Romer Stalls, Mejia and Hancock Surge

The latest Denver Post robo poll must be of concern for Chris Romer whose campaign appears to have stalled. In a poll of late March, he had 20 percent and is about in the same position (22%). Both James Mejia (22%) and Michael Hancock (18%) doubled their numbers since the March survey.

• There will be a runoff. Romer who appeared to have momentum in March is now below a quarter of the vote.

• Romer still has an advantage with high name identity and the most money for advertising during the last three weeks.

• Mejia’s base is larger than Hancock’s if Hispanics will turn out. A Ciruli Associates poll in early April shows 11 percent of the Denver electorate is Hispanic and 7 percent Black – a 4 percent difference.

• The also-ran candidates are holding 32 percent of the vote. A small amount may shift to the frontrunners by Election Day, but most likely the top three candidates will be splitting about two-thirds of the vote.

At-Large Race Lacks Visibility

Should the two at-large Denver City Council seats be abolished? The race is largely invisible, and the two winners could take their seats with barely 20 percent of the vote.

At a recent forum, the candidates gave a stout defense of having someone on council with a citywide perspective. But, comments from the sparse audience indicated that the at-large concept was little appreciated. Most people thought district seats were harder fought by candidates and more closely followed by voters.

The Denver Young Democrats sponsored a forum April 13 in the Washington Park neighborhood. Candidates were well-versed, but gave mostly cautious and conventional answers.

At-Large Candidates

• Josh Davies - A business background. Well-spoken.
• Rich Gonzales - Long city experience with the most management experience and more conservative viewpoints.
• Robin Kniech - The liberal/labor candidate.
• Debbie Ortega - Did not attend.
• Jesse Shelmire - Young with environmental orientation.

In the lightning round, they universally said they would let Police Chief Whitman go and vote against the pay raise. They mostly waffled on the pit bull ban and a garbage fee.

See articles:
Denver Post – Five vie for two at-large city council seats in Denver
North Denver Tribune – At-large candidates on NW issues

Chief Whitman is Out

A majority of the leading candidates for Denver mayor have specifically said Police Chief Gerry Whitman is out or they refused to defend him.

The debate now is about would an insider or outsider replace him.

Changing the Chief with a new administration is common. And, Whitman has been long serving.

A new mayor would like some fresh leadership to put recent police behavior controversies behind him or her and gain some fresh perspective and support with the upcoming negotiations over police pay and work rules.

See Denver Post article: Denver Decides: Mayoral candidates discuss cop-discipline changes

April 4th Round of Municipal Elections

Colorado Springs and Fort Collins both had municipal elections on April 4. The two larger Colorado Front Range cities are dealing with significant water projects.

In the Colorado Springs election, the billion dollar plus Southern Delivery System was a campaign topic. A group of candidates associated with Douglas Bruce ran campaigns for mayor, at-large and district city council positions. They criticized the project and the associated rate increases. They lost. Bruce received fewer votes than one of his less well-known allies in the at-large position. But, the defeat was reasonably close, and water and rate increases are likely to remain issues. Douglas Bruce’s problems have continued. He was just indicted for tax evasion.

In Fort Collins, the balance between environmental radicals and environmental moderates was maintained. But, mayoral winner Karen Weitkunat represents the moderate faction in local politics. Also, two incumbents were re-elected, which continues the one-vote majority for what has, thus far, been hostile to a host of new water projects. Weitkunat’s campaign was based on jobs and a strong economy, and it gives her some momentum to help guide a more reasonable dialogue.

See following Colorado Springs Gazette articles:
Election 2011 city council: Martin leads at-large race
Election 2011 mayoral race: Skorman, Bach headed for runoff
Issues 1A and 1B passing

See following Fort Collins Coloradoan articles:
Election returns suggest regional divide
Council incumbents win re-election
Fort Collins voters support the familiar
Weitkunat wins

Waiting for the Election

Denver voters will start voting in a couple of days, but without a lot of excitement. The race for mayor has attracted more money than passion.

In 2003, at this point, John Hickenlooper was beginning to generate buzz as he received the Rocky Mountain News’ endorsement, saw a surge of fundraising from $600,000 to $1 million, and grabbed the Denver Post’s endorsement mid-April.

If the one poll published and the contributions reflect the current state of the race, Chris Romer makes the runoff, but below 50 percent. The second place finish will likely be close, but will depend on final candidate turnout efforts and advertising.

All the top candidates have TV ads up, and some are good, but none seem to be generating any buzz. Surprisingly, candidates are attending two and three forums a day, but the effort seems to be more exhausting than enlightening – and, it certainly hasn’t generated much controversy or major differences.

Maybe Romer’s best chance of winning this outright is pure boredom – voters may just want to get it over.

See Denver Post article:  Denver mayoral candidates together raise about $3 million through March

Is Denver Anti-Small Business?

In an open letter to the Denver Business Journal, Jim Hannifin, a long-time Colfax Avenue small business owner, argues Denver city government is basically anti-small business.

He believes this in spite of eight years of pro-business mayoral leadership from John Hickenlooper.

RNOs are Hannifin’s main complaint. Registered Neighborhood Organizations, some of which are just front organizations for a few anti-growth, not in my neighborhood activists, have Excise and License and Planning departments in their grip. Public Works, he states, is just not very commerce-oriented and has a myriad of inappropriate and inflexible rules and procedures.

In a mayor and council election that has been mostly devoid of issues, maybe a discussion of jobs requires taking on the long overdue problems of Denver’s bureaucracy.

An Incredible Life Story

Michael Booth’s Denver Post profile of Michael Hancock described Hancock’s impoverished and difficult childhood and his incredible up-from-the-bootstraps success. Hancock is in third place in fundraising and early polling. He will need a breakout issue to become the second place finisher. His pay raise vote, while not a deal killer, is a problem, and has already been used against him in TV advertising.

Hancock has shown he knows how to get things done. A couple of year ago when the Denver Public Library’s position in the bond package was threatened due to the effort to reduce the amount of the package, Hancock got media coverage with his advocacy of the Library, which happened to have two new facilities in his area. The branch libraries stayed in the package.