Colorado’s Politics Will Continue to be Closely Fought

The 2010 census affirms the long-term growth trends that have shaped Colorado’s policy and politics since the 1970s. The Front Range counties dominate the state’s population (82%), with the Denver metro area maintaining its position as the state’s population hub (55% of state’s population). Counties with land and growth-friendly policies are the last decade’s biggest gainers (Douglas, El Paso and Weld counties).

The latest census data also makes clear that Colorado’s competitive politics will continue. The 2010 U.S. Senate race, decided by less than 30,000 votes out of 1.5 million cast, is displayed in the chart below with 2010 census results and the percentage of unaffiliated active voters in Colorado’s Front Range counties.

• The bulk of state voters are concentrated from the Wyoming border through the Pueblo-Huerfano county line (82% of state’s voters). The remaining voters are on the High Plains (3%) and 15 percent are on the Western Slope.

• The GOP’s best large Front Range counties of Douglas, El Paso and Weld grew above the state average of 17 percent. The three of them account for nearly 40 percent of the state’s 10-year population increase.

• The Democrats’ best counties of Boulder, Denver and Pueblo grew the slowest along the Front Range – only 1 percent in Boulder, 8 percent in Denver and 12 percent in Pueblo. Much of Pueblo’s growth has been in Pueblo West, an area more prone to vote Republican.

• The most competitive large counties that gave Michael Bennet a close victory in 2010 were Arapahoe, Jefferson and Larimer, each of which had been dependably Republican 20 years ago and are now reliably swing counties that will support popular statewide Democratic candidates. Arapahoe’s swing to battleground status is explained by the growth of Aurora. The city now has a majority of non-white residents.

Jefferson County’s growth stopped abruptly in the late 1990s. Lakewood and Wheat Ridge are becoming cities with higher proportions of older populations. Much of the county’s new growth has been Hispanic voters along the Denver/Jefferson county line.

Larimer County is closely balanced with moderate Republican and conservative groups, mainly outside of Fort Collins, balanced with environmentally active new residents augmented with liberal CSU students and staff.

• More than a quarter (27%) of active voters are unaffiliated. These were voters that turned out in the 2010 election. When inactive voters are added to the voter base, a third (34%) of voters are independent because inactive voters (i.e., not voting in 2010) tend to be more unaffiliated (40%). Even with reduced numbers of active voters, unaffiliated voters are the second largest voter bloc in Boulder, Denver, Douglas, El Paso and Weld.

• Republicans lost the highly competitive U.S. Senate race in spite of having turned out 108,000 more registered Republican voters than Democrats in 2010 (731,000 to 623,000). They lost many moderate Republicans and unaffiliated voters that might have voted for them given the good Republican year.

Can Romer Win the Race Without a Runoff?

Chris Romer continues to pace the field in fundraising.  The only published poll places him at 20 percent, with 40 percent of voters undecided.  He’s in the runoff, barring a McInnis-like crisis.  But, hitting 50 percent plus to win outright will require a collapse of most of the field, which has three other candidates with the money and a sufficient base among voters to be competitive the last month.

Romer has consistently raised about a third of all the money taken in – now more than $2.8 million. Although he received the Denver Post endorsement, and will no doubt use it in his advertising, it has created little buzz so far, possibly due to the lack of new coverage about it and the rather ambivalent tone of it.

Hence, Romer leads into runoff, but still doesn’t command the field. He will need a burst of public relations good news to enliven his campaign to get through it without a runoff.

Young Voters Help Run Campaigns, But Not Decide Results

The mayor’s election of May 2011 will not be decided by a youth vote. Political activists under 30 years old manage several campaigns and form a significant portion of the staff and volunteers. But, they represent barely 5 percent, or 5,000 to 7,000 votes, of the electorate (depending on final total turnout) and they won’t bloc vote. More than half of this electorate will be older than 50 and a quarter will be above 65 years old.

Auditor Dennis Gallagher will win that vote hands down.

The most interesting new voters who are under 45 years old are in Denver’s redeveloped Lowry, Stapleton, LoDo and Platte Valley, and hot growth areas, such as Cherry Creek North and Highlands neighborhoods.

See Denver Post article: Denver’s city election with all-mail balloting makes it tougher to lure young voters

Will Denver Post Endorsement End the Race for Denver Mayor?

At the end of March, only about half of the Denver electorate was paying attention to the mayor’s race. But, with the race entering its final month and the Denver Post endorsing Chris Romer on Sunday, April 3, voters will step up their decision-making and candidates’ positions will consolidate.

