Denver is Liberal, But its Politics Diverse

Although its politics is liberal, a majority of Denver voters describe themselves as moderate or conservative (54%). And, as reported in this blog before (May 6, 2011), Denver voters are closely divided on whether or not government needs more money (44% yes; 40% no).

In a recent survey, voters were asked their preference for political philosophy on a liberal to conservative scale and if they identified most firmly with the Democratic Party, Republican Party or neither party.

More than half (54%) describe themselves as Democrat and only 17 percent say they are Republican.

Only one-quarter of Democrats (26%) say they are very liberal. Two-thirds claim to be moderately liberal or middle-of-the-road. Similar with Republicans, although one-quarter identify themselves as very conservative, 69 percent say they are moderately conservative or middle-of-the-road.

Unaffiliated voters are also diverse in their political ideology, with about one-half (47%) claiming to be middle-of-the-road, but 24 percent saying they lean to the liberal side and 23 percent to the conservative side.

Colorado Voters are Old

The 2010 U.S. Census reports that the average age of U.S. voters is almost 50 years old. In two recent surveys of registered likely Colorado voters in Denver and Larimer counties, the average voting age population is even older. In Denver County, one-half the electorate is 56 years old or older and in Larimer County it’s 57 years old.

More than ten percent of the electorate in each county is 75 years old. Census data points out one of the fastest growing segments of the population is people 85 years old and older.

Baby Boomers (45 to 65) continue to dominate the Colorado electorate with slightly more than 43 percent of voters.  The percentage of Millenniums (under 44 years old) and seniors (above 65) is closely balanced between a quarter and 30 percent of voters in each age group.

Romer Going Negative

Chris Romer made clear at the first post-general election debate he intended to make the election about Michael Hancock’s alleged lack of fortitude to say no to city employees’ pay demands; his responsibility for the deficit; and most importantly, Hancock’s voting a future pay raise for the next group of city council members.

This is hardly a new issue. Carol Boigon, who now endorses Hancock, used it in an advertisement earlier during the general election.

If Hancock becomes the candidate of government, he can expect to lose the election. He might do somewhat better than Don Mares did in 2003 when John Hickenlooper crushed him 65 percent to 35 percent, but Hancock will not win.

Hancock wanted to run a positive campaign; that is, no negative advertising. But, it would be unprecedented in a close race when an opponent goes on the attack using a well-known public incident (and vulnerability for Hancock) to not use advertising to both defend, but go on the counterattack.

And, time is short. Mail-back voting will begin in a week, about May 23.

See news articles:
9News – Denver mayoral campaign advertising goes negative
Denver Post – Romer, Hancock turn test at Denver mayoral debate
Denver Post – Denver mayoral candidates face off at pair of forums

Immigration Reform in 2012 – No Chance

Politics totally dominates immigration reform. Facts and evidence or even public opinion is secondary to partisan calculations.

Clearly, the border is somewhat more secure and illegal immigration is down because of enforcement and the weak economy. The public, when asked, demands a secure border, but will also support a path to citizenship.

But, there is no chance reform will pass in Washington, and having a “dialogue” in Colorado as President Obama proposes, will be nearly impossible. The issue has no salience among the public, and any conversation will be dominated by already committed stakeholders.

In recent polls in Denver and Larimer counties, when voters were asked the top issue for public officials to focus on in their respective jurisdictions, the economy and local government budgets were top and immigration barely registered.

In a recent speech by Frank Newport of Gallup at the national conference of pollsters in Phoenix (AAPOR), the lack of salience of immigration was confirmed in national polls (3% in recent open-ended question surveys). Newport also said:

• The issue is latent in that if an event takes place, people do become much more concerned.
• “Immigration reform” is perceived as illegal immigration and is seen negatively.
• People believe security first. And there is a vocal subset that can’t be satisfied.
• The majority of people do reflect positively on some combination of border security and solution to current undocumented immigrants.

See Denver Post article:  White House launching new immigration-reform campaign

AAPOR 66th Annual Conference- Western Battleground States Session

Why the Denver Mayor’s Race Will be Close

The Denver mayor’s race has many conditions that should lead to a close election. The two candidates came out of the general election with similar vote margins (27% Hancock and 28% Romer). They have similar possibilities for raising funds, even if Romer is stronger with out-of-state sources from his bond house relations and father’s contacts. They both have a polished political speaking style. Hancock is personable and friendly; Romer is fast-talking and makes business-like points.

But, what may most define the closeness of the race is that Denver voters are evenly divided in their fundamental values concerning government size and funding – one of the key issues in the campaign and the one Romer hammers the hardest as “Dr. No.”

In a recent Ciruli Associates poll, likely Denver voters were described Mayor Vidal’s revenue and expenditure committee and asked if they leaned toward cutting more out of government or adding more revenue. They were closely divided.

In the first debate sponsored by DDI and others, it was clear Hancock supports a balanced budget, but he emphasizes social justice when considering cuts and the distribution of services around the city, whereas Romer stresses budget cutting and especially targets city employees. Romer’s aggressive style questioned Hancock’s vote on a pay raise a couple of years ago. He was obviously trying to highlight Hancock’s recent vote for a council pay raise without saying it.

Hancock must be mindful that Romer’s strategy is to make him the Don Mares of the runoff, Denver’s last minority candidate who became the representative of government and city employees. He was left with 35 percent of the runoff vote. John Hickenlooper crushed him.

Romer, no doubt, scored points with the business crowd and was far more aggressive in debate style, but ultimately Denver likes its austerity with a deft touch for what Hancock alludes to in his slogan, “We are all Denver.”

See Denver Post article:  Hancock, Romer point out differences in first debate of mayoral runoff

Romer Leads, But Hancock Came From Behind for Second Place

Chris Romer won the general election with 28 percent, or 32,000 voters, in a record low turnout (112,000). It represents a 6-point improvement from the last poll in mid-April that gave him 22 percent in a tie with James Mejia.

But, the story of the night is the late come-from-behind-victory of Councilman Michael Hancock. That same poll gave him 18 percent, yet he finished at 27 percent. Better than Romer, it represents a 9-point improvement. He was 1,587 votes behind Romer and 1,491 votes ahead of Mejia.

James Mejia has to be disappointed. He appeared to be heading for the runoff after the April poll, but only moved up 4 points. In the final two weeks, his fundraising lagged as Hancock’s surged. And, in spite of some early criticism of his campaign, Hancock’s final get-out-the-vote worked.

The winner of the general election does not necessarily win the runoff. In 1991, Auditor Wellington Webb (30%) lost the general election to District Attorney Norm Early (41%), yet won the runoff with 58 percent of the vote.

The runoff starts close. The three top candidates were only separated by 3,000 votes out of 111,000 cast – 3 percentage points. They dominated the race, receiving 81 percent of the votes cast. Romer’s 28 percent is the lowest general election win in the modern history of the race and the smallest margin separating him from his runoff opponent.

See articles:
9News – Denver mayor election results: Romer and Hancock will be in runoff
9News – Other Denver races also headed for runoffs
denvergov.org – Final unofficial election results – May 3, 2011
denvergov.org – Unofficial write-in results – May 3, 2011
Denver Post – Romer, Hancock a study in contrasts in sprint to runoff