more modest school funding package.

Lead From Rear – Lose Control

The U.S. Constitution, precedent and the nature of the problems give presidents their greatest power in foreign affairs. They set the agenda and shape public opinion.

President Obama has seen his primary task to substitute soft power, friendly persuasion, and collaboration for boots on the ground and unilateral action.

He has mostly succeeded and the public has generally followed. They are pleased to be out of Iraq, ready to leave Afghanistan, and the latest polls show disinterest in active participation in Syria beyond diplomacy, which they believe will fail.

The polls reflect Democrats who like the idealist rhetoric and non-military solutions, Republicans who do not like or trust the administration to do anything in foreign affairs and the public in general still focused on domestic concerns.

Unfortunately, presidential preferences sometimes are sabotaged by reality:

• The reset relationship with Russia is worse, not better, than under Bush.
• The friendly hand extended to Iran has been slapped away.
• The rapid near total withdrawal from Iraq created a vacuum that has been filled with sectarian violence.
• Afghanistan does not look to have much of a future after NATO and U.S. participation ends.

And, most importantly, the low-key, non-action in Syria against the all-out commitment of Iranians and Russians has reinvigorated the Assad regime. The conflict now is a platform for a much wider war, which the U.S. side is losing.

It’s not clear the American public will shift views on the Obama record, but a steady decline in U.S. foreign clout and a wider, hotter Middle East conflict will be topics in the next presidential race.

See Gallup:  Americans oppose U.S. military involvement in Syria

The IRS is a Dangerous Problem for the President

President Obama has prided himself on a first term with few unforced errors.  The leaks were limited and the scandals seldom above the fold. Fast and furious, the guns and border security controversy never grabbed the attention of the general public.

But, the latest round of scandals is wearing down the White House and making Bill Clinton’s “I need to go back to work for the American people” defense less effective. It’s also directly damaging the President’s credibility. And, the IRS targeting scandal has the potential to do the most damage.

The IRS is the most pervasive agency of the government, and many of citizens’ encounters are irritating or downright hostile (56% hate or dislike doing their taxes, Pew 2013). A host of new polls show the believability that the President knew nothing about the IRS targeting is receding and the sense the administration is competent to run the government has declined.

Beyond the facts of the scandal is America’s deep-seated concern about government and especially federal power.

• Gallup just reported 54% of the public believes the “federal government today has too much power.” Republicans are twice as likely as Democrats to believe that (76% to 32%). (May 27, 2013)
• Pew reported earlier in the year that trust in the federal government was low (26% government in Washington do the right thing “always” or “most of the time” and 73% only trust government “some of the time” or “never trust government”) (volunteered) and a majority of the public believe their personal rights and freedoms were threatened (53%). (January 31, 2013) 

The new disclosures concerning the domestic surveillance reinforce the issue’s likely volume and duration.

Obama in Trouble

The approval rating of President Barack Obama has finally dropped into negative territory after nine months of being positive with periodic double-digit spreads.

The collapse has many causes and some dramatic effects. And, it is a complete reversal of White House expectations, which were to dominate Washington in 2013 with an aggressive liberal agenda and to defy the more common result of final midterm elections and pick up seats in the House next year.

Obama had slightly negative approval ratings most of the summer of 2012 leading up to the fall campaign, but at the end of the Democratic Convention (September), he entered into a positive approval trend that topped out at 12 points of approval over disapproval during the Christmas season. It was a 9-point spread at his inaugural, but began a steady decline, hitting lows of one point in early April and finally turning negative May 29 under the weight of harsh criticism for a myriad of scandals.

The President’s 2013 decline has continued even though the economy has improved, if unevenly. Among the factors pulling him down are the continued partisan gridlock and its ability to frustrate his agenda, and now the distraction of scandals that are overwhelming the White House, especially after the high expectations from the “no drama” Obama operation of the first four years.

The main affect will be to place in jeopardy the Obama strategy of a permanent campaign using money and talent from the November re-election to lobby for his agenda and to ignite the base for the midterm. Next sign of more problems for Obama will be if Democrats running for election and up for re-election start to criticize as much as praise and begin to look for some distance. Watch for it.

Labor Big Loser in L.A. Mayor’s Race

Organized labor bet on City Controller, Wendy Greuel, with millions of direct and independent PAC contributions to become the next mayor of Los Angeles. Their involvement became the main issue, and in a low turnout election, voters rejected early frontrunner Greuel and elected City Council member, Eric Garcetti, by 8 points (54% to 46%).

Early on, Greuel managed to unite both key elements in the business establishment with the most powerful local union, the Department of Water and Power. But, Garcetti, seeing an opening, went after the union connection at the moment underfunded pensions and government salary negotiations were major concerns for more fiscally conscious residents. Utility rates, which had been increasing steadily, were the catalyst that convinced a majority of homeowners Greuel might not negotiate with the tax and ratepayers’ interests in mind. A specific attack advertisement by Garcetti on organized labor’s Super PAC spending was the coup de gras.

The L.A. election serves an important message for Colorado municipal and state officials thinking of actions and legislation that tilt negotiations for government salaries and pensions toward organized self-interested groups.

Interestingly, Garcetti represents a new post-Latino leader. There was an initial discussion about if a person from an Italian grandfather and Mexican grandmother who lived in Mexico and a father and Jewish-American mother is sufficiently Hispanic to command the passion of voters from L.A.’s powerful Hispanic community.

The election results show Garcetti was the perfect candidate for the new diverse urban population. He won Eastside Latino and Westside Jewish votes, along with a significant bloc of fiscal conservatives and homeowners in L.A.’s huge Valley electorate.

See Los Angeles Times:
L.A. mayor’s race: It’s Eric Garcetti by wide margin
Steve Lopez: Labor unions the big loser in mayor’s race
USC Price/L.A. Times poll: Garcetti’s lead over Greuel at 7 percentage points in mayoral race
USC Price/L.A. Times poll calls Los Angeles mayoral race

Could 2014 be a Wave Election?

Colorado moved to the left in the 2012 presidential election, but 2014 could look like 2010 – a Republican wave election.

Turnout in non-presidential years is lower and key Democratic constituencies that have been activated by President Obama may stay home.  Young voters, which gave Obama 60 percent of their vote in 2012, made up 19 percent of all voters, but they were only 12 percent in 2010.

Early polling indicators are mixed. Obama’s approval ratings have gone south. His negative is now higher than his positive. But, the generic ballot test, one of the best tests of how a federal election will go, is still in Democrats’ territory.

Is there a decent Republican who wants to be a U.S. Senator? They should run in 2014 – things could start to break Republican.

2014 – Criminal Justice Works for Republicans

Could criminal justice be a comeback issue for Republicans in 2014? There are already three candidates talking about running for the Colorado Attorney General seat.  Of course, the seat is open and, hence, no incumbent, such as Governor Hickenlooper or Senator Udall, has to be confronted.  But, there is also a sense that crime and the state’s criminal justice system is becoming an issue and that a law and order approach might fit.

The clearly broken parole system is literally killing people. And, Hickenlooper’s sudden and poorly explained derailing of the death penalty provides two above-the-fold issues for Republican candidates.

In fact, if the Republicans find a credible candidate for governor, crime is likely to be a top issue in that race. It moves prosecutors (like Buck or Suthers) up the list.