Romer entered the race last January with three advantages, which the Denver Post endorsement will strengthen.

His last name being a statewide political brand gave him the highest name identification of the field. A recent poll conducted by the political website ColortadoPols.com confirmed Romer’s name identification advantage. His 51 percent name identification was accompanied by the highest favorability of the top five candidates (40%) and the largest early voter share – 24 %.

His second advantage was financial connections among the big donor Democratic patrons. And, indeed, he has substantially beaten the field in fundraising (latest total: $1 million). Finally, he started with a strong network of Democratic Party operatives accumulated from years of party activism (including helping John Hickenlooper) and, of course, association with his father, Roy, who left office with a good reputation and is active in the campaign.

The Denver Post endorsement will strengthen his name identification, add to his fundraising and attract even more political operatives who want to back a winner.

The endorsement of the only metro daily adds considerable momentum to the campaign and makes Romer now the candidate to beat.  The Denver Post is the most powerful media organization vetting the candidates.  It brings a credibility to a candidate who is little known outside highly attentive voters.  Newspaper endorsements, often from the Rocky Mountain News, have had major impact on Denver mayoral races.  Pena, Webb and Hickenlooper each got the Rocky’s endorsement, made the runoffs and became the ultimate winners.  And, the Post’s editorial strategy tends to micromanage the campaign environment, usually to the end of helping their endorsees and to the disadvantage of the remaining field.

See 9News articles:
Denver mayor race heats up with two weeks until ballots
Denver Post endorses Chris Romer for Denver mayor

Hickenlooper Still Reigns Supreme

Governor John Hickenlooper, formerly Denver Mayor, maintains his long-established popularity with Denver voters. Hickenlooper burst on the political scene from a business career in 2003 and began his long reign of political popularity. Polls during his career have repeatedly recorded his favorability at 70 percent or higher. In a poll published by the political website ColoradoPols.com for the Denver mayor’s race, Hickenlooper has a 77 percent favorability rating (conducted by RBI Strategies, a Democratic campaign firm).

The poll conducted to measure the status of the mayoral candidates also rated the three most recent mayors. All three – Pena, Webb and Hickenlooper – maintain considerable affection with city voters.

Current ratings are affected by the remembered history and current image of the mayors. Hickenlooper’s advantage, besides the recency of his service, is that he has been able to combine popularity among Democrats (86% favorable) with high levels of support among unaffiliated voters (71% favorable) and considerable support among Republicans (58% favorable). His current rating with Republicans is good in spite of a November partisan election (even if not much of a campaign) and now serving as the Democratic governor.

Pena as Denver’s most activist recent mayor and its most liberal, always had opposition among Republicans (only 35% favorable) and middling favorability among unaffiliated voters (51% favorable). He does maintain a strong position with Democrats (70% favorable).

Webb, while a high-profile Democrat (73% Democratic favorable), kept a good image with unaffiliated voters (61% favorable) and was accepted by a plurality of the GOP (43% favorable).

Ciruli Calls the Race

Campaigns & Elections listed their Colorado influencers for 2011 with Suthers, McNulty and Anschutz top Republicans and Hickenlooper, Hughes and Gill top Democrats.

I was listed for my calling the election night races first on KOA and more recently on Channel 9. More of the races seem to be close these days and go later into the night – or maybe I’m just older.

Floyd Ciruli

“The preeminent pollster in Colorado. Serves as political analyst for leading television station and newspaper in Denver. No candidate declares victory or accepts defeat until Ciruli calls the race.”

Campaigns & Elections, March 2011

The King of Mangos is in Town

Champagne mangos have arrived in Denver. The picture is a display of Ciruli Brothers Produce Champagne mangos at the front entrance of Whole Foods in Cherry Creek.

Ciruli Brothers Produce began in Pueblo, Colorado in the early 1940s. It had warehouses and sheds throughout southern Colorado, Denver and Phoenix in the 1950s and 1960s.

Charlie (Chuck) Ciruli and his sons now run the firm out of Tubac, Arizona, north of Nogales, Mexico, where most winter produce and fruits for American tables come from. Chuck Ciruli is currently in Denver. He is my cousin (I’m in the photo), and the two of us will attend a birthday party for a 90-year-old family matriarch – Helen Mosco – in Pueblo on April 3.

Champagne mangos are a specialty of Ciruli Brothers Produce and they distribute them through Whole Foods and other quality food retailers throughout the west.