Israel Accepts Two-State Solution, But Skeptical it’s Possible to Achieve

Polls conducted in Israel during the recent election affirm that Israelis still accept the contours of a two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israel question, but they are extremely pessimistic it can be achieved.

Two polls captured the support for a two-state solution with slightly different terms. The first poll question below was from a poll conducted by The Mark Mellman Group for the Yesh Atid (There is a Future), a surprisingly successful left center party in the recent election. The second poll is from the University of Maryland Sadat Center conducted in November 2012.

A two-state agreement: “With the Palestinians entailing a demilitarized Palestinian state with boundaries based on the 1967 lines, along with territorial swaps that reckon with Israel’s security concerns and keep the major settlement blocs under Israeli control; if Palestinian refugees could return to the new state, but not to Israel; if the Arab neighborhoods of Jerusalem reverted to the Palestinian state, the Jewish neighborhoods stayed in Israel and the Old City were under some kind of joint administration; and if the agreement would come into effect only after the Palestinians ended all terror activities and the United States approved the deal.” (68% support) (Mellman Group)

“In 2002, Arab countries offered the Arab Peace Initiative, a comprehensive peace deal with Israel based on Israeli withdrawal from the territories occupied in the 1967 war and full peace agreements between Israel and all Arab states.  If this offer is renewed with the support from Egypt’s new government, how should the Israeli government react?  Do you think it should:” (Sadat Center, University of Maryland)

The Mellman poll question tosses in a huge number of favorable conditions for Israelis to consider with the U.S. as a guarantor. The University of Maryland poll question is much leaner and inserts Egypt as a participant.

In both polls, Israelis believed the peace process was at a standstill with little chance of progress.

Changes Seen in Peace Accords, But Not Collapse

Israeli and Egyptian publics see change likely in the Camp David Peace Accords, but not collapse.  Two recent respected polls in the respective countries describe publics with some similarities. A Gallup 2012 survey shows that a plurality of Egyptians believe the peace treaty is a “good thing” (48%) (42% “bad”). Israelis, when asked in a University of Maryland survey, only 17 percent say the treaty will be terminated and 77 percent believe it will be continued, although many believe it will be changed.

In general, a narrow majority of Israelis see the Arab Spring as making things worse for them (51%), but 48 percent aren’t surprised by Egyptian President Morsi’s policies. Only 17 percent thought they were worse than expected and 23 percent better.

Iran President Ahmadinejad’s shaky welcome in Egypt reflects local public opinion. In the survey, U.S. leadership was approved by only 18 percent of the Egyptian public, but China leadership only received a 15 percent positive rating and Iran 21 percent. A substantial majority of Egyptians (62%) support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s resignation, again demonstrating the lack of alignment of the Egyptian public with Iran’s support for the Syrian regime.

Israelis are much more ambivalent about the result in Syria. Forty-two percent believe the victory of the Syrian opposition will make things worse and only 30 percent believe it will be better.

Also, President Obama had a 60 percent positive rating from the Israeli public.

Kerry – Finding a Job in an Era of Contraction

Secretary of State John Kerry faces the same challenges as Hillary Clinton – finding something to do in an administration that likes to direct foreign policy from the White House and has a constrained view of America’s foreign policy agenda and its capacity to effect change.

The foreign policy agenda took about two minutes in the President’s inaugural address, and mostly referenced getting out of foreign military entanglements, support for alliances and multilateral organizations, and a nod to democracy.

Probably Kerry was most pleased by the President’s mention of the threat of climate change.  After four years of little forward movement in the face of the bad economy, most of the developed world’s leaders will appreciate the aspiration, even if they aren’t likely to do much in the face of their continuing recessions.

Climate change is a touchstone issue for Democratic leaders, and recent polls show it as a weak priority for the rank and file, and it is of even less political concern to the public at large. It ranks last in a list of 20 priorities people want the President and Congress to focus on in a January Pew survey. Only 28 percent of Americans rank it a priority.

