Wednesday, March 3, 2021

Trump Could Have Won

An examination of the 2020 election results makes clear Donald Trump may have been swamped in the popular vote, but nearly won the electoral vote.

Trump’s final charge got the vote razor thin in several states. Joe Biden only carried Arizona by 10,457, Georgia by 11,779 and Wisconsin by 20,662.

The factors that appear to have made the difference:

  • Trump’s poor rating on managing the coronavirus was slightly more important than his good scores on the economy.
  • Trump’s personality flaws, which dampened his voter approval for four years, combined with his inability to damage Biden’s reputation with attacks and scandals.
  • Trump’s final Election Day surge was matched by Biden’s mail and early votes.
  • A small libertarian vote, which he did not get in Wisconsin, Georgia or Arizona, could have made a difference.

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