Kerry begins his term with considerable good will, but low expectations. Four years ago, Hillary Clinton dealt with the early stage of the global slowdown, reinforcing a White House that was interested in reducing military engagement and focusing on domestic politics.

She made travel her mode and focused on groups and causes that tend to be missed in normal State Department policy with its emphasis on national security and business her cause. Women’s and children’s issues, food and health initiatives, small village and household economic development projects were her signature activities.

See:
Pew Research:  Deficit reductions rises on public’s agenda for Obama’s second term
President Obama’s 2013 inaugural address

Immigration Reform has a Chance

As Congress begins the debate on illegal immigration, the American public is cautiously supportive. Two recent polls show that just over half the public favor allowing workers illegally in the country applying for citizenship. And, as the table below shows, it doesn’t appear to matter if they are labeled “illegal” or “undocumented.”

Also, only about a quarter of the population approves having them leave the U.S.

The key to progress has been the reduction in polarization due to a bipartisan group of senators working on a compromise. Florida Senator Marco Rubio has taken the Republican lead and some of the heat.

The key will be if the Democrats and especially President Obama want a solution or a campaign issue in 2014.

See:
Wall Street Journal:  Rubio walks fine line in immigration revamp
CBS News:  Poll: Most support letting working illegal immigrants stay in U.S.

Harry Reid Rejects Spending Cuts

Harry Reid on the weekend ABC’s This World said, “The American people don’t believe in these austere things.”  Majority Leader Reid is wrong about the majority of the American people.

They believe debt and the deficit are the second biggest problem the country faces – up 19 percent over the last year according to Pew Research.

On Neil Cavuto’s Fox Show, Your World, with Eric Bolling subbing in, I related that recent polls show the public favors cutting services more than raising taxes.

See AP-GfK poll, Jan. 10-14, 2013

Gridlock, Deficit and Debt Finally Hit the Public’s Agenda

The New Year’s Eve fiscal cliff negotiations and the political brinkmanship it represented has finally gotten the public’s attention. Two early 2013 polls show that federal deficits, debt and political dysfunction have moved next to the economy as major national problems.

A January 9-13 Pew Research survey reported that reducing the deficit is in third place as a “top priority for the President and Congress this year” with 72 percent listing it, up 18 percent since 2009.  In the same list of twenty items, global warming was last with 28 percent of Americans listing it as a top priority, in fact, down 2 percent since 2009.

Gun control and immigration reform were also in the bottom quarter of the Pew list. In general, the American people’s priorities are the reverse of many aspects of the President’s agenda.

See:
Pew Research:  Deficit reduction rises on public’s agenda for Obama’s second term
Gallup:  Debt, gov’t dysfunction rise to top of Americans’ issue list

Colorado Moves Closer to Obama in 2012, But is Still in the Middle Nationally

Gallup has just released a state-by-state comparison of Barack Obama’s 2012 average approval rating. Overall, it went up 4 points compared to 2011, from 44 percent to 48 percent.  Colorado was just below the national average at 46 percent approval. It represented a relatively high 6 percent increase over his 40 percent 2011 approval.

Colorado was joined by a half dozen other battleground states with mid-level approvals.

Colorado stands out in a region surrounded on three sides by states where Obama’s approval tends to be near freezing or lower: Wyoming 28%, Utah 28%, Nebraska 37%, Kansas 38% and Oklahoma 35%.

Obama received majority approval in only 14 states, but that was better than the 10 states that gave him majority approval in 2011.

Had Obama’s approval remained at the low 2011 level, he likely would have lost to Mitt Romney. A variety of factors that explain his improved approval rating and re-election are now being analyzed for a host of articles and books that will be published soon. I published my list in September 2012 when it appeared Obama’s lead, especially in the battleground states, was unshakable.

Obama’s post inaugural approval has improved to a solid, but unremarkable, 52 percent according to Gallup.

See:
The Buzz: If Obama wins, why?
Gallup: Obama gets highest 2012 job approval in Hawaii, D.C.